The Detroit Tigers came into 2025 believing they had built real depth on the pitching side, and to be fair, there was reason for optimism. But as we hit mid-May, that depth is being tested and in some spots, it’s showing cracks. Casey Mize’s latest injury has once again shuffled the rotation, and with each bullpen game or short outing, the spotlight turns to the options in Toledo.
Let’s get this out of the way early: this isn’t some overreaction to the Tigers dropping a series to the Texas Rangers. Despite their middling offensive rankings, the Rangers still have Corey Seager, Adolis García, and Marcus Semien, guys who can change a game with one swing. The Tigers’ rotation currently ranks sixth in MLB in ERA, and the bullpen has been even better, sitting second overall at 2.72.
This series of articles is less about one tough weekend and more about where the Tigers stand system-wide, a quarterly check-in on the pitching depth, following up on our recent look at potential bullpen reinforcements.
But the issue here is bigger than a tough weekend, it’s about sustainability. Jackson Jobe is a perfect example. There’s no doubt the stuff is elite, but right now, he’s still learning how to pitch.
Jack Flaherty has been brilliant in spots, but the red flags are hard to ignore. The back stiffness that crept up last season, the slight dip in velocity, is exactly the kind of thing that should make Detroit cautious. If he misses time or even takes a step back performance-wise, this team will have to dig into its depth.
Current situation
Keider Montero, coming off an eight-inning start against the Rockies, continues to flash the kind of stuff that could keep him in the mix. Like Jackson Jobe, he’s still working toward consistency, but the raw tools are undeniable. Alex Cobb is nearing a return and received strong reviews after a recent live BP session, though there’s still no firm timetable for his activation. Meanwhile, Sawyer Gipson-Long has begun a rehab assignment and is being stretched out as a starter, with the hope he’ll be ready to return by early June.
Sawyer Gipson-Long works a scoreless first inning in his first official game action in nearly 400 days. Great to see. pic.twitter.com/y1mCgmmYUa
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) May 8, 2025
While the Tigers are navigating uncertainty elsewhere in the rotation, what we’re witnessing from Tarik Skubal right now is nothing short of elite. Over his last six starts (April 8–May 9), Skubal has posted a 0.97 ERA across 37 innings, striking out 50, walking just one, and holding opponents to a .188 batting average.
His command is surgical, the fastball is overpowering, and he’s generating weak contact at a rate that puts him in Cy Young conversation territory again. This is the best stretch of his career, and one of the most dominant we’ve seen from a Tigers’ starter since the prime Verlander years.
Reese Olson, meanwhile, is quietly putting together a solid stretch of his own. Across his last eight starts, Olson owns a 3.38 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 42.2 innings, with 45 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed. The strikeout and groundball numbers are trending up, and he’s emerging as a steady presence behind Skubal when the Tigers need it most.
Toledo at the moment
As the Tigers explore stopgap options, the arms in Toledo and Erie deserve a closer look, especially the veterans with prior MLB experience and the younger names showing flashes of potential.
Dietrich Enns and Matt Gage are two of the most seasoned arms in the mix. Both have had cups of coffee in the big leagues and are currently putting up solid numbers at Triple-A. Enns owns a 2.61 ERA across eight starts and continues to miss bats with his deceptive delivery.
Gage has appeared in 15 games (mostly in relief) and carries a matching 2.61 ERA. Neither is a long-term rotation piece, but both offer a level of predictability that might appeal to a club just trying to bridge a gap until reinforcements like Cobb or Gipson-Long are ready.
Wilkel Hernandez is once again entering the conversation as an intriguing depth option. With a 2.45 ERA over 36.2 innings, his command has taken a step forward this season. The fastball still plays, and if the Tigers need a spot start, he’s pitching his way onto the short list — even if he’s not yet on the 40-man roster.
Then there’s Matt Manning. Once viewed as a rotation mainstay, he’s now in a bit of a reinvention phase. After an uneven start to the year, he’s reportedly working on a new cutter and transitioning into more of a bullpen role.
While the results (6.31 ERA) haven’t been there yet, the hope is that a simplified approach and a tighter pitch mix can help him regain his footing and still provide value at the big-league level, just in a different capacity.
The Erie Arms: Talent Developing, But Not Quite Ready
During the Scott Harris era, there’s been a clear shift in how the Tigers handle their developmental pipeline. Toledo isn’t just a stopover anymore it’s the final proving ground. That’s especially true for pitchers and position players, and there’s a very specific reason for it.
Triple-A Toledo uses the same baseballs as the Major Leagues; slicker, firmer, and harder to grip than the standard issue at Double-A and below. That subtle difference matters. It affects pitch shape, spin, command, all the things that can make or break a young arm at the next level. So, it makes sense that we’re not seeing guys jump straight from Erie to Detroit anymore.
The organization wants to see how they adjust to the real ball before they hand them a job at the big league level. (In case you were curious, thanks to Chris on this, Buck Farmer was the last pitcher to make the jump from Erie to Detroit back in 2014, Erie on 8/7/14, Tigers on 8/13/14)
Down in Double-A Erie, there’s talent, but also a gap that reflects why the Tigers rarely jump pitchers straight from Erie to Detroit anymore. As noted earlier, the baseballs used at this level are tackier and easier to grip than the slick MLB models used in Triple-A and the majors. That difference can exaggerate pitch shape and command, which is exactly why the organization insists pitchers prove themselves in Toledo first.
Garrett Burhenn and Troy Melton are both intriguing arms and are having solid starts to the year. Burhenn has posted a 2.67 ERA over 27 innings with an 8.33 K/9 and excellent walk control, though we have discussed and have noted a possible future shift to the bullpen due to his limited pitch mix.
Melton, who A.J. Hinch is reportedly high on, brings a bit more electricity. He’s struck out 25.2% of the batters he’s faced and has the frame and delivery to stick as a starter. That said, the 8.4% walk rate and .329 BABIP hint at inconsistency, and like Burhenn, there’s some reliever risk if the command doesn’t tighten up.
Jaden Hamm, our minor league pitcher of the year in 2024, continues to make noise as one of the more polished arms in the system. His 10.44 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9 across 25 innings point to a pitcher who’s sequencing well and competing in the zone, and his performance still needs to translate to Toledo before we can start penciling him in as a big-league option.
Joseph Montalvo’s numbers have been shakier, a 5.87 K/9 and 11% walk rate across 23 innings, and he’s further down the depth chart for now. He’ll need to sharpen his control before entering the conversation as he continues to adjust to Double-A.
All told, the Erie group is progressing, but still fits more in the “keep developing” category than the “next man up” mix.
Holding court
The Tigers are playing the long game here, and that means trusting Toledo as the filter before any emergency calls are made. The Tigers have depth, but depth only matters if it’s usable. With Skubal and Olson holding the line, and Cobb and Gipson-Long on the way, there’s hope for stability.
But one more injury or prolonged slump could force the front office into tough decisions, ones that test how much they trust the arms below the surface. And this isn’t happening in a vacuum. The AL Central is not getting any easier. Cleveland has been sharp early, and Kansas City has pitching and just enough offense to be a problem. The division could shape up like last year, where three teams got into the postseason.
So this is the stress test for the system, and as the motto goes, you can never have enough pitching.
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Joe Rampe