Is it time to be concerned about Izaac Pacheco’s slow start?

Izaac Pacheco was a second-round pick by the Tigers three years ago, in 2021. He came into the organization with high hopes due to his tantalizing power and stature as a corner infielder. He’s well capable of hitting home runs where only the best of the best power hitters hit them.

Our own Rogelio Castillo even went as far to say, 70-grade raw power, so it is there. The problem is… Well, simply put, he hasn’t hit a lot of home runs in his time in the organization, or hit the ball much at all, to begin with. 

The negatives

The first thing to look at is his strikeouts. They’ve been his main Achilles heel since he’s been in the organization, and he’s not done much to improve it yet. In 2023, he finished out the season with a 31.5 K%, meaning he struck out in 31.5% of his plate appearances, and so far in 2024, a 42.7 K% (as of May 6).

While it may be a much smaller sample size in a long season to go, he’s regressed to this point in that department since 2022 (34.4% in 2021, 21.8% in 2022). For reference, the league average K% for hitters in the MLB for 2023 was 22.7 (according to Baseball Reference). He was well below average last season, and is trending the same way so far this season.

In an organization like the Tigers, headed by Scott Harris and company, it’s easy to see a path in which he starts to feel the heat about his strikeouts with an emphasis on controlling the strike zone. He did hold a 9.2 BB% in 2023, 10.6% in 2022 and 14.4% in 2021, all of which would have been above the 2023 MLB league average of 8.6% (according to Baseball Reference). But problematically, early into 2024, he’s seen another significant dip so far, sitting at just a 4.2 BB%. 

So far he’s hitting .187 in 2024 as well, which is a concern, but he’s never hit above .254 as a professional. That isn’t the aspect of his game that’s something to be too concerned about, as long as he’s hitting for consistent power.

Which brings up the second observation; he hasn’t hit for power consistently yet, either. He has just one home run so far in 2024 (91 ABs), 12 in 2023 (455 ABs), 11 in 2022 (390 ABs) and one in 2021 (106 ABs). It’s not expected for a young prospect to immediately tap into their power, and that’s something I understand, but it’s time to start having a bit of a concern, if there hasn’t been some already. 

As a second-round pick out of high school, expectations are likely going to be high, especially with the prodigious power Pacheco possesses, but it is time to think about what Pacheco can do to curb this slow start to 2024, and a rather slow start to his career in general. 

The positives on Pacheco

There are still positives about Pacheco. One being the fact that despite my concern, he is only 21 years old, although he has yet to reach above High-A West Michigan, he’s not too far off track.

Another positive is the fact that he’s a pretty solid defender at third base, He moves fairly well and has good hands. Even more positively, he’s still playing third base. Many thought he may outgrow the position by now, myself included, due to his stature at this point in his career.

He also refined his approach and swing quite a bit during his best season in 2022, shortening his swing, something that’s pretty rare for a guy of his size and with his power, often the long swing is left to keep power. Pacheco is still sporting that short swing based upon what I’ve seen from him this year, but he still has tape-measure home run power. Maybe lengthening his swing can generate more power production, but strikeouts are too much of an issue to consider that at this point. 

Lastly, and more importantly, maybe even obviously, is the jaw-dropping power. Pacheco can hit the ball extremely hard, and he can also hit it a long, long way. That type of raw power at his age is too much to give up on, and frankly, is the main reason I’m not overly concerned by his slow start to 2024, because sometimes, raw power and the way to harness it can be a lengthy, patient battle. 

Pacheco’s game has many drawbacks, notably worsened this year. Despite his potential for 30-plus home runs, concerns linger due to the organization’s infield depth. However, this depth might benefit him. While losing at-bats is detrimental, facing more professional pitching could prove valuable. With over 1,000 career at-bats but little production, it remains to be seen how this year might advance his position within the organization.

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