Welcome to “Five Things We Liked From Last Week”, a weekly list of… five things we liked from last week:
1. Roster projections
With less than a week left of spring training, it’s roster projection season for beat writers and fans alike. Evan Woodbery of Mlive.com, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic and Chris McCosky of the Detroit News have taken their swings lately, and while there’s some agreement between the four, the main questions center around the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation, the last 2 spots in the bullpen, and 2-3 spots offensively; especially with Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows officially ruled out for Opening Day.
Below is this fan’s roster prediction, which will surely be incorrect in a matter of days:
Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
Bullpen: Will Vest, Tyler Holton, Tommy Kahnle, Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, John Brebbia, Brenan Hanifee, Kenta Maeda
(The main question in this group is which two of the following four pitchers are in the starting rotation to begin the season: Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe, Kenta Maeda and Keider Montero. Montero feels like the odd man out for now, despite a strong spring performance. Jobe has battled some inconsistency in the early going, but the talent is undeniable; and the Tigers may opt to continue his development with Chris Fetter and company. Mize has been the top performer this spring and his stuff looks crisp, while Maeda has been good as well but is a more natural fit for the bullpen based on past experience.
Maeda should make the team either way, which seemingly leaves one bullpen spot up for grabs. Andrew Chafin will likely fill a spot soon, but A.J. Hinch and Scott Harris may believe he needs a little more work in Toledo first to get up to speed. Brenan Hanifee has been lights out this spring and deserves to be on the team as well.)
Catchers: Jake Rogers, Dillon Dingler
Infielders: Trey Sweeney, Javier Báez, Gleyber Torres, Colt Keith, Spencer Torkelson
Outfielders: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Pérez
Utility: Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibáñez, Justyn-Henry Malloy
(The main questions in this group appear to be who will get the lion’s (or Tiger’s) share of the starts at shortstop, third base and centerfield to start the season. The guesses here as of today would be Trey Sweeney, Zack McKinstry and Wenceel Pérez.
Javy Báez has looked mobile this spring and will be on the team, but Trey Sweeney has also held his own and impressed last season, especially defensively. That would leave Spencer Torkelson, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Ryan Kreidler and Jahmai Jones battling for two spots. Jones has made a very solid first impression, and has certainly put himself firmly in the Tigers’ plans; while Kreidler has continued to show off his defense chops at multiple positions. But Tork and Malloy have impressed as well and potentially offer a little more thump from the right side.)
2. Dillon Dingler
The catching position was a major strength for the Tigers in 2024. Detroit catchers ranked 7th in fWAR in the ’24 season, due largely to their work behind the plate; the Tigers led the league in catcher defense per Fangraphs.
Dillon Dingler made his major league debut on July 29, 2024, and made a strong first impression, going 1 for 3 with a walk and a double. Dingler had a bit of a tougher time at the plate the rest of the year, which for a catcher learning a whole new group of pitchers at the big league level, was to be expected. His defense on the other hand was as solid as advertised.
This spring, Double D has looked much more comfy at the plate. Last Friday night, he swung and missed at an Andrew Heaney curveball in the dirt, and on the very next pitch, sent an Andrew Heaney curveball close to 400 feet for a home run. On Monday afternoon, Dingler again swung and missed at a breaking ball in the dirt, and on the very next pitch, smacked a breaking ball to left field for a double.
Dingler has had a slow but steady rise through the Tigers system, and it has often taken him a year to adjust to each level. In 2021, Dillon was promoted to AA mid-season, and slashed .202/.264/.314 over 208 plate appearances. The next year in AA, his numbers improved to .238/.333/.419 while spending the entire year in Erie. Dingler was back in AA to start the ’23 season, and again improved, putting up a .253/.373/.462 slashline for a 131 wRC+. He got promoted to AAA late in the year, and again took a minute to adjust, posting a 56 wRC+ in just over 100 PAs. However, staying true to his previous promotions, in 2024 he was a monster in AAA, posting a 139 wRC+ in 300 plate appearances, while cutting his strikeout rate by 7+%.
Dingler has always been a strong defender. If he continues his history of making adjustments each year, he could be in for a big year in the D in 2025.
3. Spring breakout game
With this being the Tigers Minor League Report, our “Five Things” have been severely lacking in any type of minor league coverage. That changes today!
This past Sunday, the Tigers played in the (now) annual Spring Breakout game, a showcase for top prospects in each team’s system. Detroit’s opponent was the Atlanta Braves.
Fans of TMLR (and fellow lovers of prospect coverage) have surely been anticipating this game all spring. Thirteen of the top 20 prospects on our top prospect list appeared in the contest, and it was a delight.
