We’re now over a third of the way through the MLB regular season, shockingly. Which Detroit Tigers are poised to break out the rest of the season?
As a fan of the 2025 Detroit Tigers, there’s not much to complain about. The team has the best record in the American League, as well as the 3rd best run differential in baseball; and has gotten solid performances up and down the roster, not only from the pitching staff, but from the position players.
Despite the hot start, the Tigers have several divisional foes breathing down their collective neck, which means Detroit will need to continue to play well deep into the year to secure a postseason berth.
Along those lines, the Tigers unfortunately may have a few players that could be due for some regression after hot starts to the season, whether it’s through batted ball luck, or advanced metrics painting a slightly less rosy picture than the actual performances so far.
But regression goes both ways, and just as Detroit has some players who could regress negatively, they also have some players who based on the numbers, could see some regression positively towards the mean.
Let’s take a look at a few Detroit Tigers whose performances could improve the rest of the season (all stats as of Tuesday morning):
Colt Keith: 157 PA, .230/.331/.378, 106 wRC+, 13.4% BB rate, 21% K rate, .148 ISO
Colt Keith has had a weird season so far.
He came into the year being asked to learn a whole new position (1st base), but after Spencer Torkelson lit the world on fire this spring, Keith transitioned back into more of a utility role, having played 10 games at 1st base and 20 games at 2nd base already this season.
Keith also came into the year with many fans (and likely Tigers organization members) expecting his bat to take a step forward this year, after Colt rebounded from a tough start in 2024 before ultimately putting up very solid numbers from May on.
But so far this year, the youngster’s wRC+ (106) is not far off from his season long wRC+ in 2024 (97). With several Tigers regulars performing above expectations, it would be natural to be slightly discouraged with Keith’s performance so far.
But taking a look under the hood, Colt has made several improvements since last season that haven’t quite shown up in his results so far. His 2025 walk rate is 7% higher than last season, while his strikeout rate is slightly higher than last season but still an above average 21%. His line drive percentage, ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage are eerily almost identical to last season, but per Statcast, his expected slugging, barrel percentage, launch angle sweet spot percentage, and chase percentage are all significantly better than last year.
Basically, Keith has been unlucky this year. His BABIP is .273, below league average; and his expected wOBA is also .047 higher than his actual wOBA. The turntables should turn soon, and when they do, The Horse should start getting rewarded.
Spencer Torkelson: 227 PA, .243/.357/.524, 147 wRC+, 13.2% BB rate, 23.8% K rate, .280 ISO
Speaking of turntables turning, how about Spencer Torkelson?
After being figuratively left for dead this offseason when the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres, Tork has re-emerged as not only one of Detroit’s best players, but also as one of the best players in the American League this year.
Torkelson’s 147 wRC+ currently ranks 12th in the AL, and it’s hard to imagine where the Tigers would be without his big right handed bat in the lineup.
After an offseason of adjustments, Spencer has improved across the board from a dispiriting 2024 season. We could list a bunch of stats to prove it, but here’s the most important one: per Statcast, where Torkelson’s page is as deep red as a Dario Argento film, Tork has massively improved in almost every statistic available on the page. Massively.
So why is Torkelson listed here? Because despite the outstanding production, Tork may even be getting a little unlucky so far this year. Like Colt Keith, his BABIP is a low .264, and Spencer’s batted ball profile also shows that he’s hitting more liners and fly balls, and less grounders and infield flies, which is a recipe for success.
It’s hard to imagine Tork being more productive than he’s been so far this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise for his production to increase even more.
Gleyber Torres: 180 PA, .276/.378/.428, 135 wRC+, 12.8% BB rate, 10% K rate, .151 ISO
What a signing Gleyber Torres has proven to be for the Detroit Tigers.
After expecting a multi-year contract heading into the 2024-2025 offseason, Torres’ market was a little more frigid than he and his agents expected; which ultimately led to Gleyber signing a one year pillow contract with the Detroit Tigers.
