The Detroit Tigers Can’t Wait on Spencer Torkelson Much Longer
Spencer Torkelson is off to a terrible start this year. Yes, he also got off to a terrible start last year before turning things around with a strong second half. But this year just feels different.
So Chris and I have decided to team up to look at what other first base options the Detroit Tigers have. Saturday’s comments from manager A.J. Hinch make it pretty clear the Tigers are losing patience with their former first overall pick. The writing is on the wall. Torkelson needs to start performing soon, or he’s going to be replaced in the lineup.
But what options do the Detroit Tigers have? We are primarily looking at Triple-A Toledo since Scott Harris has indicated he would pull players from there. And right now there isn’t anyone standing out in Double-A Erie who could come up and be effective.
But, before we look for replacements, lets look at some historical comparisons.
Spencer Torkelson Issues
Spencer Torkelson just completed his 300th career MLB game. That seemed like a nice round number for comparison purposes. I wanted to look specifically at former Tigers first baseman, and I started with Tony Clark. Clark was also a very high draft pick (2nd overall in the 1990) and his first three seasons were close enough to 300 games to compare.
While it is difficult to compare players from different eras, it’s clear Clark outperformed Torkelson in every meaningful offensive category. And Clark might have reached the majors sooner if not for a rash of injuries in the minors. Clark went on to have a solid 15-year career, and he made the All-Star team in 2001. But he’s not exactly a Detroit Tigers legend.
Chris: One of the most frustrating things about Spencer Torkelson is that many of his issues were apparent very early in his pro career. His inability to do damage on the outer third of the plate. The struggles with middling stuff in the zone. The pop ups and streakiness. All there. I wrote an article about my concerns late in 2021, but it seems I was being too optimistic.
As Rogelio mentioned, yesterday was Torkelson’s 300th career MLB game. I figured I’d compare him to other first overall draft picks:
Yesterday was Spencer Torkelson’s 300th career MLB game. Here’s how he stacks up against 30 other 1-1 picks through their first 300 games. (*Rutschman is at 299) pic.twitter.com/4jRtkGUcLS
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrown0914) May 5, 2024
It’s not great. He isn’t a lost cause just yet, but things need to improve. And let’s take a look at a couple of charts to back up Rogelio’s point about this year’s bad start feeling different than last year’s.
| Year | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
| 2023 | 2 | .214 | .269 | .316 | 54 |
| 2024 | 0 | .205 | .274 | .279 | 62 |
The raw numbers don’t look much different than last year. And of course he went on to hit 29 homers (with a 118 wRC+) over his final 128 games in 2023.
But, when we look under the hood, things get scary. Spencer Torkelson was hitting the ball hard and running into a ton of bad luck last year. This year? Not so much:
| Year | xAVG | xSLG | EV | Whiff% | HardHit% |
| 2023 | .254 | .424 | 90.7 | 21.6% | 45.2% |
| 2024 | .181 | .262 | 88.0 | 26.5% | 35.9% |
There’s nothing in the underlying batted ball data to suggest a breakout is coming for Spencer Torkelson. And thus we look to Toledo for other options.
Spencer Torkelson Replacements
Rogelio: Keston Hiura has an upward mobility clause that lets him opt out June 1st if he hasn’t been called up to Detroit. At this point why not give him a try? Yes, his walk rate down in Toledo gives you pause (6.1%), but let’s look at the advanced numbers.
xBA: .272
xSLG: .475
wOBA: (weighted on-base Average) .341
Whiff: 32.2%
His expected slugging percentage is second only to Dillon Dingler. Hiura has hit for power at the big league level but struggled with strikeouts. This year in Toledo he has four home runs, including two against breaking balls.
But most of his success has come against below-average fastballs. He has just three hits and zero barrels against pitches thrown 94+ MPH, with a 20% whiff rate. Considering the significant difference between MLB and Triple-A, you have to wonder how much Hiura could really contribute based on his current performance.
Of course, Torkelson hasn’t hit much of anything this year. He has only four hits off 94+ MPH+ this year, with zero barrels and a 15.8% whiff rate. At a certain point it makes sense to try Hiura and hope he gets hot.
Chris: Hiura has played only first base this year, so he’s the natural choice to replace Torkelson. But the Detroit Tigers DO have another first baseman on their roster in Mark Canha. So maybe we can find another outfielder or DH on the Mud Hens roster?
| Player | BA | 94+ | SLG | Bar | Whiff% |
| Baddoo | .276 | .250 | .510 | 9 | 35.2 |
| Bigbie | .224 | .333 | .327 | 8 | 30.5 |
| Dingler | .243 | .091 | .446 | 7 | 26.4 |
| Jung | .252 | .235 | .477 | 9 | 34.7 |
| Kennedy | .264 | .100 | .458 | 1 | 26.2 |
| Madris | .265 | .353 | .470 | 5 | 29.7 |
| Malloy | .279 | .462 | .462 | 3 | 32.4 |
| Vilade | .342 | .222 | .566 | 4 | 28.4 |
No one really jumps off the page there. Ryan Vilade is off to an excellent start and he plays a ton of positions, but it looks like he’s doing most of his damage against junk. Ditto Dillon Dingler and Buddy Kennedy.
It may actually be time to call up Justyn-Henry Malloy. There are swing-and-miss issues, in-zone whiff issues, and defensive issues. But at least he’s hitting velocity, and he’s batting .400 with a home run against sliders so far.
But maybe there just isn’t a good in-house answer. Perhaps, as our friend Brandon Day suggested, the Tigers should pick up the phone and contact Brandon Belt’s agent.
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