Another stadium for the Detroit Tigers means another edition of my Ballpark Factor Series. So far, we’ve seen Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and Comerica Park in Detroit.
This time around, we’ll explore Target Field in Minneapolis, MN. Target Field is the home of the Minnesota Twins. There are some pretty surprising things I’ll be talking about in this article about the stadium’s “hit-ability.”
My predictions for Tigers’ hitters have so far not been great, and I will admit that between both series against the White Sox and Yankees, I did not think the offense would continue to the level it was before. But I am very happily wrong about that as well.
The Tigers square off for a three-game series starting tonight against the Twins at 8:10 p.m. and will finish the series on Sunday, April 13.
Before we fully dive into the ins and outs of Target field, I will refer back to my guide from the first article that can put some things into perspective.
“In basic terms: Low density – better ball flight.
High density – worse ball flight.
High humidity – worse baseball flight.
Low humidity – better baseball flight
Weird twist: baseballs don’t always abide by these rules, especially if the elevation is significant enough to help “offset” the humidity effects.
Long story short: cold, damp, humid days = BAD, BAD, BAD for baseball, and just bad for everything sports-related, usually.
Warm, dry days = GOOD, GOOD, GOOD for baseball.”
Target Field in the past has been pretty good for hitters. The dimensions are rather favorable, the deepest part of the stadium is the left corner of the center field wall at 411 feet, the left field wall is 339 feet, while the right field fence is 328 feet. It is worth noting that right field has a very large wall with an overhang, too.
Target Field sits at an elevation of 815 feet, which is the fifth highest in MLB, and it plays a role in some of the park’s offensive output and slight favorability towards hitters.
That elevation benefit takes form in Target Field’s 2024 Variable Extra Distance numbers with an added 1.5 to their total score of 2.7, which ranks fifth in MLB. Variable Extra Distance shows the extra distance added to the ball based on a variety of factors, including average temperature, elevation, environment, and roofs.
Now, by the time the Tigers play tonight, temperatures could dip into the low 40s and high 30s on a night with fairly high humidity, the ball will have a hard time flying, even with low winds and a beneficial hitting park. But I’ve said that more than once a day where the bats produce, too.
Saturday and Sunday are both days where the good weather begins for hitting baseballs better and further. Temperatures will be nearing the 70s with average humidity.
There will be a fair amount of wind on both days, but that can prove to be beneficial or detrimental depending on what direction it blows that day. I am not a meteorologist, so it may be best to wait until the actual day to determine that.
When it comes to overall Park Factor, though, Target Field ranks fifth in MLB with a 102 Park Factor from 2022-2024, meaning there is a lean toward being hitter-friendly. In that time frame, the Park ranks 10th in home runs, fifth in runs, ninth in doubles, and is tied for 16th in triples.
Hitters at Target Field in April last season hit .245 with 25 home runs and a .727 OPS. That is far, far better than what hitters did at Comerica Park or even in Seattle aside from the home runs, which are not drastically different.
Twins pitchers at home last season in April had a 3.42 ERA (second lowest next to the Chicago White Sox). The Tigers’ staff at Target Field had a 1.73 ERA at Target Field in its trips to Minneapolis.
Predictions:
The Tigers come into this series against the Twins with hot bats and three favorable pitching matchups. Tonight, right-hander Reese Olson goes toe-to-toe with right-hander David Festa, on Saturday afternoon, the rookie righty Jackson Jobe squares off against another right-hander in Chris Paddack. The rubber match of the series is a third consecutive right-on-right matchup with Casey Mize facing Simeon Woods-Richardson. None of the three pitchers the Tigers are facing have had much recent MLB success.
This series is a dream for Tigers fans as it seems to align with three straight games with Kerry Carpenter undoubtedly in the lineup against three right-handers. Carpenter raked in Minnesota last year, posting an .OPS of 1.038 in 14 plate appearances. Spencer Torkelson also saw success at Target field as well. In 13 plate appearances, he posted an .885 OPS.
I think both of those guys will continue to hit well, and my hot take on the series is that I believe both Riley Greene and Carpenter will combine for at least four home runs against favorable pitching matchups between the three games.
I will also boldly predict a sweep for the Tigers, as the offense will pounce on questionable pitching while throwing three good arms on the mound.
Park Factor data and Variable Extra Distance data is per Statcast.
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