And not to beat the pillow metaphor to death, but Torres provides a comfort level to the Tigers lineup that has been missing in recent years. His at bats are as solid as they come, as the righty never gives an inch. He has walked more than he’s struck out this year, and provides the batting order with a steady presence at the top of the lineup.
The reason Torres ultimately settled for a one year deal this offseason is that his 2024 season was more solid than spectacular. And while Gleyber’s 2025 back of the card numbers aren’t too far off from last season, the advanced numbers paint a different picture.
Gleyber’s xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, launch angle sweet spot percentage, squared up percentage, chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk percentage and strikeout percentage are all in the 82nd percentile or higher per Statcast, which is almost unbelievable. Like Spencer Torkelson, Torres has massively improved across the board in nearly every metric available from the 2024 season.
You can imagine where we are heading next. Gleyber’s .282 BABIP is a career low, while his expected wOBA is .050 higher than his actual wOBA this year. We think those numbers will stabilize, and lead to even more production out of the already productive Gleyber Torres.
Jack Flaherty: 53.1 IP, 4.39 ERA / 3.34 xFIP, 29.1% K rate, 8.2% BB rate, 36.8% GB rate, 1.86 HR/9, .224 BAA
Like Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty was a free agent this past offseason, and rightfully expecting a lucrative multi-year contract.
But we know what happened next, as a colder than expected market led to Flaherty settling for a one plus one contract from the Detroit Tigers.
Fortunately for the Tigers and Flaherty himself, Jack has given the Tigers everything they could have expected so far this season. He’s second on the team in innings pitched, and has kept the Tigers in nearly every game he’s thrown in so far this season.
Like Gleyber Torres, there was a reason Flaherty wasn’t able to secure a long term deal this offseason. Some of it may have been fear over Flaherty’s medicals, and some of it may have been fear of regression.
On one hand, fears of regression have come true. Jack has an elevated 4.39 ERA, which some teams could point to to prove they were right in passing on the right handed starter.
But we know that ERA isn’t the end-all-be-all, and Flaherty’s strikeout rate is nearly identical to last season’s, just as his average fastball velocity is. A slightly elevated (compared to last season) walk rate hasn’t helped Jack’s cause, but the main culprit of his increased ERA is a 1.86 HR/9, which is over .50 higher than last season, and .50 higher than in any full season of Flaherty’s career.
Jack is giving up more fly balls this season, but is also giving up less line drives; and chances are, some of those fly balls that are leaving the yard will start to find outfielder’s gloves. Flaherty’s xFIP is a full run below his ERA, and with a little more luck on fly balls, those numbers should converge soon.
Tyler Holton: 23.2 IP, 3.80 ERA / 3.42 xFIP, 22% K rate, 7% BB rate, 44.9% GB rate, 1.52 HR/9, .258 BAA
If you’re reading this site, chances are you already know how valuable Tyler Holton has been for the Detroit Tigers the last few years. But to sum it up in one sentence, his 2.15 ERA between the 2023 and 2024 seasons was the 4th lowest among any pitcher in baseball with at least 100 combined innings pitched over those two seasons, behind only Emmanuel Clase, Paul Skenes and Tanner Scott.
While not many Tigers fans expected Holton to keep that level of brilliance up for the 2025 season, expectations were still high for Tyler heading into this year. And while he’s been fairly solid for the average reliever, his ERA is currently 6th among all Tiger relievers with at least 10 innings pitched.
The eye test shows that Holton has been battling his control somewhat this season, and the numbers back that up (7% BB rate compared to 4.8% last season). But his strikeouts are up compared to last year, and his velo is basically the same. Similar to Jack Flaherty, the main culprit for Holton’s relative “down” year is a massive increase in home run rate: 1.52 HR/9 compared to 0.67 in 2024.
Tyler is actually giving up less fly balls than last year, but the problem is that over 10% more are leaving the yard. The hunch is that not only will that normalize, but Holton’s control will lock in soon as well. If and when those two things happen, Tyler should be right back on track as one of the best relievers in baseball.
Rogelio Castillo 
Emily Waldon 
Ashley Couturier