Amidst all the recent discussions on whether the Detroit Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal, the MLB whiff leader (33%), Jack Flaherty, took the mound against the Jays on Friday. He pitched 5.2 innings, got 17 swings and misses, struck out 8 and allowed just a two-run home run by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In other words, he continues to be one of the best starters in the American League.
With his value continuing to increase, the attention now turns to if Detroit should trade the right-hander or keep him, as Detroit is just now two games under .500 and winners of 9 out of their last 11 games. Manager A.J. Hinch has said he would like to add not subtract at the trade deadline, and there seems to be no rush on calling up right-hander Jackson Jobe.
There are many ways to look at the next two weeks. But if Detroit decides to trade Flaherty, we thought we’d look at three realistic options for them.
Trade #1: Jack Flaherty to the Phillies
Phillies trade: LHP Samuel Aldegheri, 1B Keaton Anthony
The Tigers have traded with the Phillies twice under the Scott Harris regime. Dave Dombrowski has stated he would like to add a starter without trading top prospects in their system, so the idea of them coming together on another trade is not too crazy.
Let’s start with Aldegheri, who is having a breakout season. The left-hander, ranked number 23 in the Phillies MLB Pipeline Top 30, and number six on Baseball America’s updated mid-season list, struck out 95 in 68 innings of work at High-A Jersey Shore. He punched out eight more in five innings in his Double-A debut with Reading on July 12th. His 12.57 K per 9 led the South Atlantic League.
Aldegheri’s fastball has seen an increase in velocity this year, sitting in the 92-93MPH range and touching as high as 96. He also throws a slider, a curve, and a changeup, with the slider the best of his secondary offerings. While Aldegheri does throw a lot of strikes, his walk rates have historically been slightly higher than ideal. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter or a possible swing man out of the bullpen.
Right-handed hitting Keaton Anthony was an undrafted free agent from the University of Iowa, was recently promoted to High-A after hitting .322/.446/.470 in Clearwater. He does not hit for a lot of power, but so far he has shown a good eye at the plate and barrels up the ball well. He’s a lottery ticket here as strong contact hitter who fits the Tigers’ motto of controlling the strike zone.
Keaton Anthony starts his Jersey Shore career with an RBI single in his first at-bat to give the BlueClaws a 1-0 lead … You can watch the game for free on https://t.co/MRahSiUcSR pic.twitter.com/SW0NsH2DJM
— Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) June 26, 2024
Trade #2: Jack Flaherty to the Red Sox
Red Sox trade: 1B/3B Blaze Jordan, RHP Jedixson Paez.
Boston has some serious farm system depth. Blaze Jordan has split time at first and third for Double-A Portland this year. When Boston drafted him out of high school in the 3rd round of the 2020 MLB Draft, he was known for hitting for high exit velocity and having big raw power.
As SoxProspects.com noted in their scouting report, he came into the 2024 season 20 pounds lighter, which allows him to play 3rd in a part-time role more, but they projected him to play first base long term. Jordan could be an alternative if the organization is not sure what to do with Spencer Torkelson. The call-up of Bligh Madris from Toledo instead of Torkelson on Sunday seems to be an indication of how the organization currently feels about him. It may be a while before Torkelson comes back to Detroit.
Paez’s profile continues to grow this season. He was recently called up to High-A Greenville and while he projects as a swing man or back-end starter, he has good command of the strike zone, with a walk rate under 5% in over 50 innings of work. He features a fastball, sweeper, and a changeup, striking out 80 in 62 innings of work. Boston and Detroit just made a small trade a few weeks ago, swapping Trey Wingenter for CJ Weins. So Detroit may have some familiarity with Boston’s system already.
11) Jedixson Paez (BOS #NA)
Paez has been lauded for his excellent command, but he has come into his own this season as a big whiff inducing pitcher. He wields a sinker, a huge sweeper, and a changeup with a lot of arm-side break, and simply throws strikes pic.twitter.com/sXz6YYF9my
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 12, 2024
Trade #3: Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers
Dodgers trade: C/1B Dalton Rushing, RHP Chris Campos
In this scenario Flaherty would head home to his native Los Angeles and the Dodgers would add to a rotation that is getting Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back this week.
While the Tigers like Eliezer Alfonzo in Erie, the system’s catching depth after Dillon Dingler in Toledo is a thin. The future, however, is in decent shape with Josue Briceno and Enrique Jimenez. Will Smith is entrenched as the Dodgers catcher of the future. Rushing could also play first base or DH. But Los Angeles has some guys named Freeman and Ohtani at those positions through 2027.
So there isn’t much room for Rushing on the Dodgers. And he does a lot of things the Tigers like. He has a good eye at the plate, walking at 11% clip at Double-A Tulsa, and he has some pop, with a career .229 ISO in the minors. Rushing is also a left-handed batter, so if he did come to Detroit he’d be an ideal platoon partner with Jake Rogers or Dillon Dingler.
I saw Campos pitch at Great Lakes, and he can get up to 97 MPH with his fastball. He also throws a curve, change, and a slider. The former shortstop seems to be making a smooth transition to pitching, as 2023 was his first full season on the mound. He is already at Double-A and, similar to other parts of the deals mentioned, a good lottery ticket type of player who, with some polish from the Tigers pitching development machine, could be strong contributor.
For some good news on the timeline right now…..#Dodgers RHP prospect Chris Campos had a great Double-A debut tonight:
6.0 IP
4 H
0 R
0 BB
5 K
76 P / 56 SThe 23-year-old lived in the zone in his first Double-A action. He posted a 3.15 ERA in High-A. pic.twitter.com/rKYcApy7yF
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) June 28, 2024
DALTON RUSHING SLAM!💥
His seventh home run of the year is of the grand variety#ProCards
pic.twitter.com/Ell61VpZ5J— Louisville Baseball Alumni Report (@Lvillebsblalum) May 28, 2024
Or…the Detroit Tigers do not trade Flaherty
With the recent injuries to Reese Olson in Detroit and Matt Manning down in Toledo, the Tigers pitching depth is stretched thin. Detroit, with another series win over Toronto, are 8-2 over their last 10 games and five games out of the wild card as they head to Cleveland.
If the Tigers did keep him, they would almost certainly give him a qualifying offer. And Flaherty would almost certainly turn it down. Then, depending on what kind of free agent deal he signs, the Tigers would get a compensation pick in 30-35 range or the 65-75 range in the 2025 MLB Draft.
Regardless, there are several options out there that could net Detroit an impact player that could add something in 2025.
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Chris Brown
Great article Rog!
I know there has been some outcry from certain Tigers fans that they should sign Flaherty to a multi year contract. Nobody seems to know what his current market value is if/when he becomes a free agent in the offseason. I was wondering what your guys ideas of a contract (that he would actually sign) would be.
That’s a great question Bryan, thanks! In cases like this I always try to find a similar player/contract. It’s kind of tough in Flaherty’s case because he had success early, then was injury plagued and poor to middling for four seasons, before looking great again at age 28.
The most similar player I can think of is probably Carlos Rodon, who signed a bit of a prove-it deal with the Giants, getting two years and $44 million, with an opt out. Then he proved it and got 6 years and $162 million.
I think, given Flaherty’s injury history, it would be hard for any team (including the Tigers) to commit to more than about three years and $60 million.
Thank for answering Chris! I wouldn’t be upset with that 3 years – 60 million deal at all!
I think all these ideas are well thought out but the only one that is even cose is the Dodgers for the catcher. Flaherty has shown time and again this year that it should take at least 1 high caliber player(hitter) to take his place and a throw in pitcher to fill his place in the organizatio.