Alex Bregman and the Future

Projecting Alex Bregman With the Detroit Tigers

There’s nothing scarier than the unknown. The unknown is why most people don’t linger in front of creepy houses, or venture into dark caves. And it’s why MLB front offices balk at signing long-term deals with players over 30.

Many Detroit Tigers fans want the team to sign Alex Bregman to be their third baseman of the future. Bregman is a terrific player, at a position of need. He is a two-time All-Star, he’s a Gold Glover, a Silver Slugger, and a winner. But he turns 31 in March, and he has seen his offense decline in each of the past two seasons. Who knows how well he will produce in the future?

We can’t take away those unknowns with Alex Bregman. But we can make some educated guesses. We aren’t statisticians, and there are good projection systems out there. But sometimes it’s just fun to dig in and do some number crunching on your own. So we did.

Alex Bregman Comp Methodology

Alex Bregman has played for parts of nine seasons, from the age of 22 to 30. In that time he has batted .272/.366/.483, with 191 home runs, 42 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 132 in 1,111 games. Add in his defense at third base (and a little bit of shortstop) and you get 39.6 WAR.

To find similar players we started with a relatively simple search. We looked for every player since 1970 who produced an OPS+ between 125 and 140 over his first nine MLB seasons, in at least 900 games played. That gave us a list of about 90 names.

The next step was to remove the catchers, designated hitters, and most of the first basemen. We also cut behemoth outfielders like Adam Dunn, Richie Sexson, and Dave Winfield, whose builds weren’t terribly similar to Bregman’s.

Then we corrected for age, at least a bit. We removed everyone who began their MLB career at age 20 or younger, and everyone who began at age 24 or older. And then we broke a bunch of our own rules to add players who felt like Alex Bregman types.

The end result is a cohort of 45 players, henceforth referred to as Bregmen.

What we wanted to see was how well these 45 Bregmen performed over the rest of their careers. And we paid particular attention to how they did in the six seasons immediately following their first nine years in the big leagues.

Below you’ll see the average WAR of our Bregmen over their first nine seasons. Then their total WAR over their next six years (seasons 10-15). We’ve also included the median WAR numbers, and a group of players who, like Bregman, put up 4+ WAR in their 9th season. We finish with a 20-player sample designed to give us a WAR total closer to Bregman, and group of 15 players whose first nine MLB years corresponded to their age 22-30 seasons.

We’ve packed lots of similar numbers in there, so let’s clarify. Essentially, the average player like Alex Bregman produced 12.5 – 17.5 WAR over his next six seasons.

So far this offseason teams are paying about $7.6 million per projected win for free agent position players. With inflation, Alex Bregman is most likely to provide $120-150 million in value over the next six years. He turned down a six-year, $156-million deal from the Astros, and is reportedly seeking $200 million or more. That gap in perceived value might help explain why the Detroit Tigers haven’t signed him yet.

There are some intangible factors to consider here, too. Bregman is lauded for his leadership, which definitely provides value for a young team. And simply signing a big-name free agent would generate excitement from Tigers fans. How much extra value that offers is beyond our level of skill to determine.

Now lets look at some of our specific Bregmen to get a better idea of what to expect.

Potential Bregman Outcomes

The Bummer Bregmen (0-10 WAR)

This group includes players who completely fell off a cliff for one reason or another. A lot of the issues were injury related, as was the case with Nomar Garciaparra (1.7 WAR), Eric Chavez (3.6), and Troy Tulowitzki (6.7). But this group also includes players who retired young, like Kyle Seager (3.1), and contemporary Bregmen who have three more seasons to gain (or lose) WAR, like Anthony Rendon (1.6) and Christian Yelich (8.4).

For most of the 17 players in this group, their decline phase had already begun. Just four of them posted a 4-WAR campaign in their 9th season: Ray Lankford (5.8), Hanley Ramirez (5.2), Tim Salmon (8.4), and David Wright (7.9).

The Acceptable Bregmen (11-20 WAR) 

This group of 17 Bregmen includes 11 players who put up 4+ WAR in their 9th season. Some injury issues still creep in, but for the most part these players were still viable big leaguers at age 36. And we have some former Detroit Tigers clustered right in the middle here, including Magglio Ordonez (12.0), Bill Madlock (12.5), Fred Lynn (13.4), and Ian Kinsler (14.0).

Those would all be solid, if slightly disappointing outcomes for Alex Bregman. This group also includes potential trade target Nolan Arenado (12.6), who has three more years to add value. And at the top of the range we have Ron Cey (16.4) and Bobby Abreu (17.7).

The Jackpot Bregmen (21+ WAR)

This collection of Bregmen is outstanding. We have 11 names here, and 6 of them are in the Hall of Fame. Alex Bregman probably won’t be a Hall of Famer. But, through his first nine seasons, he’s in the company of a lot of all-time greats. Let’s just list them here:

Scott Rolen (22.0)
Tony Gwynn (22.1)
Robin Ventura (22.3)
Jim Edmonds (25.8)
Graig Nettles (26.0)
Lou Whitaker (27.4)
John Olerud (29.9)
Paul Molitor (30.2)
Larry Walker (30.7)
Adrian Beltre (33.3)

And so we come back to the unknown.

The odds are Alex Bregman ends up in one of the first two groups above. But, based on our scientifically iffy sample, there’s about a 25% chance he puts up 20+ WAR over the next six seasons. And a 13% chance he becomes a Hall of Famer!

Of course, if teams knew they were getting a Hall of Famer, and not the next Bobby Bonilla (2.9), then Alex Bregman would already be signed.