The Secret to Ty Madden’s Recent Success

Ty Madden is set to make his MLB debut later today. Rogelio covered his journey to this point, and delved a bit into his pitch mix.

But, if you’re anything like us, you were probably a bit shocked Ty Madden got the call. He’s had a really tough go of it in Triple-A this year, and that started basically as soon as he debuted with the Mud Hens.

Madden owns an eye-popping 7.97 ERA in 79 Triple-A innings this year. He has maintained a strong 28% strikeout rate this season. But his walk rated spiked to 11%, and he’s giving up home runs (1.94 HR/9) and hits (.304 opponent avg.) at the highest rate of his career, by far.

With numbers that rough, it can be hard to see when real progress has been made. Particularly if bad pitching has been partially replaced by bad luck. But our data wizard Jerry was the first to point out some interesting progress in August:

This is really interesting.

His FIP (2.68) has been half his ERA (5.63) last four games. 35.9% K% and 4.9% BB% in that same time.

What’s super interesting — an incredibly low 58.9% LOB. He could come up and be really good. https://t.co/Zl4LiwNADd

— JerryMackinem (@OPSenheimer) August 25, 2024

Those numbers are pretty strong. It’s just four Triple-A starts, of course, but that K-BB% rate (31%) would be the best by any starter in the big leagues. It’s more in line with the best relievers in baseball.

And we don’t think it was just a string of good outings. We think Ty Madden made a real change to the way he pitches.

Ty Madden Release Points

Ty Madden’s newfound success seems to correlate directly to a change in his release point. Actually, there are two changes, though the first one didn’t have such immediate and drastic results. But, with the benefits of hindsight and Triple-A data, we can effectively split Ty Madden’s Triple-A season into three parts.

Ty Madden Part 1: May 1st – June 23rd

This segment covers Madden’s first nine starts with the Mud Hens. In this span he went 0-3, with a 10.16 ERA over 31 innings pitched. He allowed 44 hits, 8 home runs, and 25 walks, while striking out 37. Here’s what his released point looked like in that span:

Those are pretty dots, but here are some explanatory numbers. Ty Madden’s average vertical release point was 6.05 feet, and his average horizontal release point was -1.11 feet (1.11 feet to the right of the center of the pitching rubber).

And here’s a look as some pitch-level performance data against Madden during this first span:

It sure looks like Madden was running into some tough luck, particularly with his fastball and changeup. But results are results, and Madden’s elevated walk totals meant that bad luck was incredibly damaging. He definitely needed to change something. And it looks like he did.

Ty Madden Part 2: June 24th – August 1st

This segment covers Madden’s next five starts with the Mud Hens. In this span he went 2-1, with a 7.50 ERA over 24 innings pitched. He allowed 28 hits, 6 home runs, and 10 walks, while striking out 28. Those aren’t great numbers by any means, but there appeared to be some small progress. Here’s what his release point looked like in that span:

That doesn’t look terribly different than in his first segment of the season, but the numbers say there was a change. His average vertical release point went from 6.05 feet to 5.78 feet, and his horizontal release point went from -1.11 feet to -1.35 feet. Those numbers seem small, but they represent a release point change of more than three inches. Basically, Ty Madden lowered his arm slot a quarter of a foot.

Here’s Madden’s pitch-level performance data in that second span:

Madden started using his slider more frequently and his fastball less often. That makes sense, considering the way batters treated his heater in that first span. The fastball still wasn’t great, but it wasn’t getting hit quite as hard. And his slider saw a 7% jump in whiff rate from this new arm slot, though hitters also started doing more damage when they made contact. Madden also saw a substantial jump in his changeup whiff rate, though the samples here are small enough that one or two whiffs can make a big difference.

So, we see some progress, but a 7.50 ERA still isn’t going to cut it. Ty Madden needed to try something else.

Ty Madden Part 3: August 2nd – August 20th

This segment covers Madden’s four most recent starts, about which Jerry tweeted. In this span he went 1-1, with a 5.63 ERA over 24 innings pitched. He allowed 28 hits, 3 home runs, and 5 walks, while striking out 37. Again, an unsightly ERA, but as Jerry pointed out, his 2.68 FIP was excellent. Here’s what his release point looked like in that span:

Thanks, dots, but we’ll take it from here. Madden’s vertical release point stayed exactly the same as the last span — 5.78 feet. But his horizontal release point jumped from -1.35 to -2.23, a difference of 10.5 inches.

Ty Madden didn’t suddenly become a side-armer. That sort of thing would have been noticed. So what caused such a drastic change?

He moved on the mound.

(Thanks to Rogelio for making that video)

Instead of standing on the first-base side of the rubber, Ty Madden moved slightly past the middle of the mound, while maintaining his lowered arm slot. It’s such a simple change, but it seems to have made a huge difference. Here are the pitch-level results since that move:

Voila! Ty Madden’s fastball saw a 7% jump in whiff rate, and hitters stopped mashing it. His curveball and cutter whiff rates jumped by 12-13%, and his slider whiff rate jumped 15%. Batters didn’t miss his changeup quite as much, but a 48% whiff rate will still do.

Does this mean Ty Madden is ready to dominate MLB hitters? Of course not. These changes are great, but they’ve come against Triple-A hitters. And there’s still a troubling amount of damage being done to his slider, when hitters actually make contact. But it appears Ty Madden has fixed his fastball, at least temporarily.

And that’s how a pitcher with a 7.97 ERA in Triple-A gets a chance in the big leagues. Ty Madden has made real changes to the way he pitches, and the success is there, if you look inside the numbers. It’s hard not to be impressed with Madden’s ability to handle failure, persevere, and adjust until he finds success.

He now faces the toughest challenge of his life. But he has certainly earned this chance.