Detroit Tigers prospect Reese Olson makes his MLB debut tonight

Reese Olson probably didn’t want it like this.

No one would ever turn down a chance to make his MLB debut, of course, but the circumstances aren’t ideal. The Detroit Tigers have 12 players on the Injured List. Eight of them are pitchers, including the latest casualty, staff ace Eduardo Rodriguez. So all Olson has to do is fill in for one of the better pitchers in the American League.

The good news is Olson has been pitching much better for Toledo as of late. The bad news is he still owns a 6.38 ERA on the season, and he’s making his debut in front of a hostile White Sox crowd. So Tigers fans probably shouldn’t expect a great outing from Olson, but let’s dig a littler deeper anyway.

Reese Olson’s Background

The Brewers originally drafted Reese Olson out of high school in the 13th round back in 2018. He slowly made his way up to High-A Wisconsin in 2021, and then the Tigers acquired him at the trade deadline for Daniel Norris. He made two scoreless starts for West Michigan (Rogelio and I were there) before moving up to Double-A Erie for his final five outings of the season.

Olson returned to Erie last year, where he pitched extremely well at times. He set the single-season strikeout record for the SeaWolves, and he even pitched an immaculate inning in front of us. But he also finished the year with a 4.14 ERA thanks to some issues with home runs and pitching with runners on base.

He got off to a terrible start in Triple-A this year, posting an ugly 11.20 ERA over five starts in April. But he was much better in May, and he has given up just two runs over his last three starts (14.1 IP), while striking out 22.

Reese Olson’s Stuff

On the surface, Reese Olson’s stuff looks very good. He offers a true five-pitch mix, beginning with a four-seam fastball and a sinker that both sit around 95 mph and touch as high as 97. As you might expect, his four-seamer gets significantly more swings-and misses than his sinker (26.7% to 14.6%).

He backs up his heat with three secondary offerings that all flash at least above-average. Olson’s changeup is his best pitch, sitting around 88 mph with plus dive and run. He’s comfortable throwing it to batters from either side of the plate, and he’ll throw it two or three times in a row without fear. So far this year it has generated a whiff rate of almost 45%.

His slider is his next best pitch, sitting comfortably in the 84-86 mph range. It’s a true slider, as opposed to a cutter or sweeper, spinning at nearly 3,000 RPM and averaging 40 inches of vertical break and 8 inches of horizontal break. His whiff rate with the slide piece this year is just below his changeup at 42%.

He finishes his arsenal with a 2,800-rpm curveball that sits around 80 mph and averages nearly 60 inches of vertical break. It’s his least used pitch, but it’s more than a strike stealer, generating a whiff rate above 30%.

The Trouble With Reese Olson

So what gives? How does a guy with that stuff own a career 4.48 ERA in pro ball and rank just 16th on our top 25 list? There are three main issues here: command, fastball shape, and pitching from the stretch.

Reese Olson’s delivery features a fair amount of effort. He’s a smaller guy, and it take a lot of work to generate mid-90s velocity. That effort really hampers Olson’s ability to spot the baseball on the corners consistently. As a result, he leaves far too many pitches over the heart of the plate. That would be less of a problem if his fastball weren’t pedestrian in terms of spin and shape. But, unfortunately it is pretty average in those categories, and pro hitters tend to crush average pitches if they aren’t located perfectly.

The final issue with Olson is his numbers with men on base. Olson’s left-on-base percentage in the upper minors is about 65%, which would rank near the bottom of all MLB pitchers. And that is particularly odd given his high strikeout rates over the same time period. But for whatever reason Olson’s command takes an even bigger step back when he’s pitching from the stretch, and that leads to a lot of trouble.

The Verdict

MLB debuts are always cool, and we’re excited to see Reese Olson take on the best hitters in the world. Unfortunately, we expect this one to be pretty ugly. We’ll guess: 3.2 IP 5H 5ER 3BB 3K 2HR.

He’ll probably get more chances to start for the Tigers, though, and there’s enough here to hold out hope for him as a rotation piece. Ultimately we expect him to move to the bullpen, where he could develop into a valuable Alex Lange-style reliever who pitches backward.