Ballpark Factor Series: How the Tigers may fare at the beginning of the season

Playing in a certain city, stadium, or at a certain time of the year has always been a factor in sports. Baseball happens to be one of those sports where it’s often talked about. “The wind got a hold of that one,” “the jet stream took that ball,” or one of the more popular thoughts, “the ball just travels better in the summer.”

While I’m not insinuating that baseball is affected the most, it does have a large impact on the sport in general, in outdoor stadiums, specifically. But what about ballparks, how do certain ballparks play? And what role does weather play in those ballparks?

I’m going to break down the first five ballparks for the Detroit Tigers. Thankfully, the weather in general is fairly easy to find, and we know a little bit about certain weather and how those conditions affect humans in general, even beyond sports. 

In this article, I’ll be looking at a variety of factors, including weather, ballpark factor, monthly statistics for certain teams and their home team performance. Ballpark factor is a statistic that shows how hitter friendly, or pitcher friendly a park is. My investigation into weather patterns on top of that may help explain why or why not teams can or cannot hit well there, the Tigers in specific, though. 

Why does weather and climate matter so much?

Well, baseballs will fly better with less moisture in the air weighing it down. Baseball operates differently than let’s say, golf; golfers may see their ball flight at its best on a hot, humid day, due to the ball’s hard cover, because the higher the humidity, the less dense the air becomes (good for ball flight).

Warmer temperatures, though, overall have less air density, while colder temperatures have more air density. 

But, baseballs, because of their thick, leather or hide covering, will absorb more moisture, making it more likely to see harder, and longer hit balls on a hot, dry day compared to a hot, humid day, despite the air density being lower.

Elevation plays a factor as well, the effects of humidity and temperature are lessened (a bit) when elevation rises. Air density becomes lower and lower the higher the elevation is, which is why Coors Field (5280 feet) plays the way it does. 

In basic terms: Low density – better ball flight.

High density – worse ball flight.

High humidity – worse baseball flight.

Low humidity – better baseball flight

Weird twist: baseballs don’t always abide by these rules, especially if the elevation is significant enough to help “offset” the humidity effects.

Long story short: cold, damp, humid days = BAD, BAD, BAD for baseball, and just bad for everything sports related, usually.

Warm, dry days = GOOD, GOOD, GOOD for baseball. Colorado is a perfect example, in the summer, it’s warm and dry, and also a mile high. Great American Ballpark (number one in home runs from 2022-2024)  in Cincinnati is one place that benefits the most from dimensions and unique wind patterns, rather than just weather (although their summer weather is fine, and definitely helps a bit, as does warmer temperatures in every outdoor park).  

We know how what happens to the ball affects hitters based upon what was said. But weather affects players in general too. Pitchers often struggle to grip the ball in colder weather, and especially in wet weather. And in turn, pitchers often find it harder to control the ball, and find the correct grip for any pitch. Anyone who has played fall or spring baseball in Michigan can usually relate (and the constant pain you’re in after not barreling up the ball!).

You may find that in warmer weather, just as things get easier for hitters, they get easier for pitchers too, although, if you’re able to pitch well in cold and/or wet conditions, you have an advantage over the hitters at any time. But, muscles perform better in warm weather as well, you’re often looser, and less likely to sustain an injury.

Disclaimer: all park factor data will be from the years 2022-2024, or three seasons worth of data.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Los Angeles, CA

The Tigers open up their season on Thursday, March 27 in L.A., a city known for its fantastic weather in Southern California’s Mediterranean climate, at Dodger Stadium. The stadium is located in Chavez Ravine, as many know it by.

The Dodgers, when it comes to park factor, find themselves in a logjam of a tie for 12th place in the MLB, seven teams, including them are tied for the spot, with a 100 park factor. A 100 park factor is very middle-of-the-pack, it indicates that through the overall calculation, there is no true advantage to either hitters, or pitchers.

The Tigers just simply did not hit very well in  2024, they were tied for 23rd in team OPS, 24th in home runs, 29th in OBP and 22nd in slugging percentage. The spring training trends in 2025 are better (not by a lot), but I won’t dig too far into spring training stats. 

But, spring or not, we can assume there will be a slight improvement offensively for this season’s Tiger team, but nothing significant with the addition of a solid hitter in Gleyber Torres. Although we saw a good spring from Spencer Torkelson. And we know the ability of  the best bats of the lineup in Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Colt Keith.

A positive to opening up the season at Dodger stadium is that since 2022, it ranks second in the MLB for home runs allowed per year, with 122 on average. It is important to note, though, the caliber of team the Dodgers have been in that span. 

And it’s worth mentioning that the Tigers led the MLB in triples during the 2024 season, with 47. But on the flip-side, Dodger stadium ranks 23rd in triples per year, less fortunately for a Tigers team who likes to be aggressive on taking extra bases.

The weather in Los Angeles is usually beautiful, temperatures can soar in the summer, but during the spring season, the temperatures are mild, in the 60s and 70s, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s and low winds. 

Los Angeles presents a good climate for baseball, and ideal weather conditions; it’s a rather dry climate, which is good for comfortability and usually good for ball flight when it comes to baseball. In March, when the Tigers open up there, it does get more humid, but not significantly, and it should not be a large factor. 

In 2024, Dodger Stadium, though, ranked 20th in variable extra distance, a stat that compiles multiple factors. Factors like average temperature throughout the season, elevation, benefits from having a roof, and environment (humidity and wind among other factors). 

Dodger Stadium’s -2.0 variable extra distance essentially is saying that unless conditions are ideal, the ball, on average, will likely not get any boosts from all of those factors. 

Lastly, Dodger stadium has some favorable dimensions the Tigers can use to their advantage, with no part of the fences reaching more than 400 feet, and 330 feet to each corner (both corners are also about four and a half feet high). Expect some of the Tigers hitters who like to pull home runs to take advantage of the shorter dimensions to both pull sides.

Now, there’s multiple hitters who tend to pull home runs for the Tigers, but this is a stadium in which Torkelson *may* be able to capitalize on continuing a hot spring training. I mean, hey, going from Florida, to the Bay Area and Los Angeles is a pretty solid start to the season for the Tigers from a weather standpoint, too.

Overall, opening the season against Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki isn’t exactly hitter friendly. But, I don’t expect the park to get in the way of well-hit baseballs, especially down in the corners. 

My series prediction: I think the Tigers will have a tough time, they are facing two established pitchers, and one, in Sasaki, who could very well be the best of the three at some point in the future.

The weather in Los Angeles should be favorable enough that if the Tigers put solid wood on the ball, it should still travel as expected in a warmer climate. As of right now, the ace, Tarik Skubal is the only known probable starter for Detroit, but the Tigers rotation plans to be good, once again, and they should make this series competitive. I predict that the Tigers will take one game, behind solid pitching against a very good lineup.

Disclaimer: This will be a series breaking down each of the first five stadiums the Tigers will play in (including Comerica Park), and how the weather and other factors affect the offense, and pitchers too. The other series will also contain monthly split data, but because this first series is in March, there isn’t a lot of past data available.

Park Factor data and Variable Extra Distance data is per Statcast.