Why Ty Madden was roughed up in his Mud Hens debut

Right-handed pitcher Ty Madden is generally considered one of the Detroit Tigers’ best prospects. He ranks 5th in the system according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, and The Athletic ranks him 8th. We have him slightly lower, ranking him 10th in the system.

Landing in the top ten of a highly regarded farm system is generally a good marker for success. But some fans have been curious. Why is it taking so long for Ty Madden to climb through the system? He was the second of Detroit’s two first-round picks in 2021 (after Jackson Jobe) and he seemed to be moving quickly, reaching Double-A Erie by the end of the 2022 season.

But then Madden spent all of 2023 back in Erie. And he was assigned to the SeaWolves again to start the 2024 season. He finally got the call up to the Toledo Mud Hens last week, but his Triple-A debut was ugly: 3IP – 7H – 7ER – 3BB -4K – 2HR. It was Madden’s worst outing as a professional.

So what’s the issue here? Was it the bump in competition? His command? His stuff? And should we care much about one outing? We’ll answer all those questions in a moment. But first, if you want, you can watch his full outing to judge for yourself:

The Opponent

Ty Madden and the Mud Hens were taking on the Columbus Clippers, the Triple-A affiliate of the Cleveland Guardians. They are currently near the basement in the International League West Division standings, but they aren’t short on talent. Their roster boasts six hitters who land in Cleveland’s top 30 prospects.

But these players are mostly familiar to Madden. Detroit and Cleveland affiliates play each other in the Midwest League and the Eastern League. In his seven previous outings against Guardians affiliates Madden owned a 2.52 ERA over 35.2IP, with 43 strikeouts against 10 walks.

Madden had squared off against six Columbus hitters before, mostly with success. Jose Tena was 4-for-8 with a double, and Juan Brito 2-for-5 with a double. But Jonathan Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneeman, and Bryan Lavastida were a combined 2-for-20 with 10 strikeouts against Madden.

The three batters Madden hadn’t seen before — Myles Straw, Kyle Manzardo, and George Valera — combined to go 3-for-5 with three extra-base hits and two walks. So sure, maybe not knowing the hitters as well was an issue. But the biggest blow of the game was the first-inning grand slam by Rodriguez, who was previously 1-for-7 with 5 strikeouts against Madden. So it probably wasn’t just new faces causing the issue.

Ty Madden Command

Ty Madden has been a slightly below-average strike thrower in his pro career. He came into this year with a career walk rate of 8.9%, while the average MLB starter sits around 7.5%. He’s not wild, per se, but he’s definitely more of a control-over-command pitcher. He’s generally near the strike zone, but he occasionally loses it for multiple batters at a time.

And that seemed to happen right away on Wednesday night. He walked three of the first five batters he faced, and just three of his first nineteen pitches found the zone. Two of those three strikes went for a triple and a home run. It was an ugly start.

The good news is Madden didn’t walk anyone else. And, after those first five batters, he threw strikes at a 70% clip. So maybe it was just a case of nerves. Or maybe it just took him a moment to to adjust to the Triple-A baseball, which is said to be more tightly wound and have lower seams. Or perhaps it took him a little longer to get a feel for the Automated Ball-Strike System in Triple-A.

Ty Madden Stuff

Back in 2022 we went to Lansing and caught a series between the West Michigan Whitecaps and the Lugnuts. On most of those days we were joined by a helpful, talkative crosschecker for a National League club.

He HATED Ty Madden. Not the person, of course, but the pitcher. He thought his fastball was average at best, and on the 20-80 scouting scale he gave Madden’s slider a 30 (very bad) and his curveball a 20 (unusable).

We put a lot of value on the opinions of scouts at Tigers Minor League Report. They do this for a living, and they see things we don’t. However, we do have one slight advantage over most scouts: we see these players all the time.

Scouts are paid to form opinions with relatively limited data and viewings, and for the most part they do a remarkable job. But they aren’t perfect. And most don’t have the time or resources to watch 400+ at-bats or 20 starts for individual players.

That scout wasn’t wrong. He saw Ty Madden’s worst start of the season, and bad Ty Madden looks like a career minor leaguer. But we had seen every other Ty Madden start, too. Good Ty Madden sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, touches 98 regularly, locates a plus slider, and mixes in enough changes/splitters, curves, and cutters to keep hitters off balance.

The biggest issue with Ty Madden is consistency. The Good Madden and the Bad Madden both show up a few times a year, but most of his other outings are somewhere in between. And you never really know which version you’ll get. Wednesday’s start was definitely Bad Madden.

His fastball sat at 93.7 and topped out at 95.4 MPH. And that was his most effective offering, drawing six whiffs on 19 swings. He couldn’t land his slider for strikes, the grand slam came against a hanger, and he only threw his new split-change a handful of times. That’s not the same pitcher as this guy.

Should Fans Be Worried?

Probably not. It was just one game, after all. And it came on the heels of a very nice final outing with Erie. But, fans may need to prepare for a future where Ty Madden is pitching out of a big-league bullpen instead of the rotation. Of course, we thought the same thing about Reese Olson, and he seems to have worked out just fine as a starter.

As always, we’ll keep an eye on Ty Madden (and every other prospect in the system) and let you know how things are progressing.