TMLR Off-season Mailbag

Taking your Tigers prospect questions

We put out the call for some Tigers prospects questions, and you delivered. So let’s get into it!

1). Who do you see exceeding/not meeting expectations this year?
2). Assuming more pitchers are traded, who is getting the call up this year?

— Deadly Ninja Bees (@deadly_bees) December 10, 2022

Chris – For the most part we tried to reflect our expectations in this year’s rankings. But our democratic process inevitably meant some players ended up higher or lower on the TMLR list than on our personal lists. So, in that regard I think Roberto Campos will likely outperform our ranking (18th now). I’m not 100% sold he will reach his ceiling, but his main issue — hitting far too many ground balls — seems somewhat fixable to me. And everything else is there. He hits the ball very hard, he lowered his strikeout rate by 5% while climbing a level, and he’s a good athlete, If he figures out how to elevate the ball more frequently, look out.

On the flip side is Gage Workman, who we have ranked 19th. I didn’t have him in my top 30. He’s one of the more frustrating players we’ve watched over the past few seasons, because his tools are great. He’s fast, he can be an above-average glove at third base, and when he makes contact he does a ton of damage. When he’s hot he scares the hell out of opposing managers. But to me his lack of plate discipline is disqualifying. You just don’t see minor leaguers post a 40% strikeout rate over a full season and then go on to have any success at the MLB level. From a national ranking perspective, I suspect Izaac Pacheco will exceed most expectations, while Jace Jung will likely not meet expectations. But more on that later.

As for part two of this question, Rogelio mentioned a few probable pitcher call-ups in this piece over at Woodward Sports the other day, The first promotions will likely be the new 40-man adds, So Reese Olson and Brendan White. After that the most likely additions will be Wilmer Flores and Austin Bergner, and I wouldn’t rule out left-handed waiver claim Sean Guenther. It’s possible Ty Madden and Brant Hurter could make their way to Detroit by the end of the season, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Rogelio – As far as exceeding expectations this year, I would have to say it is Danny Serretti, based on where we have him on the list (22nd). He came right out of the draft and moved up three levels quicker than any Tigers prospect I can remember. He walks and played solid defense. While he has the projection to be a light-hitting infielder, if he can continue to show a knack for getting on base, he may rise up to Detroit sooner than later.

I agree with Chris on Campos. When I saw him down in Lakeland earlier in the year he hit everything hard on the ground. He was one of the few hitters in the FSL that hit balls over 100 MPH on a consistent basis. Once he puts some air on it, he could easily be in the top 10 by the end of the summer.

Jose De La Cruz is in an interesting spot. He was often discussed a few summers back, but not as much anymore. I think he turns it around this year and makes some headway.

As far as pitchers go, wouldn’t be surprised to see the names mentioned above and someone like Adam Wolf, who adds a different element as a lefty. He took some big strides in Erie and I think the evolution could continue.

From Benjamin Kaufman on the Tigers Discord channel:

“Are there any ‘off the radar’ Tigers prospects (IE not on any top lists, nobody really knows about them) that you think could have a big breakout this year? Like a Kerry Carpenter type dude who just explodes out of nowhere?”

First, we have to acknowledge the rarity of what Kerry Carpenter did last year. He was a 24-year-old in Double-A who wasn’t on a single national prospect list, and then hit 30 home runs in the minors and six more in the majors. That sort of thing happens a handful of times a decade across all of baseball. We can’t think of a Tigers minor-leaguer who has done that since at least 2000.

So, that ain’t happening again. But, we can happily take some guesses at under-the-radar types who might perform their way into actual prospect status.

Rogelio – Carlos Pena. He moved up a few levels last season based on need, but he has pitched in the Dominican Winter League this off-season. One of things he said during an interview was to attack the strike zone more with his fastball. He throws a fastball, curve, and a changeup. While he may end up being an org arm, he showed good strikeout numbers in Lakeland and West Michigan in 2022. If he can continue that adjustment at Erie and Toledo, where he struggled in limited usage, then he could be someone who could be useful. Keep in mind, he signed the with the Tigers at the age of 20 so he has been only pitching professionally for four seasons.

Chris – There are a couple of younger outfielders in the system who I want to choose, but neither have really shown signs of being able to hit in pro ball. So I’ll go with someone whose breakout may have already happened: Corey Joyce.

The Tigers took Joyce in the 12th round of the 2019 draft out of North Carolina Central, where he posted an excellent .348/.439/.527 line over three seasons. Injuries and the pandemic held him to fewer than 350 total plate appearances between 2019-2021, but he finally saw regular playing time last year. And he performed pretty darn well. Most of that time was in High-A West Michigan, where he hit .240 with 20 extra-base hits and a 17.5% walk rate in 63 games. His OPS fell to .675 over 18 games at the Double-A level, but then he went bonkers for a week in Triple-A. Joyce was 10-for-18 with two doubles, two home runs, and five walks to three strikeouts for the Mud Hens. He finished the season with a 144 wRC+ across three levels, which was behind only Carpenter and Colt Keith among Tigers farmhands with at least 200 plate appearances.

