Detroit Tigers Top 25 Prospects: May Update

At Tigers Minor League Report we tend to fall back on a few common sayings when talking about prospects. Things like “player development isn’t linear,” and “teams show you what they think of their prospects,” or “prospect lists are just a snapshot in time.”

We can’t take credit for any of these sayings. In fact, in the prospect world they are essentially cliches, even though they are all true.

So why do we mention this? Because today we’re unveiling a small update to our Detroit Tigers Top 25 prospects list.

We have a handful of reasons. First, there are a few players, like Joey Wentz, Mason Englert, and Ryan Kreidler, who have graduated, or will soon graduate out of prospect status.

The second reason for the update is simply the passage of time. Yes, we’re really only a few weeks into the minor-league season. But we made our last list back in late 2022. Since then we’ve seen a full spring training, a variety of injuries, and some notable early season performances.

It’s time for a new snapshot.

This isn’t a full reorganization by any means. Our scouting reports are staying the same, for now. We just want our rankings to reflect a little of what we’ve seen and heard over the past few months. So, here’s our updated list. We’ve broken it into five groups of five to offer a few notes. Enjoy!

The TMLR Tigers Top 25

There’s a trio of newcomers here to replace the aforementioned graduations and the injured Elvis Alvarado and Jose De La Cruz. Garrett Burhenn earned a mention in our first noteworthy minor-leaguer list, and he sneaks into the back of the list. Troy Melton was Detroit’s 4th-round pick in 2022. He has the build of a workhorse starter, but right now he’s throwing a lot of mid-to-high-90s fastballs with occasional flashes of a decent secondary offering. He’s somewhat reminiscent of former Tigers reliever Ryan Perry.

Gage Workman is looking a lot like Gage Workman so far, while Dylan Smith struggled before heading to the injured list with forearm tightness. Manuel Sequera is the big mover here. The former infielder has played most of his games in left field this season and is off to a bit of a slow start, but he’ll be 20 all season and flashes plus power. Rogelio liked what he saw from Sequera in live looks last year, and he remains a bit higher on him than Chris. But both had him in their individual top 25 lists (16 and 24).

Tigers Prospects 20-16

There aren’t any huge movers in this quintet, though there are some notable developments. Brant Hurter has been the most consistent starter in the system in 2023, though his ceiling hasn’t changed. The big lefty still likely tops out as a swingman, roughly like former Tigers prospect Brian Flynn. Danny Serretti moves up a bit, but he’s the player Chris (13th) and Rogelio (25th) disagreed about the most.

Josh Crouch has been overwhelmed by the pitching at the Double-A level, and he needs to continue to play regularly to work on his defense, so he was sent back to High-A West Michigan. Peyton Graham is off to a slow start, and we were lower on Reese Olson relative to the rest of the scouting world, so he stays static despite a very rough beginning to his season.

Tigers Prospects 15-11

Well, here’s a chaotic group. Keider Montero is our second-biggest mover, jumping 12 spots on the strength of a few dominant outings. Truth be told, when it comes to raw stuff, there isn’t a huge difference between Montero and Jackson Jobe. They both sit in the mid-90s with their fastballs, they both flash breaking balls with elite spin rates, and they’re both learning how to pitch. Jobe has the better present changeup, but Montero has taken steps forward in his pitching ability, which is reflected in this move. Brendan White also leaps way up to 14. Honestly, that’s probably a bit of a guilt-driven overreaction from not having him on our last top 25, but he belongs on this list somewhere.

Andre Lipcius is off to a slow start in Toledo, but he was very good in spring training. And he’s still doing the things we like — working long at-bats, taking walks, and playing solid defense around the diamond. Wenceel Perez is back from injury and flashing signs of his power and speed (six extra-base hits, four steals in 19 games). Unfortunately, he’s also flashing his iffy defense, with six errors. And Cristian Santana is our biggest faller, dropping from a top-five prospect in the system to out of the top ten. This is another big gap between Chris (14th) and Rogelio (6th). Whereas Rogelio doesn’t want to overreact to Santana’s admittedly brutal start to the season, Chris thinks Santana was simply ranked a bit too high before.

Tigers Prospects 10-6

It’s mostly status quo here. Dillon Dingler’s defense will get him to the big leagues, and if he can make a bit more contact he could be a regular. Jace Jung has started flashing more game power recently, but he needs to do that more regularly. Ty Madden’s excellent debut has been followed up by three pedestrian outings, but here he slips mostly because of the ascent of two others. Izaac Pacheco holds steady despite some uneven performances early in the year. Jackson Jobe is the only real mover in this list. Both Chris (4th) and Rogelio (10th) dropped him because of missed development time due to his injury.

The Top 5

Not having a new number one prospect is perhaps a bit anticlimactic, but there’s some big movement here. Roberto Campos made the biggest jump of all, leaping into the 5th spot. It’s not necessarily because of his production, though a 104 wRC+ for a 19-year-old in High-A is nothing to sneeze at. Mostly it’s for how he has looked on both sides of the ball. Campos looks mature, comfortable, and athletic. He’s been hitting the ball hard all year, and it feels like he might explode in a few months.

The other big mover is Parker Meadows, whose strong spring was enough for us to believe 2022 wasn’t a fluke. He’s not tearing the cover off the ball in Toledo, but all five tools are flashing at various points in each series. We think he has officially raised his floor to that of a 4th outfielder, and there’s still a good chance he becomes a solid regular in a few seasons.

Parker Meadows smashes a 412-foot home run to center to begin game two of tonight’s doubleheader. That’s his 3rd homer of the year. pic.twitter.com/vyauM8hHo1

— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) April 22, 2023

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