Riley Greene came out of the gate swinging in 2024. But fast-forward to mid-April 2025, and he’s stuck in a cold spell that’s hard to ignore.
Through the first 13 games of April, Greene is slashing .204/.250/.388 with 22 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 49 at-bats. After a strong start in the first few games, he’s now hitless in his last five games. His early OBP and slugging numbers have dipped well below league average, and the eye test suggests he’s fighting it at the plate.
Look, I’m not a hitting coach or an expert, but this is more than just a rough week. If you dig into the data, and I’ve spent more time than I should on Baseball Savant, it paints a picture of a player who’s adjusting to some deeper issues. It’s early, yes. But something’s clearly not right.
Early season struggles
In 2024, Greene looked like he had taken the leap. He posted a .353 xwOBA, slugged .477, and had a barrel rate of 13.4%. His launch angle was up to 12.2°, and he was consistently squaring up balls in the zone. It looked like the version of Greene fans had been waiting for.
This year? Different story.
- xwOBA: down to .246
- xBA: down to .187
xSLG: down to .346- Barrel %: dropped to 8.3%
- LA Sweet Spot %: fell to 33.3%
- Launch Angle: down to 9.8°
These aren’t just minor dips. They’re sizable drops in early sample size.
Bat Speed Tells a Story
Bat tracking data early deep dive
- 2023: 75.5 mph average bat speed
- 2024: 74.7 mph
- 2025: 73.8 mph
Still above league average (71.5 mph), but the year-over-year decline is way too early to gage but seems noticeable. His fast swing rate—how often he swings at 75+ mph—has dropped from 53.3% in 2023 to just 40.2% this year.
On top of that, his squared-up % is now just 14.6%, down from over 24% a season ago. He’s not barreling the ball the same way, and his contact rate is suffering because of it.
Possible Tinkering with the stance
Looking deeper, Greene has made some clear changes to his setup in the batter’s box. He’s now standing:
- Deeper in the box: 27.8 inches from the plate
- Farther off the plate: also 27.8 inches
- With a wider stance: 30.1 inches between his feet
Compare that to previous years, when he was closer to 23–24 inches off the plate with a narrower base.
Why the change? Hard to say. Maybe to improve pitch recognition or balance. But right now, it looks like it may be hurting his ability to adjust to pitches on the outer third—and could be messing with his timing.
One Silver Lining: The Power Is Still There
Despite all this, Greene’s max exit velocity remains elite. He’s still posting 114+ mph on his hardest-hit balls, which tells us the raw power hasn’t gone anywhere. The swing isn’t broken—but the consistency just isn’t there right now.
So, What’s Next?
Again: it’s early. Really early. Greene’s only had a few dozen batted balls this season. Baseball is built on adjustments, and he still has time to make them.
But right now, he looks like a player stuck between mechanical tweaks and a confidence reset. The tools are still there. The swing decisions and contact just haven’t caught up yet.
Do I think he’ll turn it around? Yeah. But for now, it’s fair to say something’s not quite right.
Have thoughts on Greene’s early-season struggles or your own theory? Drop a comment or tag us on X @TigersMLReport.
Follow me on X: @rogcastbaseball
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