So why isn’t Joyce considered a prospect? Scouts are generally very skeptical of his hit tool. He uses an uphill swing and a pull-heavy approach that doesn’t lend itself to hitting for very high average. And though he is one of the more patient hitters in the system, big-league caliber pitchers can be beat him in the zone. He’s also just an average runner, and while he can fake it on the left side of the infield, his best position is second base. The end result is a player who looks an awful lot like Zack Short. That said, he’ll be 24 for most of the 2023 season, and he still has just under 700 professional plate appearances, so perhaps he can take another step forward next season.

Parker Meadows, what are his chance of coming North in April?

— FieldDiamond (@FieldDiamond) December 11, 2022

We’ll put this one at under 5% right now. Meadows was probably ready for a promotion to Triple-A Toledo by the end of last season, but Erie’s playoff run gave him a chance to play meaningful games. We think he probably needs at least half a season with the Mud Hens, but he’s also one of just two natural center fielders on Detroit’s 40-man roster. Akil Baddoo can play center, and Ryan Kreidler played some emergency center field last year. But if Riley Greene were to suffer another injury in spring training, Parker Meadows would likely be his replacement. It’s possible he could outperform Baddoo and Carpenter in spring training and win a job outright, but we think he’s not quite ready for that.

Will Higginbotham throw a pitch for the Tigers in 2023? I’ve seen another blogger post more than once that he is expected to make his MLB debut this season.

— Shhh! Joe’s sleeping (@jnholloway) December 11, 2022

This is a tossup for us. Higginbotham has a good arm, and it looks like his fastball will play against quality hitters. He sits in the 93-95 MPH range with a high-3/4 arm slot that is pretty uncommon from left-handed pitchers. That gives his heater nice ride at the top of the zone, and along with his herky-jerky delivery, adds some deception that seems to make the pitch play better than its pure velocity. Unfortunately, that arm slot doesn’t do any favors for his slider, which lacks the sort of horizontal movement needed to neutralize left-handed batters. He will occasionally throw a solid slider, but most are below-average, and when he leaves the pitch up it tends to get rocked. There’s something to work with here, but as currently constructed, Higginbotham looks pretty similar to up-and-down lefties of recent vintage, like Miguel Del Pozo and Jose Fernandez.

Love it! You sure don’t think much of Jung though.

— JoeM (@JohnMay30761467) December 14, 2022

This technically isn’t a question, but it’s a good chance to talk a bit more about our methodology and philosophy. Most of the big, national prospect sites do MLB draft rankings. And, generally speaking, they hew pretty closely to their pre-draft evaluations for at least one ranking cycle. We read scouting reports and looked at plenty of video of Jung from college, but 90% of our evaluation of him comes from our own looks in pro ball.

And ultimately we were just underwhelmed by what we saw from Jung. He put together patient, professional at-bats, and he almost never expanded outside of the zone. But he was susceptible to sliders located down and in, showed very little in the way of game power, and generally looked slow and unathletic. He was a gamer on defense and made plays when the ball was near him, but the total package was reminiscent of Kody Clemens.

And it was particularly striking to watch Jung on the same field as Izaac Pacheco, who is rated lower than Jung on nearly every public list. Pacheco is two years younger than Jung. But he showed similar hitting ability and patience, while also being bigger, stronger, faster, and better on defense.

But this brings us to our view of prospect lists as merely a snapshot in time. We take these rankings seriously, but we certainly don’t view them as gospel. There are a handful of reasons Jung may not have looked impressive to us. He dealt with some injury issues last year, the jump to professional ball can be hard on anyone, and it was the end of a very long season for him. It’s entirely possible he comes out in 2023 and absolutely rakes. And at that point we will gladly push him up our list.

Thoughts on how far off the list was Sawyer Gipson Long? Amazing how Avila trades sour most reliable pen arm for a guy not even on the Twins top 30 and Harris comes in and moves Jimenez for a guy now in our top 5. Thank you Avila.

— Jeff Longschneider (@mcastiglione88) December 14, 2022

Sawyer Gipson-Long did get one top-25 vote from our staff. And he probably would have landed just outside our top 30 if we expanded the list. He’s a big, sturdy kid who pounds the strike zone with three fringe-average pitches. His slider shows some promise, but ultimately he looks more like emergency starter depth than a future rotation arm. Teams need players like this in their system — the Tigers certainly did last year — but we don’t expect him to have sustained success against big-league hitters.