Making sense of Matt Manning going to Toledo

Detroit Tigers right-hander Matt Manning was optioned to Triple-A Toledo on March 23 

Tigers fans may be confused after Matt Manning had a strong performance this spring and during the 2023 season. He started 15 games and finished 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA last year, holding opponents to a .212 batting average against and posting an outstanding 1.04 WHIP.

It wasn’t exactly a season that would suggest a demotion to Triple-A the next year. Even we thought he’d begin the season in Detroit.

I’m going to attempt to make sense of this, but it’ll never be fully known why he wasn’t a part of the opening day roster.

The most obvious guess would be depth. The Tigers have impressive pitching depth at all levels, especially in competition for the two final rotation spots. In the end Manning lost the battle to Reese Olson and Casey Mize.

But Manning pitched well this spring, too. He had a 3.38 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched, a 0.94 WHIP and a .140 BAA, albeit in a small sample size. Those are good, strong numbers.

Here’s why I believe Olson and Mize secured spots over Manning:

Home Runs

Matt Manning was always a swing-and-miss pitcher in the minors, with 478 strikeouts in 395 innings. But he has been a pitch-to-contact guy in the big leagues. His highest K/9 number (6.86) came in in 2022. And last year his K/9 ranked 191st out of 199 MLB pitchers (min. 70 IP).

There’s nothing wrong with pitching to contact, as long as you can limit damage. And Manning has historically done that, limiting home runs at an above-average rate (1.07 HR/9) since his debut in 2021. But the long ball was an issue this spring.

Manning gave up six home runs in 16 innings, which more than doubled his career average. Spring training results don’t count, but when it’s a competition everything matters. Reese Olson has allowed just one home run in 14 innings (1.22 HR/9 in 2022). And Casey Mize has greatly improved (1.53 career HR/9), as he’s yet to allow a home run this spring.

Manning’s resume suggests he won’t continue to give up home runs at this alarming rate. But with the competition he’s faced this spring, six home runs in 16 innings just won’t cut it.

Manning showed improved velocity and added new pitches to his arsenal this spring, so all is not lost. He looked like a much better pitcher. But Mize and Olson also showed improved stuff, and they did it while avoiding home run issues. So they win the jobs for now.

Hard Contact

In addition to giving up six home runs this spring, he was in the ninth percentile in Barrel percentage in 2023, and had an average allowed Exit Velocity of 90.9 MPH (seventh percentile). 

Those numbers join a 43.9 Hard Hit percentage (17th percentile) and a 38.5 Ground Ball percentage (27th percentile).

Essentially these numbers boil down to Manning being relatively lucky last year. He ranked in the bottom half of the league in most advanced pitching metrics according to Baseball Savant. His only real strengths were Extension and BB% (walk percentage). 

Manning’s xBA and xSLG (expected batting average and expected slugging) both ranked much higher than the MLB average, especially his xSLG, which was in the bottom five percent of the league.

Diving into his stats suggests he’s been a lucky pitcher. He does throw strikes and limit walks, which are desirable traits. But allowing hard contact on a consistent basis will at some point not work, as luck usually runs out.

The Good

There’s still plenty to like about Matt Manning. His fastball has good movement, and his advanced metrics were better across the board in 2022 than in 2023. And let’s not forget that his actual results last year were strong. 

His velocity has jumped up nearly 1.1 MPH during the spring, and his spin rates have been up on every pitch. Manning has also seen a decrease in exit velocity compared to his 2023 average of 90.9, with an 88.3 this spring. All of these trends exclude his first spring start against Baltimore, as there was no recorded data on Baseball Savant for that game. 

Manning also added a sweeper that has looked good so far. His slider is now significantly harder, going from an average of 82 mph last year to more than 87 mph this spring. And he has modified his changeup into more of a splitter, which is showing signs of promise.

What’s Next?

You’ve probably noticed this article has a lot of nice things to say about Matt Manning. That’s because he’s a good pitcher who has shown improvement this spring.

Manning will be up again. This wouldn’t be a conversation if Reese Olson and Casey Mize weren’t so talented, and the Tigers had the depth of a normal team. This is a great problem to have.

And Manning fans have no reason to be alarmed. There have been no signs the Tigers are looking to trade him. But with the organization’s depth, and other teams in need of pitching, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Tigers at least fielded a few phone calls.