Five Things We Liked From the Past Week, February 14th

Welcome to “Five Things We Liked From the Past Week”, a weekly mishmash of… five  things we liked from the past week:

1. Start of spring training

That sound of cleats clacking, gloves smacking and bats cracking can only mean one thing: spring training has begun.

Detroit Tigers pitchers and catchers officially reported to spring training on Wednesday, and the position players who aren’t already there will be joining them by Monday. With all due respect to Christmas, this is the most wonderful time of the year.

Did you hear that so-and-so is in the best shape of his life, and has not only added a new pitch, but made a swing change? That’s how you know it’s spring training.

The Tigers have a lot of business to settle this spring for a team coming off of a playoff berth. You may have also heard that there’s an opening in the lineup, and two spots up for grabs in the rotation. There’s also competition for spots in the bullpen and on the bench, which should make for a spicy spring training.

2. Internal options

Please join me on the following player comparison journey:

And then:

And one more:

The first group of 3 is actually the same player, Matt Vierling, in 2022 (“Player A”), 2023 (B) and 2024 (C). Please note the trajectory of his wRC+.

The second group is actually 2024 Matt Vierling again (A), and 2024 Alex Bregman (B).

The third group is a set of 2025 ZiPS projections, for Bregman (A), Spencer Torkelson (B), Justyn-Henry Malloy (C), Jace Jung (D) and Hao-Yu Lee (E). Torkelson, Malloy and Jung represent the players who could benefit the most from Bregman signing with the Boston Red Sox, depending on how much DHing Kerry Carpenter does; and Hao-Yu Lee represents a wild card who could factor into the equation later in the year. (Our own Rogelio Castillo discussed this subject just 2 days ago.)

Is Bregman a better hitter than Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Jace Jung and Hao-Yu Lee? For 2025, most likely yes; but it may be closer than we think, at least based on the projections.

You may also note that defense was conveniently left out of these comparisons, and the impact Bregman has on that side of the ball can’t be denied. Fielding stats are hard to find and can be a little noisy. But from 2016-2019, FanGraphs listed an “Inside Edge” fielding metric, that attempted to quantify how many defensive plays a fielder made that were considered “Remote” (1-10% chance) and “Unlikely” (10-40% chance). From 2016-2019, Bregman played 3,420 innings at 3^rd base, and had 121 chances on plays that were considered “Remote” or “Unlikely”; which comes out to about .32 chances per game. In other words, once every 3 games Bregman had a chance at a play that was considered less than routine. This is my roundabout way of saying that as long as a 3^rd baseman can make the routine plays, they should be OK.

Based on the eye test, Matt Vierling is a decent 3^rd baseman who should make most of the routine plays; and his defensive stats over the past 2 seasons at 3^rd base back that up. The other side of this proverbial coin is what happens in right field, and I would also argue that the eye test says Kerry Carpenter is a decent right fielder, and just like with Matt Vierling, Carpenter’s defensive statistics, at least for 2024, back that up. (To be fair, one can argue how much right field the Tigers want Carpenter to play, for health reasons.)

The way that the roster is constructed, the Tigers’ bench as of now would likely consist of Dillon Dingler, Zack McKinstry, Andy Ibáñez and Javy Baez or Trey Sweeney. That most likely means that there is only room on the roster for one of Spencer Torkelson, Jace Jung and Justyn-Henry Malloy. With the need for a righty bat in the lineup, Tork or Malloy may get the first crack; and at least based on ZiPS projections, they may be able to come close to replicating Alex Bregman’s numbers on offense.

3. Toledo Mud Hens

While big league spring training has begun, minor league spring training is just around the corner. Which means now is as good a time as ever to take a look at projected minor league rosters for 2025.

Minor league rosters are in constant flux, even moreso than the big league roster, so projections are not only tough to make but also very fluid. But due to the depth of the big league squad, the Mud Hens should be worth keeping an eye on all season long.

