Detroit Tigers Trade Ideas: Arenado and Others

Let’s Make Some Fake Detroit Tigers Trades

Detroit Tigers fans have been waiting patiently through an offseason that has thus far been simmering on low heat. But, with MLB’s annual Winter Meetings set to begin next Monday in Dallas, things may soon come to a boil.

In his postseason press conference Tigers President Scott Harris suggested the team needs to add a right-handed bat and more pitching. So far most of the offseason talk has been about addressing these needs via free agency, with Tigers fans pining for Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, Pete Alonso, and Christian Walker, among others. Our contributor Jayden Hewitt also suggested ten more free agent possibilities.

But maybe trades make more sense for the Tigers. Detroit has built a strong farm system, and perhaps trading from that depth would allow them to acquire players with more upside and/or less financial risk. So let’s take a look at a few potential trade targets.

Tigers Trade Target – Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado

Overview: Nolan Arenado’s name has been bandied about all offseason. And the chatter increased after Jon Morosi tweeted about the Detroit Tigers being a potential fit. Arenado is certainly famous, and on the surface he’s a good fit. But over the past two years his wRC+ is just 104, exactly the same as Matt Vierling’s. His power production is down sharply, and his Statcast sliders are alarming. Arenado is still a strong defender, by just about any measure.

Contract Details: Arenado’s contract is a bit complex, with Colorado paying a portion of his salary through 2027, and deferred money heading his way through 2041. The quick-and-dirty math has the Tigers paying Arenado a total of $52 million over the next three seasons.

Prospect Cost: Probably not much. Arenado was still worth 2-3 WAR last year, but he’s clearly on the downside of his career. There’s unlikely to be much surplus value here, and the Tigers are doing the Cardinals a mild favor. We suspect Arenado could be acquired for a package of lower-ranked prospects. Perhaps something like 2B Max Anderson, RHP Tanner Kohlhepp, and LHP Jake Miller.

Tigers Trade Target – Diamondbacks 3B Eugenio Suarez

Overview: The former Tigers infielder is coming off a strong year in which he hit .256 with 30 home runs. His plate discipline isn’t ideal, but he has been a consistent source of power, with 114 home runs over the past four seasons. Suarez turns 34 in July, and there may be some mild concern over his Janus-faced year. He was among the worst qualified hitters in baseball through June 30th, with a wRC+ of just 66. But from July 1st until the end of the season he was the 5th best player in baseball according to FanGraphs WAR.

Contract Details: Nothing too complex here. Suarez is due $15 million in 2025, and then he’s a free agent.

Prospect Cost: Suarez probably wouldn’t be too expensive, but he’d likely cost more than Arenado. He has averaged 3-4 WAR over the past three seasons, so it’s possible he could produce $15 million in excess value in 2025. In theory that’s about the cost of a prospect at the back end of a top-100 list. But the Tigers could possibly get it done with an MLB-ready pitcher like Ty Madden and a promising young backstop like Enrique Jimenez.

Tigers Trade Target – Marlins 3B/1B Jake Burger and RHP Edward Cabrera

Overview: This is a modified version of a deal we proposed at the 2024 trade deadline. Jake Burger is a power-hitting corner infielder with excellent batted-ball data, but concerning plate discipline and defensive metrics. Edward Cabrera has an impressive arm with enticing pure stuff, but he struggles to throw strikes, his career numbers are poor, and he’s had some shoulder troubles.

Contract Details: Both Burger and Cabrera are under team control through the 2028 season. Burger isn’t arbitration eligible until 2026, and thus due the MLB minimum in 2025, while Cabrera qualified for Super Two status and is expected to earn $2-2.5 million this year.

Prospect Cost: This is something of a high-risk, high-reward proposal. The Tigers would be getting two players who would theoretically become part of their core for the next four seasons. But Burger’s value is entirely dependent upon him continuing to hit for power, and Cabrera’s control issues might relegate him to the bullpen. So the Detroit Tigers would likely have to offer up a prospect package with a similar risk/reward profile. Our suggestion is 2B/3B Jace Jung, RHP Troy Melton, and OF Roberto Campos.

Prospect For Prospect Tigers Trade Ideas

Let’s have some fun now. Deals like this don’t happen very often, but the Tigers are in a position to make one. They had 11 rookies debut last year, and they still have one of the top farm systems in baseball. There’s a chance to trade from their strengths to address their weaknesses.

