Justice Bigbie is forging his way up through the minors

So often, when a topic is discussed, it is referred to something familiar. For example, when it comes to anything of a scandalous nature, the suffix “gate” is often added to the end of the sentence, a reference to the Watergate political scandal in 1972. However, Watergate was simply the name of the building where the wiretapping occurred. So, what does this minor history lesson have to do with prospects?

Ever since Justice Bigbie arrived in Erie and began producing, he has been compared to Kerry Carpenter. Both were drafted in the 19th round, making the comparison easy. But Bigbie’s body of work distinguishes him as his own individual.

Because of the cancelation of the minor league season in 2020, Kerry Carpenter started the 2021 season in Double-A Erie after spending the 2019 season in Low-A. Here’s how he fared in his first 44 games:

May 5 to June 25, 2021: .253/.322/.405/ OPS .727, BABIP .292 – 5HR – 9 2B – 30RBI – 12BB – 37SO – 7 multi-hit games. 

As you may remember, this is before he changed his swing mechanics in the off-season, which we highlighted in May 2022.

As far as where he hit the ball, overall in 2021, 47.7% was pull, 26.6% center and 28.4% opposite field. He was still hitting flyballs around a 40% clip.

Justice Bigbie’s Double-A Tear

June 13 to August 13: .364/.415/.594 OPS 1.009, BABIP .381 – 9HR – 11 2B – 33RBI – 12BB – 24SO – 19 multi hit games.

Bigbie’s batting average is just 17 points off his BABIP, so even if his batted-ball luck regresses, it would align with his current performance. The longest streak in which he has not had a hit was an eight at-bat stretch at Harrisburg on June 17. His ball placement differs from Carpenter’s. He pulls the ball just 37% of the time, but has gone opposite field more often, nearly 39%. In other words, he takes what the pitcher gives him and goes with it.

The most significant difference has been in the ratio of flyballs to groundballs. Carpenter put the ball on the ground at a 39.3% clip before his swing change in 2021, whereas Bigbie is around 48%, with a flyball ratio of about 30%. The biggest difference is in power numbers. Carpenter posted a .152 ISO compared to Bigbie’s .230 ISO. Anything over .200 at Double-A indicates those numbers may translate at the big league level.

The question frequently asked on Twitter is when will Bigbie get the call-up to Toledo. The Mud Hens have a crowded outfield, so his promotion may depend on whether Detroit decides to call up Parker Meadows, Andre Lipcius, Ryan Kreidler, Wenceel Perez, or Eddys Leonard, who are all on the 40-man roster.

Tigers fans should appreciate what may soon occur again: late-round draft success from a positional player standpoint. But that seems to be where the similarities between Bigbie and Carpenter start and end.

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