Ballpark Factor Series: Milwaukee Edition

Welcome to my fifth and final edition of this ballpark factor series. I said at the beginning of the season that I’d be looking at the first five ballparks the Detroit Tigers would be playing in, and it just so happens that the Tigers don’t play an away game after this particular series until April 28th. With that being said, don’t be surprised if I break down some more at some point.

So, where are we going for this edition? We’re going to Milwaukee, WI. We’re here to look at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The park opened up in 2001 and has an interesting layout. The park has a retractable roof, but it was only used about 45% of the time in 2024 (100% so far this season). That is a step up from Seattle’s 16%, though. 

The Tigers line up against the Milwaukee Brewers starting tonight at 7:40 pm ET. It will be the start of a three-game series that concludes on Wednesday, April 16.

In looking at American Family Field, the data on this season is inconclusive, so I won’t use it to make too many key points just yet. I will use 2024’s complete data instead, but with that being said, there have been enough games played, especially with the roof closed for every home game, that I will make that a point of emphasis at times.

Now, usually, I’d look at the weather and make points using that as well. But Milwaukee’s weather doesn’t look all too great for the upcoming games over the next three days. Now, if this was Seattle we were talking about, there may be some debate as to whether or not the roof would be open. But considering that America Family Field has closed its roof for each of its six home games this season, it may be safe to assume that it will be closed again.

There is a chance of rain, and temperatures are likely in the high 30s or low 40s by game time. Not to mention the giant “Gale Warning” sign up on the Weather Channel’s website when looking at Milwaukee, aka very, very strong winds. So… That roof will be closed.

Temperatures aren’t going to get much above 50 degrees during the Tigers’ time in Milwaukee, and the winds look like they’ll be rather strong. Again, it’s a safe assumption to say that there will be a closed roof for this series against the Brewers.

The park itself, according to Statcast, has a 65.4-degree average temperature this season with the roof enclosed.

That tracks; so far this season, American Family Field is ranked fourth in MLB in Variable Extra Distance leaderboard. How much has the 100% roof closure contributed to that? Well, it adds 3.8 to its overall score of 7.9, while the environment adds 6.9. Surprisingly, despite the stadium being closed so far, and probably a cozy place to watch a game, the temperature took away 3.3 in extra distance from the final score.

Last season, American Family Field ranked seventh overall in MLB in Variable Extra Distance, and it’s overall total was 2.2. The environment, compared to now, only added 0.4, while the temperature only took away 0.4, instead of 3.3 in 2025 to this point.

American Family Field also sits at 597 feet in elevation, which doesn’t significantly affect the results of games. It has only slightly benefited the teams playing there.

All of these things sound pretty hitter-friendly, and, heck, even the dimensions (344 feet to left field, 400 to center field, 345 to right field) are not entirely pitcher-friendly.

But the park from 2022-2024 ranked 25th in overall Ballpark Factor, but was sixth in MLB in home runs. It was 15th in triples, 28th in doubles, 22nd in runs, third in walks, and 2nd to T-Mobile Park in strikeouts, as well.

This data is odd because it points to being a good home run ballpark, but far below average for extra base hits, great for walking, and great for pitchers to strike out batters. 

Hitters, in general, had quite a bit of success at American Family Field. Overall, hitters hit .258 with 32 home runs and a .722 OPS in April of 2024. This is even higher than Target Field (aside from a slightly lower OPS), which we looked at in the last edition, and it seemed hitter-friendly. 

Pitchers at American Family Field had a high ERA (5.49), and a .701 opposing OPS, though, which tracks back to the idea that despite the Park Factor leaning towards pitchers, April might be a month for hitters at this park, and that a lot of home runs are hit there.

Predictions

This series may be hard to predict. The Brewers are a good team and were fantastic last season but are 17th in .OPS, tied for 13th in home runs, 15th in average, tied for 15th in doubles and are fifth in runs scored this season.

I just want to say, too, that without diving too deep into everything, on the surface, the park stats are very odd at times, and so is its current rank. The Brewers team seems middle-of-the-pack in most big hitting categories but still manufacture runs. Being top 10 in steals helps in doing that, too, though.

The pitching staff, though, is the rough portion to this point in the season for the Brewers. They have a 4.93 team ERA that ranks 28th in MLB. They also are 24th in WHIP, 30th in home runs allowed, 22nd in hits allowed, tied for 20th in opposing batting average, and 26th in opposing OPS. 

The pitching matchups for the Tigers line up with the ace lefty Tarik Skubal on the bump tonight against former Tiger lefty Tyler Alexander, The following game is the righty Jack Flaherty taking on right-hander Quinn Priester. The rubber match is the young right-hander Reese Olson taking on the veteran lefty Jose Quintana.

Both Quintana and Priester have only pitched once this year and were not a part of the barrage at the beginning of the year that put the Brewers where they are in the rankings now. But the Tigers still have the edge in pitching.

The bats, though, are where I expect the Tigers to take this series over. I think this will be another 2-1 series win. Unfortunately, lefties can leave the threat of Kerry Carpenter out of the lineup, but he’s in against a left-hander tonight.

My hot take of the series is that Spencer Torkelson takes advantage of facing two lefties and hits two home runs this series. 

Park Factor data and Variable Extra Distance data is per Statcast.

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