Tigers Trade Target – Blue Jays 3B/2B Orelvis Martinez

Overview: Orelvis Martinez’ path to the big leagues has been a bit of a roller coaster. He made some top-100 lists very early in his career after showcasing prodigious power. In 2021 he hit 28 home runs between Low-A and High-A at just 19 years old. Then he launched 30 bombs in Double-A the following year, but he fell off most lists because he batted just .203 while striking out nearly 29% of the time. But his contact and plate discipline both took promising leaps in 2023, and that carried over into last year, when he hit .263 with 17 home runs in 74 Triple-A games.

Martinez went 1-for-3 in his MLB debut last June. Then he tested positive for PEDs and took an 80-game suspension. That’s certainly concerning, and there’s no guarantee he can stick at 3rd base. He has decent hands and a strong arm, but he’s not particularly agile, and the Blue Jays had him playing more second base in 2024. Still, the Tigers could certainly use a right-handed bat with this kind of power, and Martinez is no worse on defense than Jace Jung.

Prospect Cost: 2B/3B Hao-Yu Lee, LHP Brant Hurter

TMLR is higher on Hao-Yu Lee than national outlets, but we acknowledge he probably doesn’t have the upside of Martinez. Still, with his well-rounded game, we think Lee is a safer bet to be an average big-leaguer. Brant Hurter isn’t technically a prospect anymore, and he doesn’t own a particularly sexy profile, but Toronto needs pitching help, and Hurter has shown he can get outs at the MLB level.

Tigers Trade Target – Cubs IF Matt Shaw

Overview: Matt Shaw is a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, currently rated 22nd by MLB Pipeline and 43rd by Baseball America. He was Chicago’s first-round pick in 2023, taken 13th overall out of the University of Maryland, and he had a spectacular pro debut after the draft. Shaw started out slowly in 2024, but by the end of the season he had posted an .867 OPS with 21 home runs, 31 steals, and an 11.8% walk rate while climbing to Triple-A. He was also USA’s best hitter at the Premier12 tournament last month. His defense isn’t a finished product, but he has the tools to be an average third baseman.

Prospect Cost: RHP Keider Montero, RHP Jaden Hamm

The Cubs are in strange situation. They have one better farm systems in all of baseball, and it’s deep on infielders. But, despite winning just 83 games last year, they also have entrenched big leaguers at nearly every position. They don’t have a particularly deep stable of pitching prospects, however.

Montero’s surface stats last year weren’t terribly strong, and stuff models don’t love him. But there’s a lot to work with there, and the Tigers trusted him as one of their two traditional starters down the stretch in 2024. Hamm was Detroit’s breakout prospect last year, landing on the back end of some top-100 prospect lists. He has an enticing north-south pitch profile, with feel for a slider and changeup. Both he and Montero have mid-rotation upside, with possible high-leverage relief roles as fallback options.

Tigers Trade Target – Orioles 3B/1B Coby Mayo

Overview: The Orioles saved money by taking Heston Kjerstad 2nd overall in the 2020 draft, and they passed those savings on to Coby Mayo in the 4th round. He had a solid pro debut in 2021, splitting time between rookie ball and Low-A. The Orioles pushed him aggressively in 2022, and he held his own, posting a .782 OPS while seeing 34 games at Double-A Bowie.Then he broke out in a big way in 2023, hitting .290 while blasting 29 home runs and walking at 15% clip. His walked rate dipped last year, but he still hit for average and power (.279, 22 HR in 89G).

Mayo now ranks as the 8th best prospect in all of baseball to both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. He has seen some MLB time, but it was pretty ugly. Mayo went just 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts, and he’s a big kid who may not stick at third base. Still, he has more then enough arm for the position, and his right-handed power potential is exactly what the Tigers need.

Prospect Cost: RHP Jackson Jobe

Do we want the Tigers to trade Jackson Jobe? We do not. But you gotta spend money to make money. Jobe is the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. And he’s ranked slightly higher than Mayo on most top-100 lists. But, like Mayo, he’s not without his warts. Pitchers are generally riskier than position players, and Jobe has dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons. And despite his electric stuff, he has yet to demonstrate the ability to consistently gets swings-and-misses from advanced hitters.

Both of these prospects offer tremendous upside while also filling immediate needs for their MLB clubs. The Orioles have enough young infielders to survive without Mayo, but they could use more young pitching. And while the Tigers would love to add Jobe to their 2025 rotation, they have solid pitching depth and a huge need for right-handed power.