What a Tarik Skubal Trade Would Look Like

The Detroit Tigers probably shouldn’t trade Tarik Skubal

The Detroit Tigers have a legitimate ace in Tarik Skubal. He is clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball. And over the past calendar year he has been THE best pitcher in baseball, by a significant margin. Teams give players like Skubal $25+ million a year to pitch for them.

But Detroit Tigers fans, jaundiced by eight years of terrible offense and losing, can’t seem to stop talking about trading Tarik Skubal. The prevailing theory is the Tigers can find pitching anywhere, but they need top-tier bats if they ever want to compete. It’s not entirely untrue, though true aces are still very hard to find.

So let’s find out what a Tarik Skubal trade might actually look like. We’ll discuss the complicating factors with Skubal, some similar trades from the past, and what kind of players the Tigers could expect in a trade.

Tarik Skubal – Contract and Complications

Tarik Skubal is cheap. He’s making just $2.65 million this year, and even if he doesn’t throw another pitch he will have provided the Detroit Tigers with roughly $25-32 million in excess value.

Skubal is under team control through the 2026 season, meaning his salary will be artificially suppressed for another two years. He’s certainly due for a fairly dramatic pay raise, but he’ll still be massive bargain. He may make $25 million total over the next two seasons, and he’ll probably be worth 2-3 times that much.

There are two complicating factors here. The first is that Tarik Skubal already has two major surgeries on his left arm. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2016, and flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022. The second is his agent, Scott Boras, whose clients almost always go to free agency.

To put it in the most alarmist terms possible, every pitch Tarik Skubal throws could be his last. And every start he makes for the Detroit Tigers lessens his trade value. That’s what the pro trade-Skubal crowd believes, at least.

So, in Skubal we have a Cy Young caliber pitcher making peanuts. He has 2+ years of team control remaining, elevated injury risk, and he’s highly unlikely to sign a long-term extension. What would trading a pitcher like that get the Tigers?

Tarik Skubal Trade Comparisons

There are never any perfect one-for-one trade examples, but recent history does give us a handful of useful comparisons. Let’s take a look, courtesy of our friends at Baseball Reference:

Trade Comp One

December 29, 2020: Blake Snell traded by the Tampa Bay Rays to the San Diego Padres for Blake Hunt (minors), Cole Wilcox (minors), Francisco Mejia and Luis Patiño.

Particulars: Snell was a few years removed from winning the AL Cy Young award, but he was coming off two mediocre seasons. He had three years of team control remaining. Patino and Mejia were both top-30 prospects with some MLB time. Wilcox was San Diego’s 3rd round pick that year, though he was paid like the 15th overall pick. Hunt was an intriguing young catcher with defensive chops and some power potential.

Verdict: Yuck. Patino was the prize here, but he flopped in Tampa. The White Sox acquired him for cash, then cut him, and he was reclaimed by San Diego. He had Tommy John in April. Mejia spent a few years as a decent backup catcher in Tampa. He’s been with Milwaukee’s Triple-A club all year. Wilcox dealt with injuries and is now 24 in Double-A, showing solid results but middling stuff. Hunt was traded to Seattle for a 24-year-old A-ball catcher last December.

Trade Comp Two

July 30, 2011: Ubaldo Jimenez traded by the Colorado Rockies to the Cleveland Indians for Joe Gardner (minors), Matt McBride, Alex White, and Drew Pomeranz.

Particulars: Jimenez is probably the best Rockies pitcher ever, coming off the best pitching season in Rockies history. He wasn’t as good in 2011, but the thinking was he just needed to get out of Colorado. He had 2.5 years of team control remaining. Pomeranz and White were the big gets here. Both were former first-round picks, with Pomeranz considered a top-40 prospect and White a top-70 prospect in all of baseball. Gardner was a ground-ball specialist with some rotation upside, and McBride was essentially minor-league depth at first base.

Verdict: This is another ugly one, though it seems clear Colorado was trying to get as much pitching help as possible. Gardner never made it out of Double-A. McBride did get into about 90 MLB games, where he hit .201 and was worth -1.5 WAR. White did not take kindly to Coors Field, compiling a 6.30 ERA with the Rockies over 30 games. He was traded to the Astros, had Tommy John surgery, and was out of affiliated baseball by 2016. Pomeranz had little success with the Rockies, was traded for Brett Anderson, and then had a couple of solid seasons with San Diego and Boston.

Trade Comp Three

July 31, 2018: Chris Archer traded by the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz.

Particulars: Archer was a two-time All-Star, a strikeout specialist, and one of the more durable pitchers in baseball when Pittsburgh traded for him. He had 2.5 years of team control remaining. Glasnow and Meadows were former top-20 prospects in all of baseball, and both had seen some time in the big leagues. Baz was Pittsburgh’s first-round pick in 2017 and was considered a top-100 prospect at the time.

