Part one of a series about roster makeup for the Detroit Tigers in 2023.

The Detroit Tigers outfield is in an interesting spot. Few things have gone right for the Tigers this season, but one bright spot was Riley Greene. Greene locked up his spot in center field by outperforming expectations on defense and showing he can make plays despite his average speed. This, combined with his great approach and ability to hit the ball hard, makes him as close to a sure thing as the Tigers will have in 2023

Kerry Carpenter will also likely have an everyday spot in the Tigers outfield. He went on an absolute tear in the minor leagues, and much of that production continued at the MLB level. Some skeptics might point out his absurd splits for home and away games (-12 wRC+ at home and 260 wRC+ in road games), but I think that the talent is there, and those splits are just a function of the small sample size he’s had in the majors.

Congrats to Kerry Carpenter on big-league home run #1. It’s also his 31st of the year overall. pic.twitter.com/TctX5gzKyH

— Motor City Metrics (@mcmbaseballpod) August 16, 2022

The third spot is where things get a lot more contentious.

The first option many fans would think of to fill that spot is Akil Baddoo. His rise from a Rule 5 Draft pick to Tigers stardom in 2021 makes for a great story, but there are a lot of holes you can poke in his ‘21 campaign. For example, his bat wasn’t as excellent as many people make it out to be. A 110 wRC+ is good, but it isn’t anything warranting stardom, which is a massive red flag when you consider that Baddoo is a below average outfielder. He is credited with 5 Defensive Runs Saved this year, but he was -2 last year, and Statcast has him with -1 Outs Above Average for the season.

Ideally a below-average fielder would have an excellent bat, but not only is his 2021 not good enough to justify his defense, but his massive regression in 2022 (62 wRC+ and a nearly .100 point decrease in wOBA) are not good signs. Baddoo’s entire upside hinges on a season where he showed nothing more than the ability to be a bench bat and fourth outfielder.

A potential Meadows brothers outfield?

Austin Meadows is another guy who most fans would be happy to see start in the Tigers’ outfield every day. Just looking at that 2019 season makes people froth at the mouth with the thought of a Tiger producing a 144 wRC+.

Other than that though, most of his seasons have been lackluster. He has bad splits against left-handed pitchers, which isn’t the biggest issue, but it does threaten to make him a platoon player. He’s also a below-average defender in an outfield full of defensive mediocrity, which isn’t ideal. Add the injury problems, and he’s not exactly the likeliest candidate to take this spot.

There’s a strange tendency for most sports fans to get overly attached to utility and bench players. Victor Reyes in my mind is the perfect poster boy for that. His bat tops out at average at best, and he’s not a special defender by any stretch of the imagination. Yet many fans clamor to see him in the lineup.

One can argue this is because the Tigers are full of utility players in full time roles, but the point still stands. He isn’t someone the Tigers want to give an everyday spot to, though he makes for a great fourth outfielder.

One of the most intriguing names who could fill out this outfield is Parker Meadows. The younger Meadows has had a breakout season in Erie thanks to swing adjustments, and he has the tools to be an above average hitter as well as an above average center fielder, potentially usurping Riley Greene’s spot in Comerica.

There’s no guarantee Meadows makes the team out of spring training, and he will likely start 2023 in Toledo. But there is no doubt in my mind he will get a shot in the Tigers’ outfield at some point next season.

Parker Meadows with a BOMB off Quinn Priester. Smash #ProspectOne pic.twitter.com/z8hi1uQuK6

— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 3, 2022

Other candidates worth mentioning

– Daz Cameron (terrible statistically in the bigs, but has the tools to be a quality defender and has good batted ball data)

– Willi Castro (below average bat and below average defense with a strong arm)

Despite none of these candidates inspiring much confidence, having six outfielders competing for a single spot is a good problem for any team to have. If have two above-average MLB players in the outfield, the third spot doesn’t matter nearly as much. Who the Tigers front office chooses to get rid of, and who they choose to play, will tell us plenty about their philosophy and the type of decision-making we will see under Scott Harris.