On Monday, Spencer Torkelson took home the Toledo Mud Hens Player of the Week award. Torkelson went 7-for-23 (.304/.414/.696) with a pair of home runs in the final two games of the series against Indianapolis. Over his past two weeks, (12 games) he has hit .326/.441/.739 with a wRC+ of 184 with a 18.6% walk rate, while striking out at 28.8% clip. Outside of Dillon Dingler, Torkelson has been one of the more productive hitters for the Mud Hens over the last few weeks.
However, how does that translate from a 4-A player to what we saw last season. What changes have been in progress? There were rumors about him developing a toe tap, but after going back over video, nothing seem too different. It wasn’t until I looked at his swing path that I noticed some changes.
🧵A few observations. Here’s Spencer Torkelson’s swing from today and back on May 26. His timing through the strikezone is different.
It appears that his hand is dropping more in the zone/ shoulder is staying closed longer. The bat angle is far more even, not at an angle 1/2 pic.twitter.com/Frd8P3TXHP
— Rogelio Castillo (@rogcastbaseball) August 4, 2024
And here it is, in real time.
I dont have your title, but here is the video, unedited.
Look at the top of the bat and the bat angle when he finishes loading. I may be a bit off on the timing, but the slo-mo is at 50%. pic.twitter.com/um0NhAZz6B
— Rogelio Castillo (@rogcastbaseball) August 4, 2024
You can see the bat angle is different, and the shoulder appears to be staying closed longer, allowing his timing to be faster in the zone. The shoulder feedback came from Geoff Pontes over at Baseball America and after looking at the video a few times, the angle looks similar to his swing path last year.
Translation: The change is there but…
The question becomes, can he hit velocity? One of the biggest issues Torkelson has been experiencing is hitting against velocity. Last season, Torkelson hit .268 with a .507 slugging percentage and an 18% whiff rate on pitches thrown 94 MPH or harder. This year it was .179 with a .231 slug and a 16.5% whiff rate, part of the reason he was demoted.
His average exit velocity on such pitches last year was 95.9 MPH, with a launch angle of 14 degrees. This season in Detroit, it was 89.4 MPH and 19 degrees. So far, here are the numbers since June 1st against pitches 94 and above: His whiff rate sits at 24.7%, with an average exit velocity at 94.7 MPH and hard hit rate around 58%.
It would be nice to see more extra-base power among these numbers (.105 ISO), but whatever he is doing seems to be working.
How does that translate to the big league level?
While the numbers are getting better, should there be a level of dominance at Toledo? It’s rather unclear. Could he hit mistake pitches on the big league based on what he is doing currently? There is evidence to suggest that. However, if there is one stat that my colleague Chris Brown noticed, and it is rather glaring, is how he has faired against offspeed pitches. Since 2022, Torkelson has just three career home runs, all of which, came in 2023. His run value against changeups is a minus -4, same as his fastball.
To conclude our deep dive into Spencer Torkelson’s journey, it’s clear that while the changes to his swing during his time in Toledo have shown some promise, the data suggests a more cautious approach. Despite some positive indicators, the overall picture remains murky. Perhaps, waiting until 2025 for a more substantial impact from Torkelson would be the most prudent choice for Detroit. The potential is there, but patience may be the key to unlocking his full capabilities and ensuring he can consistently contribute to the Tigers’ lineup in the long run.
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