Breaking Down the Detroit Tigers’ Hot Start

We are already 20% of the way through the 2025 season, and the Detroit Tigers currently have the best record in the American League. How are they doing this?

On August 10^th, 2024, the Detroit Tigers had a record of 55-63. Their playoff odds famously dropped to 0.2%, and all hope for a postseason push had evaporated. Until it didn’t.

From August 11^th through the end of the regular season, the Tigers went 31-11, and clinched a postseason berth in the process. Once there, they swept the Houston Astros in the Wild Card round, before falling to the Cleveland Guardians in the Divisional Series.

Heading into the 2025 season, the vibes around the squad were tentatively hopeful. Some regression was to be expected after the unexpected playoff run in ’24, but the organization was on the come up. However, after a failed pursuit of Alex Bregman, and spring training injuries to a key starting pitcher and every center fielder on the roster, all of a sudden many fans were hoping for the Tigers to simply tread water until the cavalry returned. A .500 record through April would have been sufficient. Until it wasn’t.

Detroit currently has the best record in the American League at 20-12, and that’s without several expected key contributors, including Alex Cobb, Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows. Which leads to the question: how are they doing this?

Starting Pitching

It all starts with the starters.

We recently discussed how good the Tigers’ starting rotation has been, and for a quick refresher, they’ve been excellent. Here are the numbers after 6 turns through the rotation:

Tarik Skubal: 34.2IP, 28.8% K rate, 3.6% BB rate, 38.7% GB rate, 0.78 HR/9, .233 BAA, 2.34 ERA

Jack Flaherty: 32.1IP, 28.8% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 40.7% GB rate, 1.39 HR/9, .208 BAA, 3.34 ERA

Reese Olson: 33IP, 23.4% K rate, 10.2% BB rate, 53.4% GB rate, 0.27 HR/9, .223 BAA, 3.55 ERA

Casey Mize: 36.2IP, 18.5% K rate, 6.2% BB rate, 45.5% GB rate, 1.47 HR/9, .226 BAA, 2.70 ERA

Jackson Jobe: 24IP, 17.6% K rate, 13.7% BB rate, 47.8% GB rate, 1.13 HR/9, .205 BAA, 3.38 ERA

Add it all up, and here is where the Tigers’ starters rank in Major League Baseball:

ERA: 4

K%: 9

BB%: 15

GB%: 7

HR/9: 15

BAA: 8

Hard Hit %: 12

Barrel %: 8

It turns out being average to good in nearly every area leads to a strong rotation. But it hasn’t just been the starters pitching well.

Bullpen

A.J. Hinch is known as one of the best managers in baseball, and it shows most of all in his usage of the bullpen.

The Tigers have received very solid production from many members of the ‘pen, and Hinch seems to know exactly who to use and when. Just check out these numbers:

Tommy Kahnle: 12.2IP, 26.1% K rate, 6.5% BB rate, 63.3% GB rate, 0.00 HR/9, .095 BAA, 0.71 ERA

Will Vest: 13IP, 27.5% K rate, 9.8% BB rate, 59.4% GB rate, 0.69 (nice) HR/9, .174 BAA, 2.77 ERA

Tyler Holton: 15.1IP, 23.4% K rate, 7.8% BB rate, 39.5% GB rate, 1.76 HR/9, .237 BAA, 2.93 ERA

Brenan Hanifee: 16.1IP, 17.1% K rate, 4.3% BB rate, 61.1% GB rate, 0.55 HR/9, .227 BAA, 1.10 ERA

Brant Hurter: 17IP, 17.2% K rate, 6.3% BB rate, 54.3% GB rate, 1.06 HR/9, .186 BAA, 2.65 ERA

And here is where the Tigers’ ‘pen ranks as a whole in Major League Baseball:

ERA: 4

K%: 20

BB%: 9

GB%: 1

HR/9: 12

BAA: 6

Hard Hit %: 20

Barrel %: 1

Having both your starters and relievers rank 4^th in all of baseball in ERA is the start of a recipe for a good team. Luckily for the Tigers, they’ve been adding some other ingredients as well.

Offense

Coming into the 2025 season, most fans expected that the success of the Tigers would hinge on pitching, which it has. What most fans didn’t expect was the offense to be this good.

Through 1/5^th of the season, the Tigers’ offense ranks 8^th in all of baseball in runs scored, which feels like a minor miracle due to the tepid starts of some lineup regulars, and also due to injuries to Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling. Seven players have led the way offensively for Detroit, and four of the seven are major surprises:

Spencer Torkelson: 136 PA, .239/.353/.549, 154 wRC+

Riley Greene: 131 PA, .262/.313/.451, 118 wRC+

Zach McKinstry: 117 PA, .316/.405/.459, 149 wRC+

Kerry Carpenter: 104 PA, .265/.291/.520, 129 wRC+

Gleyber Torres: 89 PA, .300/.360/.475, 141 wRC+

Javy Báez: 91 PA, .291/.330/.430, 120wRC+

Dillon Dingler: 87 PA, .291/.299/.500, 127 wRC+

Here are the Tigers’ ranks offensively in Major League Baseball:

Runs: 8

BA: 11

OBP: 9

SLG: 9

HR: 9

Barrel %: 12

Raise your hand if you thought the Tigers would rank in the top 40% in MLB in so many offensive categories. Mine certainly is not.

The Tigers have built their strong start on excellent pitching and better than average hitting. But those aren’t the only areas that impact winning.

Defense

We mentioned earlier that four Tiger hitters were off to surprisingly hot starts offensively. One of them is Spencer Torkelson, who has also continued to show improvement defensively at first base. The other three are Zach McKinstry, Javy Báez and Dillon Dingler.

While Z-Mac, El Mago and Dingers weren’t expected to provide so much value offensively, defensively, they all come with very solid reputations. Those reputations have been solidified this year: per FanGraphs, they rank 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd defensively for the Tigers so far in 2025.

Despite a few dropped popups behind the plate, Dingler has been amazing defensively in place of “The Sheriff” Jake Rogers, ranking in the 88^th percentile or higher in blocks above average, caught stealing above average, and framing per Stacast. While Javy has always been a strong defender, his play on the infield and most surprisingly in center field has been a major key to the Tigers’ defense this season, along with jack of all trades Zach McKinstry.

Overall, Detroit ranks 15^th in MLB in outs above average, 15^th in range factor, and 16^th in defensive runs saved per FanGraphs. With the looming returns of Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows, those numbers may only increase in the coming months.

Baserunning

While often overlooked, baserunning is also a key component to a good baseball team, and starting in the second half of the 2024 season, the Tigers have made aggressive base running their M.O.

Joey Cora is not only an excellent infield coach, but is also a solid and aggressive third base coach. His midseason speech last season is the stuff of legend, and he’s not afraid to bust out the windmill with runners on base.

The Tigers have taken his lead when it comes to baserunning, and per FanGraphs, Detroit currently ranks 5^th in MLB in base runs above average, despite ranking 29^th in the league in stolen bases. Detroit is relentless on the base paths, always putting pressure on the opposition. Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling are two of the best baserunners the Tigers have, and just like on defense, the Tigers’ baserunning may only get better once they return from injuries.

So, while I’m not a math major, I do know that the following equation is accurate: Good Pitching + Good Hitting + Good Defense + Good Baserunning = A Good Team.