As of today, the Mud Hens project to start the year with at least three of the following four players, all of whom got regular playing time with the Tigers last season: Spencer Torkelson, Jace Jung, Wenceel Pérez and Justyn-Henry Malloy. They also project to start with at least three or four of the following starting pitchers, barring injury: Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, Brant Hurter, Ty Madden and eventually Sawyer Gipson-Long.

The Hens’ ‘pen should be worth monitoring as well, as Tyler Owens, Chase Lee, Tyler Mattison, Wilmer Flores, RJ Petit and Eric Silva are all exciting relief prospects, and all should see time in Toledo. Brendan White and Freddy Pacheco could join them as they work their way back from injuries.

Top infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee and top pitching prospect Troy Melton will also likely be in Toledo, if not to start the year, soon thereafter; and ’24 holdovers Akil Baddoo, Andrew Navigato, Lael Lockhart, Justice Bigbie and Eddys Leonard will add additional depth to the Mud Hens, along with newcomer Jahmai Jones.

Overall, there’s a lot to like about the Tigers’ depth, which is good for Mud Hens fans.

4. Erie SeaWolves and West Michigan Whitecaps

Looking a little further down the minor league ladder, the Erie SeaWolves alone should be well worth a MILB.TV subscription in 2025, especially as the season goes on.

Depending on how Scott Harris, Ryan Garko and crew sort things out, four of the Tigers’ consensus top six prospects will start the season in either Erie or West Michigan. Most likely Thayron Liranzo will start in Erie, and Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark and Josue Briceño will start in West Michigan, but ideally head to Erie soon. All four have appeared on various top 100 prospect lists this offseason.

Back in late summer 2019, the SeaWolves’ rotation consisted of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Alex Faedo. But even that quartet wasn’t as highly regarded as the four top 100 prospects that Erie’s lineup could boast in 2025, as Tarik Skubal and Alex Faedo were not ranked prospects at the time.

Looking back to 1990, the Tigers have never had four top 100 prospects all on the same minor league team; at least according to Baseball America. And looking even further back than that, while the 1977 Montgomery Rebels had Alan Trammell and Sweet Lou Whitaker, as far as this researcher can tell, the ’25 Erie SeaWolves could eventually feature the most decorated group of prospects in one spot that the Tigers have ever had. What that ultimately means, we shall see; but it will be cool to watch.

Our 13^th ranked prospect, Roberto Campos, will likely start the year in Erie as well, while our 20^th ranked prospect, Brett Callahan, will likely start in West Michigan. On the pitching side, top prospect Jaden Hamm and Garrett Burhenn should front the Erie rotation to begin the season, and 2024 trade deadline addition Joseph Montalvo should join them in short order.

2024 standout Jake Miller will also be in the mix, as will exciting relief prospect Yosber Sanchez. Our 26^th ranked prospect Gabriel Reyes is likely to pitch in West Michigan, while our 14^th ranked prospect, Rayner Castillo, could join him after spending the fall in the Arizona Fall League.

5. Lakeland Flying Tigers

Not to be outdone, the Lakeland Flying Tigers should be an exciting group to follow during the ’25 season as well.

Positionally, 2024 1^st rounder Bryce Rainer will ideally spend at least part of the year with Lakeland, and our 12^th ranked prospect, Franyerber Montilla, should start the season in Lakeland also. Carson Rucker, who checks in at #19 on our top prospects list, will hope to establish himself after an injury-depleted ’24 season, while catcher Enrique Jimenez and OF Jackson Strong should add depth to the Lakeland lineup as well.

On the mound, the Tigers have a veritable slew of talented youngsters that could all see time with Lakeland this season, depending on how their development goes, including Owen Hall (#17 on our top prospects list), Ethan Schiefelbein (#18), Michael Massey (#31), Josh Randall (#32), Jatnk Diaz (#44), Paul Wilson, Blake Dickerson and Andrew Dunford.

It’s an exciting time to be a fan of the minor leagues, especially as a Tigers fan.

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