On the mound, Jake Miller got the start for Detroit, pitching 2 innings of one run ball with two strikeouts. Miller had solid command of his deep arsenal as usual, and touched 96 with the heater while looking pretty impressive. Jaden Hamm got 2 innings of work as well, and to save time you can copy and paste the previous sentence about Miller for Hamm. Josh Randall, Micah Ashman, Joseph Montalvo, Troy Melton, and Tyler Owens all got one inning a piece. Montalvo and Melton looked especially strong, as Montalvo sat 93-95 with the heat while flashing solid secondary pitches, and Melton was up to 99 while breaking off some good lookin’ secondaries as well.
Not to be outdone, the Tigers’ position prospects showed out in the Spring Breakout game as well. In the field, both Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle got to show off their arm strength on back to back plays, giving Tigers fans a glimpse of their all-around games. At the plate, Clark, McGonigle, Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño each got a hit, while Hao-Yu Lee, Roberto Campos and Max Anderson joined them in the hit column as well.
The star of the show was one Bryce Rainer, the Tigers 1st round pick in the 2024 draft. It was the first chance Tigers fans had to see the youngster in action, and he did not disappoint. In his first AB, Rainer hit a grounder to third and almost beat the throw with better than expected speed down the line. In his second trip to the plate, Rainer backspun a deep drive to left that almost hit the wall, and almost decapitated the Braves’ left fielder. In his final plate appearance, Bryce sent a 114 mph laser over the shortstop’s head for a single. Overall, it was a great first impression for the young shortstop.
TMLR’s Chris Brown wrote a report with more in depth (and better) coverage of the game that can be found here.
4. Prospects we’re looking forward to seeing this season: Joseph Montalvo
Over the next few weeks, while not technically a “Last Week” item, we are going to highlight a few under-the-radar prospects we’re looking forward to seeing this season. First up is Joseph Montalvo.
The Tigers acquired Montalvo’s services from the Texas Rangers in the Andrew Chafin trade last summer, and Montalvo was able to make five starts for the Erie SeaWolves to close out the 2024 season.
While Montalvo’s numbers with the SeaWolves were more good than great, his overall numbers for the season were more impressive; especially his 27.2% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and his 1.04 HR/9 allowed, which led to a 3.00 ERA.
Here’s what our own Chris Brown wrote about Montalvo in the TMLR top prospect list breakdown:
Montalvo showcases almost every good trait you want from a pitcher. He is an extremely athletic mover on the mound, with a smooth, repeatable delivery. His fastball has good shape and spin, and his slider regularly shows as an above-average offering. His changeup also flashes as an above-average pitch, though he doesn’t throw it terribly often. The main thing holding him back right now is a lack of velocity… All the other ingredients are here, and if the Tigers can get him sitting closer to 93-95 MPH then they might have a mid-rotation pitching prospect on their hands.
Chris also mentioned that the Tigers didn’t do much tinkering with Montalvo upon arrival, so it will be very interesting to see what changes the Tigers’ pitching department have in store for the young righty. If all goes well, which it rarely does, the Tigers very well may have quite the pitching prospect on their hands. Check out Montalvo’s solid Spring Breakout performance here.
5. Prospects we’re looking forward to seeing this season: Troy Melton
Troy Melton was part of former Tigers’ GM Al Avila’s final draft in 2022, getting the call in the 4th round at pick 117. As with some other Avila leftovers, with further refinement Melton could prove to be quite a steal.
Melton didn’t see much action in 2022 after being drafted, but his 2023 season was a resounding success: 92 IP, 2.74 ERA (and 3.13 FIP), 24.9% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and just .49 HR/9 allowed.
While Melton’s 2024 season appeared to be somewhat of a step back, his strikeout rate increased to 27.7%, his walk rate held steady at 7%, and his xFIP of 3.14 not only far surpassed his season ERA of 5.10, but was also better than his 3.71 xFIP in ’23. The main difference between ’23 and ’24 for Melton was more fly balls left the yard.
Melton has gotten some love this offseason from prospect writers, not only from Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs (who ranked Melton 80th on his top 100 prospect list), but also from us here at TMLR, who ranked the big right-hander 9th on our top prospect list. Melton is a relative newbie to pitching, but his stuff is firm and formidable; this is what TMLR’s Chris Brown wrote about Melton in the TMLR top prospects list report:
Troy is open to any adjustments the Tigers suggest refining his pitch mix. He may start the season in Erie to log more innings, given the potential logjam of starters in Toledo—and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. With a fastball that can touch 98-99 mph and a slider that works as a solid chase pitch against righties, he has the tools to keep progressing.
If Melton can keep the home runs allowed in check and figure out his strange reverse-platoon splits, just like with Joseph Montalvo, the Tigers may have another strong pitching prospect in tow. You can see Melton’s Spring Breakout performance here if you need a boost heading into the weekend.
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Chris Brown