Should the Detroit Tigers Call Up Kevin McGonigle? It’s Complicated

There’s been a lot of discussion online about whether or not the Tigers should call up Kevin McGonigle. Well, should they?

Kevin McGonigle may be the most advanced hitting prospect the Detroit Tigers have had in decades.

Not only is his hit tool considered elite, but his swing decisions and plate discipline are as well. Power was the main question for McGonigle coming out of the draft, but he just launched his 20^th home run of the year this weekend, and his ISO ranks in the top five among all minor league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this season.

To put a stamp on how good of a season McGonigle is having at the plate: in the last 20 years, Kevin McGonigle is the only minor league hitter to have a wRC+ of 175 or higher while walking 25% more than he struck out in the same season (minimum 400 plate appearances).

McGonigle is about as much of a “sure thing” as you’ll find in a prospect offensively, and it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t think he will hit in the big leagues.

So with that as the backdrop: the Tigers offense has been scuffling of late, and Colt Keith’s injury left a hole in the Tigers infield. McGonigle just so happens to be an infielder and is as advanced of a hitting prospect as they come. Which begs the question: shouldn’t he be in Detroit?

To try to answer that question, let’s start by looking at the past. What does history say about how top prospects do when they reach the big leagues? And what does history say about when they get called up? Let’s find out together.

In order to gather our data set, we looked at the top five prospects of each year from 2011-2020 (per MLB Pipeline), and pulled all of the prospects that were hitters. We then looked at their OPS after 25 MLB games, or less if they debuted too late in the year to get to 25 games.

Here’s the data:

That’s a lot of numbers, but here’s the takeaway: the non-weighted average OPS for those top prospects in their first 25 MLB games was .751, which is pretty respectable.

We also wanted to take a look at when they debuted, as well as if their team was in the middle of a pennant race.

The average debut month for these 32 players was June, which makes a lot of sense due to service time manipulation. Of those 32, only 10 debuted in August or later; and of those 10, only seven of those players were on teams in the middle of a pennant race. How did those seven perform?

That’s also a lot of numbers, but the takeaway is that those players had a non-weighted average OPS of .732 in their first 25 MLB games, which again is very respectable.

So now that we know that it is possible for top prospects to succeed in their first 25 games, including those who get called up in the middle of a pennant race at the end of the season, let’s dig a little deeper into McGonigle’s case specifically.

It’s one thing for a top prospect to put up big numbers like OPS and wRC+, but how they get there is just as important. And in Kevin McGonigle’s case, how he gets there is with elite plate discipline, which is another factor that Detroit has certainly considered.

But let’s take one more look at one specific situation that closely matches McGonigle’s.

Alex Bregman is the player most often compared to Kevin McGonigle, and all you have to do is take a look at these numbers to see why:

Kevin McGonigle Age 20 (A, +A, AA): .305/.408/.583, 19 HR, 14.9 BB%, 11.6 K%, 1.28 BB/K, .278 ISO, .447 wOBA, 182 wRC+

Alex Bregman Age 22 (AA, AAA): .306/.406/.580, 20 HR, 12.8 BB%, 10.3 K%, 1.24 BB/K, .274 ISO, .431 wOBA, 178 wRC+

In 2016, the Houston Astros were fighting for a playoff spot, and called up Bregman for his major league debut on July 25th.

After 25 games, Bregman was hitting .229/.287/.381.

The final piece of this puzzle that often gets left out is McGonigle’s defense. While he’s a solid defender overall, most would agree that his bat is ahead of his defense, and there’s some question about what his ultimate home in the field will be. There’s something to be said about putting your best defense out there in a postseason push as to not give away outs, and that is also certainly a factor that Detroit has considered.

Most likely, the Tigers calculus boils down to this: they don’t want to put McGonigle in the middle of a pennant race this late in the season, which is understandable for several reasons, and backed up by the data that says teams generally don’t promote prospects this late in the season in the middle of a playoff push. Additionally, they want him to continue to work on his defense in the Arizona Fall League, and are leery about putting him in the infield in the middle of an intense playoff push when every out matters.

So what’s the right call? There’s really no way of knowing since Detroit is on record saying McGonigle won’t be promoted.

Some fans have questioned a few of Scott Harris’ moves as President of Baseball Operations, which is fair. But most would agree that the developmental team led by Ryan Garko has drastically improved, and is in a pretty good spot. They have the data and the expertise, and they’ve decided that McGonigle isn’t ready quite yet.

They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.

Let’s wrap things up with this:

Top 5 fWAR from 2016-2025: 1st 25 games MLB career

Aaron Judge: .177/.258/.316 (.574)

Mookie Betts: .247/.337/.407 (.744)

Francisco Lindor: .223/.257/.311 (.568)

José Ramírez: .162/.205/.216 (.421)

Freddie Freeman: .153/.153/.282 (.435)

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