Verdict: Pittsburgh’s front office was desperate to make a playoff run, and the team was riding high after going on a 16-4 run. But even at the time this was viewed as a pretty massive overpay. Archer was decent for Pittsburgh after the trade, but nothing special. He fell apart in 2019 and then had thoracic-outlet surgery. Glasnow has been a regular on the Injured List, but when he’s healthy he’s generally one of the best pitchers in baseball. Meadows had a pair of solid years in Tampa before coming to Detroit in a trade for Isaac Paredes. Baz has also been injured constantly, with just 46 MLB innings, but he’s still a top-100 prospect.

We could also look at trades of front-line starters with 1.5 or 2 years of team control remaining, like Zack Greinke to Milwaukee, Gerrit Cole to Houston, Luis Castillo to Seattle, and Dylan Cease to San Diego. But this post is long, and all of these deals tend to look the same.

The typical return for a pitcher like Tarik Skubal looks like this:

• Two top-100 prospects, generally in the 20-70 range. One might be a recently graduated big-leaguer.
• One or two depth pieces. This could include a current big-leaguer, a boom/bust lottery ticket, or a low-ceiling minor leaguer.

So, after all that, what would some real-world Tarik Skubal trades look like?

Tarik Skubal Trade Proposals

Trade One: Tarik Skubal to the Orioles for C/1B Samuel Basallo, OF Heston Kjerstad, RHP Jackson Baumeister, SS Leandro Arias

Analysis: Detroit Tigers fans are right to want elite prospects like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo in a Skubal trade. But history tells us they won’t get them. Basallo is close to that level, however, as a power-hitting catcher/first baseman. Picture Josue Briceno, except Basallo is one month older than Briceno and performing well in Double-A. Kjerstad is a Kerry Carpenter-esque power-hitting lefty corner outfielder who chases a bit more than is ideal. Baumeister was Baltimore’s 2rd-rounder last year. He has a strong frame and a good arm, but is having trouble throwing strikes in pro ball. Arias is a Low-A lottery ticket with the ability to play middle infield.

Trade Two: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers for C/1B Dalton Rushing, SS Alex Freeland, RHP Edgardo Henriquez, OF Dylan Campbell

Analysis:  The Dodgers have enviable pitching depth, but just about everyone in their rotation has been injured this year. A Skubal/Glasnow/Yamamoto trio would give them the advantage in most playoff series. This is probably not the sort of star-studded prospect return Tigers fans would want, but it offers interesting upside. Rushing is a viable backstop with the power and on-base skills to at least be the strong side of a catching platoon. Freeland is a switch-hitting shortstop having a breakout season. He shows power, speed, and more than enough arm for the left side of the infield. Henriquez is a physical specimen who shows remarkable control of a fastball that reaches 103 MPH and a slider that gets into the mid-90s. He looks like a Mason Miller style closer. Dylan Campbell is a well-rounded outfielder with some defensive versatility.

Trade Three: Tarik Skubal and RHP Freddy Pacheco to the Cardinals for RHP Tink Hence, OF Matt Koperniak, INF César Prieto, RHP Zack Showalter and C Leonardo Bernal

Analysis: (Rogelio) – St. Louis’s system is not very deep but if you are Detroit and you are trading Skubal, you want one of the top arms in the system in Tink Hence, who has 71 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched in Double-A Springfield or lefty Cooper Hjerpe, the Cardinals first round pick in 2022. But Hence is closer to major leagues than Hjerpe. One key stat that pops out about Hence is that his K per 9 is over 12 in 12 starts this season compared to his first 12 starts in Springfield, where it was at 8.78.

The left-hitting Koperniak, who is from the United Kingdom, his numbers against high velocity are intriguing. He can hit against lefties and righties at the same clip and has some pop in his bat. Prieto, who came over from Baltimore in the Jack Flaherty deal, would give Detroit a utility player who can play all over the diamond who puts the ball in play and can get on base. Showalter is a wild card and if not him, Bernal is a switch-hitting catcher with good plate discipline and would give Detroit some much needed catching depth.

The Cardinals need some bullpen help so why not give them an arm they are familiar with in Pacheco.

Conclusion

This is a long piece, and we could’ve made it twice as long. But hopefully you get the point. The Detroit Tigers could trade Tarik Skubal at this year’s deadline and get an interesting prospect package. But they’ll be losing the best player in every possible deal.

They are probably better off trying to build a proper offense and bullpen in free agency and making another run at the playoffs in 2025. And if it doesn’t work out next year, they can still trade him before 2026 and get a strong return.