Detroit Tigers Prospect Audit: Reese Olson

Let’s Look at What We Got Wrong About Reese Olson

Yesterday Reese Olson threw six shutout innings for the Detroit Tigers. That sentence doesn’t seem particularly noteworthy, because it’s the sort of thing Reese Olson would do. He has now gone at least six scoreless innings six times in his young career.

But two years ago we would have been pretty shocked. When we relaunched the site before the 2023 season we had Reese Olson ranked 15th on our top 25 Detroit Tigers prospects list. On the last prospect list we made before he reached the majors, Olson had dropped to the 16th best prospect in the system.

At Tigers Minor League Report we like to think we provide the best, most thorough coverage of Detroit’s farm system. But we truly pride ourselves on accountability, and admitting when we are wrong. So, in that spirit, let’s figure out why we were so wrong about Reese Olson.

Out History With Reese Olson

We weren’t lacking for information on Reese Olson. Rogelio and I made it a point to see his first outing in Detroit’s system, traveling to Comstock Park to watch Olson and the West Michigan Whitecaps. It was August 6th, 2021, and Olson was very good, throwing six scoreless innings (sound familiar?), allowing just two hits and one walk, while striking out four.

His stuff was solid that day, but not spectacular. His fastball touched 95 MPH a few times in the first inning but generally sat 92-94 for the rest of the outing. He broke off some nice sliders, and his changeup looked terrific. His catapult delivery was a little funky, but in general we thought he was too good for the Midwest League. And the Tigers did, too, sending him to Double-A after one more start with the Whitecaps.

The next time we saw Olson in person was May 20th, 2022 in Erie, Pennsylvania. We arrived just in time to see him throw an immaculate inning, and we watched as he carved up the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, striking out a career-high 11 batters in 4.2 innings. His stuff was great, but we were a little concerned about the lack of pitch efficiency. Side note: that game also featured Kerry Carpenter hitting two home runs AND two doubles.

Olson would go on to set single-season strikeout record for Erie in 2022, with 168 Ks in 119.2 innings. His swing-and-miss stuff was there, but he also posted an underwhelming 4.14 ERA. We were a little worried that he found the middle of the plate too often.

And then things got ugly in Toledo. Olson gave up 17 earned runs in his first 9.2 innings with the Mud Hens, and we were afraid our worst fears had been realized. He was much better over his next six outings, but we were still skeptical. We wrote about it a little more when he was called up to Detroit.

There are three main issues here: command, fastball shape, and pitching from the stretch…it takes a lot of work to generate mid-90s velocity. That effort really hampers Olson’s ability to spot the baseball on the corners consistently…That would be less of a problem if his fastball weren’t pedestrian in terms of spin and shape. But, unfortunately it is pretty average in those categories…The final issue with Olson is his numbers with men on base. Olson’s left-on-base percentage in the upper minors is about 65%, which would rank near the bottom of all MLB pitchers…for whatever reason Olson’s command takes an even bigger step back when he’s pitching from the stretch, and that leads to a lot of trouble.

So, about all that…

Just How Good is Reese Olson?

He’s pretty dang good. If that full-throated endorsement isn’t strong enough for you, I suppose we could look at some numbers, too. Olson has now pitched in 52 career games, including 49 starts and 3 relief appearances, and he owns a 3.60 career ERA. Two of those three relief outings we de facto starts, each lasting five innings.

So let’s fudge it a bit and call it 51 career starts. Where does Olson rank among Detroit Tigers pitchers since 1947 through their first 51 career starts?

These tables go to 11.

That’s some awfully good company. Olson ranks 8th in ERA through his first 51 starts, and those 255 strikeouts rank 4th, behind Lolich, McLain, and Tarik Skubal (279). Skubal didn’t make the list because his ERA through 51 starts was 4.32.

It’s still hard to believe the Detroit Tigers landed Olson for a few months of Daniel Norris. From a WAR perspective, it’s not the biggest trade heist ever for the Tigers, but it’s moving up the list. Olson currently sits at 3.8 career bWAR and 5.1 career fWAR. But Daniel Norris put up -0.4 WAR with Milwaukee, and that was it.

The Tigers have control of Olson for four more years after the 2025 season. ZiPS has him projected for roughly 8 more WAR in that time. So we’re looking at the potential for a 12-13 WAR win of that trade. And it still feels like Olson has room to improve over the next few seasons.

The Tigers seem to have themselves a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation arm. And we ranked him behind Wilmer Flores, Joey Wentz, and Cristian Santana. Sorry about that.

What We Can Learn?

I still think our concerns about Olson were valid, and it’s remarkable how much his command has improved at the MLB level. So takeaway number one is that old scouting yarn:

Development Doesn’t End in the Minors

And takeaway number two:

Trust the Stuff

Olson’s changeup and slider have always been very good pitches, and his curve is pretty good, too. Throwing your best pitches more often seems like a good idea, and that is what Olson has done. Let’s look at one last table. This one is Olson’s pitch usage in Triple-A and his MLB career so far.

The Tigers immediately had Olson increase his sinker and slider usage. And while the changeup usage dipped initially, he has thrown it more each season. The big flip this year has been switching his primary fastball shape from four-seamer to sinker. There are plenty of fun ways to go through Olson’s data, and I’m sure Jerry will soon (if he wants).

We will try to do better in the future. And the next time the Tigers have a pitcher with multiple plus secondary offerings we won’t be so quick to banish him to the bullpen.

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