Checking in on Colt Keith and Parker Meadows

Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are Starting Slowly

Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are in the big leagues, and the Detroit Tigers are 9-7 through 16 games. The fans must be rejoicing!

What’s that you say? Tigers fans are as angry and ornery as ever? And they already want players sent back to the minors? Yeah, that sounds about right.

We’ve spent much of the last two years posting highlights of Keith and Meadows on Twitter. And YouTube. It’s been fun. They produced a lot of good highlights. But after nearly every video at least one person would write “Call him up!” It was so common we made shirts. And now, after 16 games, people want to send them back.

This is the Tigers Minor League report. As such, we spend the overwhelming majority of our time talking about minor leaguers. But it’s always a good idea to check on old friends. And since we’ve watched an awful lot of Colt Keith and Parker Meadows over the past few years, we though maybe we could help offer a little perspective to these slow starts.

Colt Keith – Bad Luck and Good Defense

The problem: Colt Keith is batting just .193 and slugging just .211, with zero home runs.

The bright side: Keith is walking at an average rate, his strikeout rate is manageable, and he has been a plus in the field and on the basepaths.

Should you be worried: Not really. We’ve been pretty big fans of Colt Keith’s game for a few years now, so we aren’t concerned about this slow start. And the numbers are on our side.

Expected stats, like expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG), are calculated based on exit velocity and launch angle. Like all stats, particularly early in the season, they can be a bit misleading. But, generally speaking, they give us a better idea of a player’s true skill than actual outcomes. And there’s a lot of evidence to suggest Colt Keith has been unlucky so far.

Keith’s xBA is .257, or 64 points higher than his actual batting average. And his .397 xSLG is nearly 190 points higher. He currently ranks in the 75th percentile in Sweet-Spot% — a measurement of how often a hitter’s batted balls exit at an ideal launch angle. He’s hitting the ball well.

So what gives? Keith has had four different batted balls with an xBA over .500 go for outs. Beyond that, he is one of four players with multiple outs (2) on batted balls with an xBA over .900. And he’s the only player with multiple outs on xBA over .930. For the entirety of the 2023 season no one made more than three outs on such batted balls. Keith isn’t consistently crushing the ball, but when he does crush the ball he’s hitting into rotten luck.

And here’s the thing. We knew Colt Keith was faster and more athletic than people realized. We tried to tell you. But even we didn’t expect him to be the sort of plus defender he has been so far. Defensive stats can be misleading, but he’s grading out well in Outs Above Average (+3 OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (+2 DRS). And he’s passing the eye test.

If and when Keith’s hits start falling he should eventually post a wRC+ in the 105-115 range. And if he does that while playing above-average defense and running the bases well, he’s looking at a 3-4 WAR season. In other words, he is basically right on track to being what Detroit Tigers fans hoped. He just needs a little more luck, and fans just need a little more patience.

Parker Meadows – Timing and Time

The problem: Parker Meadows isn’t hitting anything. He’s batting just .061 and he’s striking out in a staggering 40% of his plate appearances.

The bright side: Meadows is running an elite walk rate (17.5%), he’s not expanding the zone, and he’s providing value with his speed and defense.

Should you be worried: Maybe? We were as high on Parker Meadows as anyone, and we think his problem is fixable. But there is no denying this looks ugly right now.

Meadows has just two hits this year. One was a swinging bunt against a changeup that could have been ruled an error. The other was a triple off a 92-mph fastball. He is currently in the midst of an 0-for-15 stretch with two walks and seven strikeouts. He’s not hitting anything, but we think his main issue is his inability to hit velocity.

What gives us a little hope is that this hasn’t been a real issue for Meadows in recent years. Below you’ll see Meadows’ results against all fastballs, fastballs thrown 95+ mph, and fastballs thrown 97+ mph. We’ve included his results last year in Triple-A, last year in the big leagues, this year in spring training, and so far in the regular season.

There are obviously some small samples here, but velocity wasn’t really an issue for Meadows last year. Right now he’s missing 35% of the fastballs swings at. That’s double his fastball whiff rate from last year. We don’t know why this is an issue, but we do think it is THE issue. Maybe sitting yesterday will help him reset his timing.

Send Them Down?

We get it. It can be excruciating watching a baseball team struggle to score. And frustration is certainly understandable after a ten-year playoff drought and an eight-year rebuild. But the Detroit Tigers have committed to playing their youth, and this is often the price to pay.

And it’s pretty easy to forget how good MLB pitchers are, and how often great hitters struggle when they first reach the majors. Aaron Judge ran a 44% strikeout rate in his first taste of the bigs. Nick Castellanos didn’t post a wRC+ above 95 until his third full season. Jackson Holliday is the #1 prospect in the sport. He is 1-for-19 with 10 strikeouts in his fist five MLB games.

It takes a lot of talent to reach the big leagues. But to stay there players need to learn how to deal with failure, and how to make adjustments. These growing pains are hard to watch, but Colt Keith and Parker Meadows have nothing left to prove in the minors.

If things are still ugly after another 25 games then a trip to Toledo is worth discussing. But, for now at least, it’s best for the fans and the Tigers to let Keith and Meadows try to overcome their struggles.