Kerry Carpenter Power Surge

In 2024, there were four guys who had a .587 or better slugging and 296+ PAs:

Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kerry Carpenter

Just four out of 290 hitters who had at least that many PAs also had a slugging that high. Both Judge and Ohtani have been here before, but this is the first time for Witt Jr. and Carpenter. Should we expect a repeat?

One and done

Prior to 2024, there have been 231 players who have reached the above criteria in all of MLB. Of those 231 players, 99 have done so in more than one season. The odds are more in favor of Kerry not repeating. Let’s see what that says for Kerry and his future.

A quick note about the data. I ended up removing one player from the sample size. I took out Josh Gibson because the reason he didn’t repeat was because the seasons he played in weren’t long enough for him to qualify.

For each remaining hitter who did not repeat, I gathered their career slugging, their slugging in the seasons before their big year, and their slugging in the seasons after it. First I’d like to present the average data based on a few different criteria:

The three datasets are with all the data, just the data where their SLG before was +/- .010 of Kerry’s, and the third was for those who did so in their age-26 season. No matter how we look at it, the collection of hitters saw a drop-off in their slugging to complete their careers. There is one player that I think matches up pretty well with Kerry from this group of guys.

Both were aged 26 when they had their big power output season, identical SLG prior to, similar BA and OBP. The more advanced metrics agree with Kerry Carpenter having the slight edge with a 123 wRC+ vs Maris’s 120 despite losing the wOBA battled (.346 vs. Maris’s .357). Roger Maris would go on to have an OPS of .841 and wRC+ of 133 in his following three seasons — which is almost exactly what Kerry has been for his career. The list of similarities can go on.

Multi-year run

There is still a good chance that he could repeat this at some point in his career. If we take a look at Kerry season-by-season so far, he managed to do this in his second year when he had the PA needed. Of the 99 guys who did it more than once, 17 of them also did so in their second season that qualified. Looking at the averages of that group, they did a slightly better than Kerry.

Before their first time reaching this they had 20 more points of batting average, 26 more points in OBP, and perhaps, more importantly, only 12 points more in slugging. This group of players also hit the .587 SLG mark an average of 4.9 times. Like before, one player matches up especially well.

Prince Fielder would go on to average 34 HRs a season and a slash line of .288/.395/.521 in his next 6 seasons and accumulating 22.2 fWAR. That might have continued on even longer if not for injuries derailing his career.

Prince started off three years younger than Kerry. Regardless, I don’t think anyone will complain about an OPS of .916 across three years.

Conclusion

Kerry had a fantastic season, even if it was shortened due to injuries. It’s not that hard to see him doing this again. Barrel% was 17.7%, 6.6% higher than his previous career high, his SweetSpot% and HardHit% also jumped 2.0%-2.5%, even if odds are more in line with it being the only time. Either way it seems he’s going to be a productive and fun player this season and beyond.

Follow me on “X” at @OPSenheimer

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