The Best Changeups in the Detroit Tigers System
Changeups are the undercover agents of the pitching world. They boast more aliases than any other pitch (Airbender, circle change, forkball, fosh, kick change, palmball, screwball, splitter, straight change, and vulcan change, to name a few), and by the time hitters realize what’s coming, it’s too late.
Each pitch is slightly different, but all are tasked with the same job: Look like a fastball, arrive later, and befuddle opposite-side hitters. Tarik Skubal’s dastardly seam-shifted cambio was one of the best pitches in all of baseball in 2024. And Detroit Tigers fans have more outstanding changeups to look forward to in the future.
Best Detroit Tigers Changeup
1 – Lael Lockhart Jr.
Lael Lockhart’s splitter is one of the better development stories in the entire Tigers system. He joined Detroit’s system at the end of May 2023, and we interviewed him after a start in Erie about two months later. At that point he threw mostly fastballs, sliders, and curves. He had just begun to develop a splitter, and he described it as “a hit or miss pitch right now.”
Flash to 2024, and the splitter became mostly a miss pitch. And we mean that in the best way possible. Lockhart drew a ridiculous 55% whiff rate on his split last year, with Triple-A batters hitting just .155 against the pitch. It comes to the plate around 78-80 MPH, and Lockhart absolutely kills the spin on it, with an average of just 824 RPMs. That rivals some of the best splitters in the big leagues from 2024.
2 – Jackson Jobe
Jackson Jobe topped our fastball list, and our breaking ball list. And here he is again, near the top of the changeup list. In our opinion his change is actually his best pitch. He’s comfortable throwing it to lefties and righties, and he will happily use it multiple times in a row. The pitch sits in the 84-88 mph range, and he commands it very well. He’s also happy to throw it to any location in the zone, as evidenced by his first MLB strikeout.
First Major League strikeout for Jackson Jobe! #RepDetroit @jacksonwjobe pic.twitter.com/svYdoYkL9k
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 28, 2024
3 – Thomas Bruss
Thomas Bruss throws a true splitter that plays very well with his upper-90s fastball. His split drew an absurd 60% whiff rate in Low-A last year, and batters hit just .184 against it. The pitch sits in the 88-90 MPH range and it falls off the table at the plate. He would be higher on the list, but he was 25 in Low-A and mostly feasting on young, unprepared hitters. We’re eager to see how the pitch plays against more advanced batters.
Thomas Bruss struck out the side in a dominant 9th inning for Lakeland to earn his first professional save. pic.twitter.com/noROFUnLIo
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) May 5, 2024
4 – Ty Madden
Ty Madden’s path to the big leagues was pretty bumpy. Left-handed batters posted an .871 OPS against him in 2023, and posted a 7.97 ERA in Triple-A in 2024. But his ugly numbers with the Mud Hens belied the positive development happening behind the scenes. We’ve written about that before, but now we want to give special consideration to his split-change.
It’s a pitch he didn’t really have in 2023, but it was one of his best offerings in 2024. He had a 45% whiff rate with the splitter in Toledo on just 10% usage. And then in the bigs he upped the usage to 15%, but the whiff rate remained a very strong 44%. Madden now appears to own a legitimate out pitch against lefties, and he was pretty comfortable using it against right-handed hitters, too.
Today might be the best Ty Madden’s splitter has looked since his call-up, with five swings and misses and three called strikes, including this strikeout of Brent Rooker after a Lawrence Butler single in fifth. pic.twitter.com/zg6OlPezfz
— Jason Beck (@beckjason) September 8, 2024
5 – Jake Miller
Jake Miller’s circle-change doesn’t necessarily jump out visually, but it’s a strong complementary pitch when hitters gear up for his fastball or slider. He throws it in the 85-87 MPH range, and it drew whiffs at a 55% rate in Low-A. He lowered his usage of the pitch at higher levels as he moved on the mound and focused a bit more on his sweeper. But his changeup should still be a solid offering for him in the future.
Honorable Mentions
Ronny Chalas, Duque Hebbert, Carlos Lequerica, Joe Miller, Cole Patten
Chalas ran a 35% whiff rate on his change, and it was one of the most visually impressive changeups we saw last year. Hebbert famously used his changeup to strikeout Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and Rafael Devers in the World Baseball Classic. Low-A hitters learned to look for it though, and his fastball was only 4-5 MPH harder, so he drew just a 28% whiff rate. Lequerica gets a ton of armside movement on his changeup, which helped the pitch to a 45% whiff rate in Lakeland last year.
Joe Miller has the traditional lefty changeup that kills hitters in Low-A (.063 avg, 50% whiff rate). But High-A hitters learned to lay off it and his overall strikeout rate plummeted. Similarly, Cole Patten’s change just befuddled low-A hitters, to the tune of a 50% whiff rate. He didn’t get promoted to High A though, and he’s already 25.
Future Projection
Rayner Castillo, Donye Evans, Gabriel Reyes, Joseph Montalvo
All four of these players have promising changeups they don’t use very often. Castillo’s change drew a whiff rate of 35% in Low-A, but on just 8% usage. It was a bit hard, sitting 90 MPH, but he threw a slower, more promising version in the Arizona Fall League. Evans is primarily a sinker/slider pitcher, but his changeup drew a 50% whiff rate in Low-A last year on 12% usage.
Gabriel Reyes dominated hitters with his slider, getting whiffs at a 47% clip and holding batters to just a .099 average against. Hitters did do damage against his change, but he drew a 40% whiff rate on just under 10% usage. Montalvo’s changeup looks good, and it gets good results. He just needs to throw it a bit more often.
Emily Waldon