Detroit Tigers Starting Rotation 2025: What to expect?

The Detroit Tigers are poised to enter 2025 with a starting rotation brimming with both promise and questions. After a 2024 season that saw a surprising late surge into the postseason — snapping a playoff drought that dated back to 2014 — Detroit will lean heavily on Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe to spearhead the “pitching chaos.”

Let’s breakdown each pitcher’s 2024 performance (strengths and concerns), and what projection systems say for 2025.

Tarik Skubal: The Triple Crown Winner

Detroit’s rotation revolves around Tarik Skubal, who blossomed into one of baseball’s elite arms in 2024. Skubal posted an 18-4 record with a 2.39 ERA. leading the American League in wins, ERA and strikeouts (228). His Triple Crown puts him in the illustrious company of fellow Detroit Tigers winners Ty Cobb (1909), Hal Newhouser (1945), Justin Verlander (2011), and Miguel Cabrera (2012).

Skubal’s metrics back up the breakout: a 30.3% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and a dominant 25.7% K-BB%, top five among qualified starters. His FIP (2.49) essentially mirrored his ERA, while batters posted just a .246 wOBA against him (.257 xwOBA), signaling no fluke.

According to Statcast, Skubal limited hard contact to a 33.9% hard-hit rate and 6.7% barrel rate. His five-pitch arsenal — four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup and knuckle-curve — kept hitters off balance all year. His fastball averaged 96.9 mph and ranked in the 99th percentile in run value.

Opponents batted just .201 with a .558 OPS against Skubal. Over his final 10 outings, he went 5–0 with a 1.85 ERA during Detroit’s Wild Card push. His health was a concern in previous seasons, but he held up over 31 starts and 192 innings. Even with an 80% strand rate that may regress, his expected ERA still sat in the high-2s.

Projections remain high: Steamer forecasts a 2.92 ERA over 196 innings; ZiPS is even more optimistic with a 2.74 ERA. Both peg him for 5 to 6 WAR.

Jack Flaherty: A Veteran Reborn

Slotted behind Skubal is Jack Flaherty, signed by Detroit prior to 2024. Once a Cy Young contender in 2019, Flaherty had battled injuries and inconsistency until a bounce-back season in Detroit. He posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 28 starts (162 innings), split between Detroit and a late-season stint with the Dodgers. The organization helped him gain velocity in 2024, so why not go back to the well again?

Flaherty rediscovered his command, walking just 1.6 per 9 innings while striking out 11.2 per 9. In 13 starts with the Tigers, he posted a 2.21 ERA with a 29% K rate and 4.5% BB rate. His reworked pitch mix — heavy on fastballs, sliders, and curves — helped. Hitters batted .237 off his four-seam, .239 off his slider and .182 off the curve.

Injuries remain a concern. A back issue cost him time in June, and he struggled in the playoffs (7.36 ERA across 22 postseason innings).

Projection systems expect regression: Steamer projects a 3.73 ERA in 170 innings; ZiPS projects a 3.85 ERA over 158 innings. If Flaherty maintains his improved command, he could exceed those forecasts and form a potent 1-2 punch with Skubal.

Reese Olson: Emerging Mid-Rotation Arm

Reese Olson quietly impressed in 2024 and looks poised for a reliable role in 2025. In his first full MLB season, Olson posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 101 strikeouts over 112 1/3 innings (22 starts).

He isn’t flashy — his fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s — but his results were effective. A 50.6% ground-ball rate and just 0.56 HR/9 showed his knack for keeping the ball in the park. His .282 wOBA allowed (.296 xwOBA) and 5.5% barrel rate back up his ERA, despite a below-average 67.6% strand rate.

Olson’s 21.5% strikeout rate and 7.0% walk rate give him a league-average K-BB%, though a 43.7% hard-hit rate signals room for improvement. If he can tick up his strikeouts or reduce hard contact, he may beat projections.

Steamer projects a 3.86 ERA in 144 innings; ZiPS is at 3.94 in 125 innings. Olson’s WAR (~2.5) reflects a valuable middle-rotation contributor — the kind every contender needs.

Casey Mize: He Has His Health

Casey Mize is the biggest X-factor in Detroit’s rotation. The former No. 1 overall pick missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery and returned in 2024 to mixed results: a 4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 102 1/3 innings.

Mize battled rust and injury, including a midseason hamstring strain. His strikeout rate fell to 17.3%, and his 44.6% hard-hit rate was one of the highest on the team. Still, he posted a 49.6% ground-ball rate and 7.1% walk rate, maintaining strong control even without swing-and-miss stuff.

Spring training 2025 offered hope: Mize logged a 1.13 ERA over 16 Grapefruit League innings. His confidence and pitch sharpness appear improved. He is throwing three different sliders, and if his new, harder splitter can continue to swings and misses, he could be what the Tigers expect him to be, an innings eater.

Steamer projects a 4.14 ERA over 124 innings; ZiPS sees a 4.33 ERA across 112 innings. If Mize returns to his pre-injury form — he had a 3.71 ERA in 2021 — he could elevate the Tigers’ ceiling.

Jackson Jobe: Rookie of the Year Candidate 

Jobe, 22, (TMLR number one prospect) is the most exciting addition. In the minors, he dominated Double-A Erie (1.95 ERA, 91 Ks in 73.2 innings) and features a plus-plus slider, upper-90s fastball and a developing curve.

Jobe’s elite spin rates and command have drawn comparisons to top-tier prospects. Detroit is easing him in — he may be capped around 120–130 innings — but the stuff is MLB-ready.

Steamer projects a 4.64 ERA over 130 innings; ZiPS forecasts 4.61 in 94 innings. These reflect the typical rookie learning curve. Still, the upside is sky-high.

