Detroit Tigers Rule 5 Draft Preview – Part Two

The Detroit Tigers have some talent to add.

Yesterday we looked at which catchers and infielders the Detroit Tigers might add to their roster this offseason. Today we turn our attention to the outfield and pitching mound.

Technically speaking this isn’t really a Rule 5 Draft piece, it’s more of a minor-league focused 40-man roster piece. I’m sure we’ll do a Rule 5 Draft piece later, with dozens of names to know. And then the Detroit Tigers will draft someone who didn’t make our list.

But that’s at least another month away, and so are any real Tigers roster decisions. So we’re left to make educated guesses about which minor leaguers will be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Let’s begin in the grass!

Outfielders

Adds: One

Parker Meadows – Meadows was probably the most pleasant surprise in Detroit’s system in 2022. He always had tools, but this year he finally found a swing that worked for him. A hot start in High-A West Michigan led to a quick promotion to Double-A Erie, where it took him about a month to adjust. But from June 1st to the end of the season he posted a stellar 140 wRC+ while batting .298/.376/.509 with 14 home runs and 10 steals. He is a lock to be added to the 40-man roster, and he’ll enter 2023 with an outside chance of winning a starting spot in the Tigers outfield.

Eric De La Rosa made a lot of progress in 2021, but he struggled with injuries and strikeouts this year. He won’t be protected or taken in the Rule 5 Draft, but he owns a quick bat and plenty of speed. There’s enough talent here to hold out hope for better results in 2023.

Dane Myers presents a fascinating case. He was a two-way player at Rice University, but the Tigers wanted him to pitch in pro ball. That didn’t work out terribly well, so he picked up the bat again, and has been remarkably productive. Myers is an aggressive hitter who doesn’t walk much, and his defense is closer to passable than good. But this was his first full year as a hitter, and he played all four corners while becoming the first player in Erie SeaWolves history to compile a 20-20 season.

One of the hallmarks of the San Francisco Giants during Scott Harris’ tenure was their deft use of platoons, particularly in the outfield. The Detroit Tigers suddenly find themselves with a very left-handed outfield, and they could use some right-handed power. Myers demolished southpaws this year, hitting .366 with 11 home runs in just 88 plate appearances (1.236 OPS). That may not be enough to get him added to the 40-man roster now, but don’t be surprised if he sees the big leagues in the next year or two.

Bryant Packard quickly became a darling of the Detroit Tigers prospect community after he was drafted in the 6th round in 2019. But not much has gone right since his promising pro debut, as injuries have held him to just 135 games over the past two seasons. When Packard is healthy he looks the part of a big-league hitter, with hard line-drive contact to all fields. He also remade his body, turning himself into a solid outfielder and a legitimate threat to steal bases, but he’s still a corner-only defender who needs to show more patience and over-the-fence power.

Make it a 4-for-4 day with 4 RBIs as Parker Meadows demolishes this baseball. It’s his 8th home run with Erie, and his 12th overall. pic.twitter.com/cMg7Gi7XJi

— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) July 28, 2022

Starting Pitchers

Adds: One

Reese Olson – Detroit’s trade return for Daniel Norris at the 2021 deadline, Olson quickly established himself as one of the better arms in the system. This year he set a new Erie SeaWolves record with 168 strikeouts in one season, and he walked just 38. He shows solid feel for four different offerings, and his changeup and slider are both plus pitches at times. But he ran into some issues with fastball command, which led to 15 home runs and an elevated ERA. He may ultimately move to the bullpen, but the Tigers will certainly continue to develop him as a starter.

Austin Bergner had a bit of a strange year. His velocity was down 3-4 MPH from 2021, sitting in the 89-92 range, but he was dominant through 19 starts in Double-A Erie, posting a 2.38 ERA. Then his ERA skyrocketed to 6.91 through eight outings in Triple-A Toledo. He has a starter’s arsenal and solid command, but he may need to find his velocity again to reach the big leagues.

Carlos Guzman is an above-average athlete with a good arm. His early results in West Michigan last year were pretty ugly, but after June he compiled a 2.72 ERA over 19 outings and 76 innings. He doesn’t really have a reliable out pitch, but his stuff may play up a bit out of the bullpen.

That 6.37 ERA for Marco Jimenez jumps off the page, and the rest of his numbers aren’t terribly pretty either. But he has a big arm, consistently firing his fastball 97-99 MPH, and he backs it up with a slider that flashes promise, and a usable changeup. His body, command, and delivery all point to a future in the bullpen, but he’s a name to know for the future.

Chance Kirby fits the mold of an A.J. Ladwig, Warwick Saupold, or Spenser Watkins. He doesn’t have plus stuff and he never shows up on prospect lists, but he just quietly goes out and does his job. His 2.62 ERA was more than a run lower than anyone else with 100+ innings in the Eastern League this year, and he could be a fit for any team looking for pitching depth.

Keider Montero first drew notice in 2019 thanks to a 3,000-RPM breaking ball and a fastball that touches the mid-90s. He has developed a full arsenal now, though he’s still learning how to put everything together as a starter. It’s possible, though not probable, that a team could target him, hope he can survive in a big-league bullpen for a year, and then continue developing him as a starter.

Reese Olson pitches around a triple in the first by racking up three strikeouts for Erie. @Greg_Gania calls them all. pic.twitter.com/bx96cJZK0C

— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) September 20, 2022

Relief Pitchers

Adds: None…probably

If there is one surprise add to the Detroit Tigers 40-man roster this year, I’d place my bet on Elvis Alvarado.

It would be a remarkable ascent for Alvarado, who began his pro career as an outfielder. He switched to the mound, and then was traded from the Nationals to the Mariners in 2019. He compiled a 6.60 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 32 walks in Low-A Modesto last year, and the Tigers were able land him with the seventh pick in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. The Tigers development staff worked wonders on Alvarado, and he climbed from Low-A to Double-A while piling up 63 strikeouts against just 18 walks. His headline offering is a 95-100 MPH fastball with good armside movement, and he also throws a slider and a changeup. The secondary pitches need work, but it’s still pretty rare to find a pitcher who can hit triple digits and throw strikes.

Zack Hess’ numbers have asterisks because they are from 2021. He had Tommy John surgery in January and may not be ready to pitch until the middle of next year. But sometimes teams actually target injured relief arms because Rule 5 picks only need to be on the active roster for 90 days. So a team that picks Hess could get a few months of evaluation time while he continues his rehab. When healthy he shows a solid fastball/slider combo.

Andrew Magno presents hitters with an unusual look. He’s a lefty with an over-the-top delivery, which makes both his low-90s fastball and 12-6 curveball play well. He may struggle against more advanced right-handed hitters, but they weren’t a problem for him in 2022.

Brendan White is a slider specialist who spent almost all year as Erie’s bullpen ace. His fastball sits in the 93-95 MPH range, he throws strikes, and his high-spin breaking ball is legitimate out pitch for him.

Adam Wolf has plenty of experience starting, but late in the year he became the left-handed bullpen complement to White. He’s a tall, lanky southpaw with a low-3/4 arm slot and a full arsenal of pitches, including an above-average cutter and a fastball that can touch the mid-90s.