Detroit Tigers 2023 MLB Draft Preview: Pitchers

The Detroit Tigers have the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft

The Detroit Tigers have just two more weeks to decide who they’ll pick in this year’s MLB Draft. We took a look at the historic crop of outfielders about a month ago, because that’s the most likely direction the Tigers will take.

All the public mock drafts suggest the Tigers are laser-focused on college bats right now, but no one really knows. Could it be an artifice? A bluff? Subterfuge? Skullduggery? (Closes thesaurus) We won’t know until they announce the pick in a fortnight (closes thesaurus for real this time).

So let’s make sure we cover all bases and touch on this year’s pitching class. It’s headlined by LSU right-hander Paul Skenes, who is perhaps the best pitching prospect in more than a decade. But otherwise the class is relatively average. And in terms of left-handed pitching, it’s among the worst classes in history.

Let’s start at the top.

Detroit Tigers Option at Pick 3

Paul Skenes – RHP – LSU

Anyone reading this piece probably already knows who Paul Skenes is, but let’s run down his resume anyway. It begins with his fastball, which sits at 98 mph and runs up to 102 with seeming ease. He backs that up with a nasty upper-80s slider and an above-average to plus changeup that he rarely throws because he doesn’t have to. Skenes pounds the zone with quality strikes, he holds his velocity deep into games, and his mechanics are clean and repeatable.

He just broke the SEC record for strikeouts in a season, and he was named the Most Outstanding Player at the College World Series. There are only a handful of pitchers in the world with this combination of stuff and polish, and Skenes could probably pitch in the big leagues tomorrow. The only real downside here is that he’s a pitcher, and all pitchers eventually break. It doesn’t sound like the Tigers will take him if he’s available, but again, who really knows?

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1670219269089513474?s=20

Other Potential Top-10 Picks

Skenes is the only pitcher really being mentioned in the top five this year, but there are some quality arms expected to go well in the draft. Wake Forest righty Rhett Lowder squared off with Skenes in one of the most anticipated games in College World Series history, and he more than held his own.

With his long hair, lanky frame, and effortful delivery, Lowder is a bit reminiscent of Mike Clevinger in his prime. Lowder sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, and his slider and changeup both flash as plus pitches. It’s possible he throws even harder in pro ball, but Wake Forest does a terrific job of optimizing pitchers, so he may already be close to a finished product.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1639598264734429188?s=20

Thanks to a dominant 2022, Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander came into the season as the best pitching prospect in the class. But he regressed in terms of performance, command, and stuff this year, finishing the season with a 4.75 ERA. To be clear, he still retained his mid-90s velocity and four-pitch mix this season, but the shape of his pitches changed. Some speculate that was the result of minor mechanical tweaks, while others worry about a potential injury. Whatever the reason, Dollander heads into the draft as a bit of a wild card. He could slide out of the top ten. He might also end up the steal of the draft.

he ended up getting the loss but Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander looked spectacular yesterday vs. a strong South Carolina lineup. 13 K & 0 BB over 5.1 IP

he may be clearly behind Paul Skenes now but I'd still be excited to take him in the 6-12 range. the FB is special when it's on pic.twitter.com/h3tFoRPwBf

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) May 21, 2023

If there’s a bigger wild card in the draft, it just might be Florida righty Hurston Waldrep. It feels odd to say this in a class with Paul Skenes, but Waldrep may actually have the best stuff in the draft. Waldrep’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, but it’s arguably his worst pitch. His upper-80s sweeping slider has registered spin rates north of 3,300 RPM, his low-80s curve has tons of depth, and his split-change is absolutely diabolical. And yet, for all that stuff, he struggled to 4.16 ERA this year. There are questions about his command, his high-effort delivery, and his pitch usage, but some impressive late-season performances might push him into the top ten.

Hurston Waldrep's 9Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/M9zJzDNDYx

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 19, 2023

Detroit Tigers options at 37 and 45

The Tigers may stay away from pitching entirely in the early rounds this year, but there could be some enticing arms available after the first round. We’ll start with the top high-school arms, who may well go 20+ picks higher than this. But there’s always an outside chance a prep arm prices himself lower in the draft.

Right-Handed Prep Arms

The top prep arm this year appears to be Oregon righty Noble Meyer, who is from the same school as 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel. He’s already showing mid-90s velocity with a wipeout slider and plenty of room to grow. Bryce Eldridge may not pitch at all, because he’s actually a two-way player with huge power in his bat. But he does hit the mid-90s with his fastball and shows solid feel for his slider and change. Charlee Soto blew up (metaphorically, of course) during the showcase circuit last summer. He’s young for the class, with ideal size, a sinker that has reached the upper 90s, a promising slider, and a terrific changeup.