A Look Back: Rotational Comparisons to Tigers Past

Tigers fans know that Detroit’s best teams were powered by strong rotations — and the 2025 group stands on the shoulders of those who came before them. If this current staff wants to lead the team back to October, they’ll need to blend elements of what worked in 1968, 1984, and during the team’s dominant runs in the 2010s.

1968: The Power of an Ace and a Hero

The 1968 “Year of the Pitcher” was defined in Detroit by Denny McLain, who became the last pitcher to win 30 games in a season. He threw 336 innings, posted a 1.96 ERA, and won both the AL MVP and Cy Young Award. But as dominant as McLain was, the Tigers don’t win the World Series without Mickey Lolich. Lolich’s three complete-game wins in the Fall Classic — including Game 7 on short rest — made him the unsung hero of the staff.

The rest of the rotation, including Earl Wilson and Joe Sparma, provided steady innings. It was a top-heavy but battle-tested group. McLain was the workhorse ace; Lolich emerged as the October star. That’s the dynamic Detroit hopes to replicate in 2025 — Skubal as the dominant regular-season force, and perhaps Flaherty as the experienced arm who rises in high-leverage moments. Flaherty even said he would have made a difference in the Cleveland series. If Mize or Jobe can turn into this generation’s Lolich — someone who finds another level in the postseason — the formula will start to feel familiar.

1984: Depth, Durability and Development

Fast forward to 1984. Jack Morris anchored the staff, tossing over 240 innings with his signature competitiveness. Behind him, Dan Petry (3.24 ERA) was quietly excellent. The rotation also featured Milt Wilcox (17 wins), Juan Berenguer and Dave Rozema — a group that may not have had overpowering stuff, but consistently delivered quality starts.

That rotation was built through a mix of drafts and some key free agents. Morris and Petry were drafted and developed. Wilcox was a buy-low veteran pickup. Berenguer was acquired via trade and turned into a high-leverage contributor/swing-man. The key was that all five could take the ball every fifth day and give Sparky Anderson six innings or more — something Detroit lacked in the lean years of the 2010s and hopes to regain now.

The 2025 version of this balance might look like Skubal as the Morris-like tone-setter, Flaherty as the veteran influence, Olson as the Wilcox-type glue guy, and Mize or Jobe stepping into Berenguer’s breakout shoes. It’s not always about assembling five Cy Young candidates — it’s about reliability and cohesion.

2010s: Star Power at the Top

Then there’s the 2011–2014 era, where Detroit boasted arguably the most talented rotation in baseball. In 2013 alone, the Tigers had Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Aníbal Sánchez, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello — five pitchers who all posted sub-4 ERAs and combined for over 20 WAR.

That group wasn’t just dominant — it was historic. Verlander had already won a Cy Young and MVP. Scherzer was ascending and would win the Cy Young in 2013. Sánchez led the league in ERA. Fister was as underrated a No. 4 as you could ask for. Porcello was the fifth starter and would go on to win a Cy Young (albeit controversially, Verlander had the better stats) a few years later with Boston.

That staff was built differently than ’68 or ’84 — it was star-driven, with elite velocity and power arms who could overwhelm lineups. But it also showed what happens when everything clicks. There’s a clear aspirational path for 2025: Skubal is now putting up Verlander/Scherzer-type numbers, Flaherty has the past pedigree and bounce-back potential, and the trio of Olson, Mize and Jobe echoes how Fister and Porcello filled out the rotation — young, talented, with room to grow.

What sets the 2025 group apart is that it’s being built organically. While the 2010s teams often relied on high-priced trades or acquisitions, this rotation is the product of smart drafting, player development and measured free agent decisions. That puts it closer in spirit to 1984 or 1968 than the superstar-driven 2013 staff.

If the Tigers can replicate the balance of ’84, the breakout potential of ’68, and the ceiling of the 2013 team, they won’t just be competitive — they’ll be dangerous.

Depth Matters: Filling the Gap Behind the Starting Five

While much of the attention rightfully falls on the Tigers’ projected top five, the full story of a successful rotation includes the depth behind them — and Detroit has several intriguing options. Keider Montero made his MLB debut in 2024 and, despite some inconsistency, showed flashes with a high-velocity fastball and developing slider. He’s likely first in line if the Tigers need a spot starter.

Brant Hurter, a crafty left-hander with a deceptive delivery and advanced command, had a solid year in Triple-A Toledo and could be a plug-and-play option for back-end innings. Sawyer Gipson-Long, who missed most of 2024 due to injury after a promising late-2023 debut (3.38 ERA over four starts), is expected to return early in 2025 and could re-enter the mix with his strong changeup-slider combo.

The one pitcher who could be a boom or a bust  is Alex Cobb, the veteran right-hander signed to a one-year deal with incentives. Cobb is recovering from offseason hip surgery and likely won’t be available until late spring or early summer. But if healthy, he brings playoff experience and a sinker-splitter arsenal that could provide much-needed stability. Together, this group gives Detroit a more credible rotation safety net than it’s had in years — something that could make all the difference over a 162-game grind.

Conclusion: A Narrative of Hope and Caution

As 2025 begins, Tigers fans have a reason to be optimistic. Each pitcher brings a unique story:

• Skubal is an ace with data to match.

• Flaherty is the veteran rebirth.

• Olson is the steady riser.

• Mize is the redemption arc.

• Jobe is the future.

Projection systems — and the eye test — suggest this rotation can be competitive. Here’s a summary:

(Source: FanGraphs Steamer and ZiPS)

This could be the rotation that changes Detroit’s trajectory. And if it holds together — if each chapter of this rotation’s story stays compelling — it may just lead to meaningful baseball in September.