Kicking off the third edition of my Ballpark Factor Series, we’re headed to the heart of Detroit, Comerica Park. Finally, the Tigers get to come back home from a six-game road trip to the West Coast. I wrote about both Los Angeles and Seattle in two articles detailing what to expect from those parks.
My predictions about both series were so-so, especially my Seattle predictions. I was befuddled to see the amount of runs scored and the power in that series, simply based upon the park, both pitching staffs and the offenses on both sides.
But anyway, on to Comerica Park, the home of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers will be taking on the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees consecutively, starting with Chicago on Friday, April 4, and ending with the Yankees on Wednesday, April 9.
Comerica Park has been notorious for being more friendly to pitchers throughout its history, except for Miguel Cabrera and some others who made the park look small.
But before I dive into the stats, let me refer back to the cheat sheet I created in my first edition of this series for Los Angeles:
“In basic terms: Low density – better ball flight.
High density – worse ball flight.
High humidity – worse baseball flight.
Low humidity – better baseball flight
Weird twist: baseballs don’t always abide by these rules, especially if the elevation is significant enough to help “offset” the humidity effects.
Long story short: cold, damp, humid days = BAD, BAD, BAD for baseball, and just bad for everything sports-related, usually.
Warm, dry days = GOOD, GOOD, GOOD for baseball.”
Comerica Park in Detroit sits at an elevation of 600 feet above sea level, which is not bad, nor is it great. The park gets an extra 0.5 added to its variable extra distance because of the elevation, but again, it’s rather insignificant. But better than Seattle!
Detroit falls into the classification of a temperate climate, and more specifically a humid continental climate. Which essentially means that here are warm, humid summers (sometimes even very hot) and cold winters. But as any Michigander that’s reading this knows, the weather is never very consistent.
The main constant is that the summers are warm, and on average, fall and spring are relatively cold with occasional warm temperatures, and winter overall is cold too.
Now, Comerica Park’s variable extra distance is one of the lowest in MLB, ranking just 28th, and that’s because of a variety of different factors, but most importantly, it’s because of the environment category. The environment category factors in wind and humidity, among other things.
Temperatures in Detroit are not supposed to surpass 52 degrees as a high and could even get as low as 39 degrees for a high against the Yankees. This will likely play a factor into the performance of both teams (maybe the Tigers can borrow the “torpedo” bats, though?).
There may also be some rain during a couple of the days at home for the Tigers. But more importantly, we’re going to see mostly average to above average humidity on those days, with some steady winds, which could either benefit or harm Tigers hitters, depending on the direction.
It’s important to note that home plate at Comerica Park faces southeast. In looking at the projected wind directions, most seem to be blowing in towards the batter. Granted, I am not a weather scientist, but these are projected wind directions and speeds. But from an initial look, it doesn’t seem like it will be too kind.
Overall, from 2022 to 2024, Comerica Park ranks 21st in Park Factor, 25th in home runs, and 23rd in doubles. But, Comerica Park ranks fourth in triples in the same time frame due to its deep alleys in left and right center.
Aside from semi-short porches in left field (342 feet) and right field (330 feet), Comerica Park has long gaps and one of the longest center field walls in MLB at 412 feet. The dimensions are not friendly to those who lack power, but they can make up for it with speed.
Hitters at Comerica Park in April last year hit just .200, with 29 home runs and a .568 OPS. That’s even worse than Seattle in the same time frame last season, aside from the home runs.
The Tigers’ pitching staff at home last season, throughout the year, had the fourth-best ERA in MLB (3.55) overall. They totaled an ERA of 3.26 in April between home and away. The Tigers were also tied for fifth in opponents’ batting average (.228) in home games last season.
On the other side, the Tigers ranked sixth in MLB in ERA (3.68) in away games last season and tied for 10th in opponents’ batting average (.239). What we can tell from those statistics, among others, is that the drop-off wasn’t nearly as significant between home and away as it was for the Mariners, but Comerica Park still helps the Tigers.
Predictions:
Technically, I have two series to predict for. But before I do that, I’ll say that between both series, I think the recent jolt the Tiger offense had in Seattle may not continue to the extent that it was, especially due to possible poor weather conditions and Comerica Park generally not being kind to hitters in April.
With the series against the White Sox, it’s beneficial to be playing the White Sox, quite frankly. Even if they’ve looked a little better (2.83 ERA so far this season), their roster is still… interesting? Yeah, that’s the world I’ll go with.
The Tigers get to face righties Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin before finishing off the series against the veteran southpaw Martin Perez, all three of whom have had terrific starts so far this season (no earned runs allowed between all three). Despite that, they’ve only won two games due to some pretty poor offensive performances and a bullpen that can be shaky at times.
The Tigers also have the luxury of trotting out three good right-handers in Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, and Jackson Jobe against an offense that’s been inconsistent.
I don’t expect this series to be a bludgeoning by any means due to the recent success of the White Sox pitching staff and some close games with both Seattle and the Dodgers not being won. I think the Tigers still take this series 2-1, with a solid chance at a sweep.
My hot take is that outfielder Riley Greene is the MVP of the series and continues to hit the ball well. I’m going to say that he hits at least one home run and drives in five throughout the series. The Tigers will benefit tremendously from the weather and favorable matchups against the White Sox lineup.
Now, on to the Yankees. This series may be less fun but maybe more exciting to watch for those who like home runs. The big talk of the sport right now is the “torpedo” bats, but torpedo bat or not, this is an extremely dangerous offense.
There are no probable pitchers announced for the Yankees series, but based on how the Tigers have lined up so far, it will likely be right-hander Casey Mize, followed by the ace lefty, Tarik Skubal, and Flaherty, once again.
That’s a good trio of pitchers facing off against a Yankees team that leads the league in home runs and OPS. I expect this series to favor the Yankees, but behind a strong staff, the Tigers should be able to contain the offense for at least one game.
My hot take for the series against the Yankees is that I believe Skubal rebounds with a dominant performance and goes deep into a game, leading to a win for the Tigers.
Park Factor data and Variable Extra Distance data is per Statcast.
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