‘23 Charlee Soto (FL) came out working 95-98 mph. Slider 86-88 mph with spin up above 2400 RPMs. CH 88-89 effectively killing spin. Has settled in nicely as day goes on. #PGDraft #PGShowdown pic.twitter.com/6eLJvyiqaT

— Perfect Game Florida (@Florida_PG) March 25, 2023

Every draft has at least one Texan high-school flamthrower, and this year it’s Travis Sykora. His heater has good shape and sits in the upper 90s, touching 101 mph. He also shows feel for a slider and a splitter, but they need continued development. Another draft staple is the prep spin monster (see Jobe, Jackson) and the 2023 version appears to be New Yorker Josh Knoth. He’s smaller than the rest of the giants on this list, but he still reaches the mid-90s and features a pair of breaking balls with spin rates that exceed 3,000 RPM. And we finish with Blake Wolters, an athletic pitcher from Illinois who saw his stuff tick up this spring, with a fastball reaching the upper-90s and his slider flashing as a plus offering.

One of my favorite pitchers in the 2023 draft: RHP Josh Knoth (NY).

Fastball up to 98 mph, a pair of sharp breaking balls he can spin above 3,000 rpm, threw a 19-strikeout perfect game this spring, will still be 17 on draft day. pic.twitter.com/90KaKYY0RJ

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 25, 2023

Left-Handed Prep Arms

Thomas White has long been considered the best prep lefty, and one of the top three high-school pitchers overall in the class. He sits comfortably in the mid-90s with his fastball, though he doesn’t always command it well. White complements the heater with an upper-70s curve and a mid-80s change with above-average potential. Cameron Johnson is a big, sturdy pitcher with a fastball that has reached 98 mph and a slider with above-average potential. His changeup needs work and his delivery isn’t as consistent as you’d like, but there’s plenty or arm talent here.

This would not be a fun AB for a lefty. LHP Cameron Johnson's (@IMGABaseball) MLB Combine bullpen session.

FB: 95-96, T97
SL: 79-82
CH: 86-87

No. 40 on the BA Draft Board and the No. 2 lefthander in the class. pic.twitter.com/5MmeCTOKOK

— Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) June 22, 2023

Alex Clemmey has an electric fastball that reaches 99 mph with high-spin rates, and he also shows a slurvy breaking ball with plus potential. But scouts are worried his future may be in the bullpen because of his delivery and some issues throwing strikes. It’s a pretty good year for prep pitchers in Oregon. Lefty Paul Wilson is the son of former Giants pitcher Trevor Wilson, and he owns a low-90s fastball and three promising secondary offerings. Adam Hachman is something of a wild card in the draft. He went down for Tommy John surgery in April, which complicates things, and he never really showed consistent secondary stuff or command. But, when he was healthy, he had one of the more impressive fastballs in the entire class.

College Pitchers

Juaron Watts-Brown looks the part on the mound, with an athletic delivery, and low-90s fastball with good shape, and a plus slider. But he posted a 5.03 ERA this year thanks largely to walking 48 batters in 82.1 innings. There’s plenty of upside here if an org believes they can improve JWB’s strike throwing and/or velocity. Brandon Sproat was drafted in the 3rd round last year, but he chose not to sign with the Mets. Sproat has always had impressive stuff, including a fastball that has touched 101 mph and a slider and changeup that both flash plus. But his fastball plays down and he struggles to throw strikes.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1669857714283986944?s=20

Campbell righty Cade Kuehler owns a mid-90s fastball with terrific shape, a plus slider, and he’ll throw four other pitches. But he doesn’t have any physical projection remaining and he doesn’t always throw quality strikes, leading to reliever concerns. Joe Whitman is a true late-riser in this year’s draft, and he may even sneak into the first round. He transferred from Purdue to Kent State, had a terrific year, and then impressed with an outstanding start in the Cape Cod League.

An up-close look at Kent State lefty Joe Whitman, who looked great today against EMU. Held velo throughout; legit slider. Leads MAC in ERA (2.61), 3rd in Ks (88).

7.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 5K (W, 8-1).

FB: 90-95 (93.1) | 2392 spin | 2 s/m
SL: 82-87 (84.6) | 2697 spin | 11 s/m pic.twitter.com/XEdF59l1ye

— Burke Granger (@burkegranger) May 14, 2023

We finish today with two very large men. Vanderbilt lefty Hunter Owen is built like a defensive end and he owns a mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, and a usable curve and change. He throws strikes, but was limited to just 64 innings this year because of shoulder soreness. And then there’s Tanner Witt, who was a top-two round talent in the 2020 draft, but he elected to go to Texas. He’s the son of former big-leaguer Kevin Witt, and he was looking like a probable first rounder before he went down with Tommy John surgery in 2022. And while Witt has returned to the mound this year, neither his stuff nor his results have impressed much.

Tanner Witt (@ChathamAnglers | @TexasBaseball | '23) made his return to the CCBL w/ his first pre-draft start yesterday. FB 90-93, CH 79-80, CB in the low 70's. Less than ideal outing going 1.0 INN w/ 6 ERs but Witt is still coming back from TJ surgery
@B_Sakowski_PG #PGCape pic.twitter.com/EqWrUWyGBk

— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) June 24, 2023