So the Tigers are out of the playoffs, officially. The team sits nearly 15 games below their expected win/loss record, specifically sitting 73-83 with an expected win loss of 85-71. At 85-71, the Tigers would have a 4 game lead in the AL Central, and be the 2nd seed in the AL overall, instead they are eliminated and fighting for 3rd in the division. On paper, the Tigers are basically a playoff team, they have a +68 run differential, 4th best in the AL, have scored 712 runs (3rd in the AL), and allowed 629 runs (4th in the AL). Now that said, as a team defensively they are bottom 10th overall, but 7th in team DRS. Their bullpen has been the issue, that’s without a doubt, but the real statement comes with how stark it has been as a bullpen.
The unit ranks 10th in the MLB for bullpen ERA (3.84), 6th in BABIP (.276) 5th in hard contact rate allowed (31.9%), , while also ranking 12th in xERA (3.80). That’s about where the good stops though, despite ranking 9th in left on base rate, they rank 27th in high leverage LOB. Additionally, they rank 18th in FIP (4.19), 12th in xFIP (4.10), 22nd in WAR (1.9), 19th in K rate (22%), 17th in BB rate (9.8%), 18th in K-BB% (12.4%), 14th in BAA (.235), 25th in HR/FB (12.4%), the 2nd most blown saves in the MLB, & the most blown leads after the 7th inning. A lot could be attributed as well to the bullpen allowing the most ground balls (47.5%) yet the team fielding the 3rd worst ground ball defense in baseball, and the 4th worst when in high leverage. Looking at the bullpen, it’s clear some things aren’t working, and yet again changes will need to happen. The unit is walking less than last year, and striking out more, though they’ve also become one of the worst units in high leverage situations where they rank bottom 5-8 in basically every metric. Additionally, the team has had their fair share of injuries in the pen, which is another aspect, but they’ve also simply struggled to miss bats when needed and their consistent high HR rates allowed from the pen have attributed greatly to the struggles.
Pending Free Agents & Options
Drew Anderson
The biggest of their bullpen arms, comes with Drew Anderson, who likely could be counted in the starting pitcher marks but there’s a shot he’d be back in the bullpen for 2027. Anderson’s command has struggled this year with a 44% zone-strike rate which is the 10th percentile in MLB, with 10.1% BB rate as well. However, he’s also limited hard contact, induced 49% ground balls, has drawn a 27% whiff rate, 35% chase rate, and 25% K rate all great numbers. Anderson could be a reliever in 2026, but also likely has a chance to be a starter. It’s a 10 million club option for the Tigers, and that would make perfect sense for Detroit.
Kenley Jansen
Jansen has a 12 million club option, with a 2 million buyout if the Tigers don’t select his option. Jansen who turns 39 at the end of this month, has been rather adequate this season. His stuff has played well ranking in the 99th percentile this season, while also throwing 50% zone strikes, limiting contact in the zone, and also generating a 28% strikeout rate. He’s struggled heavily with a 13% BB rate, and only a 25% ground ball rate both of which have attributed to his struggles at times that involve most of the Tigers blown leads late in games. Jansen’s strike throwing has decreased, his BB rate increased, but he’s also limited overall hard contact though he’s allowed more home runs. 12 million is a steep price for a guy who’s been as inconsistent as Jansen, though I can see a roughly 25% chance the Tigers select his option.
Tyler Kinley
Kinley, 35, was released this season by the Braves after a 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 24% strikeout rate, 9.4% BB rate, and overall solid contact numbers allowed (81% contact rate, 33% hard hit rate) but he’s struggled in his command ranking middle of the round. With the Tigers Kinley has seen his strikeout rate drop to 11.4%, his walk rate increase to 13.6%, and also somehow a 3 inch loss in his extension. His chase rates decreased, contact rates increased, and he’s also struggled to throw strikes as well seeing his zone strike rate drop by about 3% with the Tigers. Kinley has allowed more groundballs and limited the hard contact but it’s tough when he is not throwing strikes. Kinley likely is a low cost reliever option, and while he’s seen dips in key areas, the Tigers could use veteran bullpen depth which would make sense for Kinley going forward, but in no world can he break camp with the team.
Kyle Finnegan *
Finnegan is not a free agent, nor does he have an option, with the Tigers on the hook for 9.5 million in 2027. Finnegan has ranked in the 25th percentile or lower this season in wOBA (.368), K rate (17.3%), BB rate (12.5%), chase rate (28%), strike rate (62.1%), hard hit rate (45%), barrel rate (9%), and exit velocity (89 mph). He’s been inconsistent at throwing strikes, seen his sinker drop in terms of effectiveness, and despite posting a sub 3 ERA for 2/3 of the season, has not been good overall. Finnegan going forward isn’t a leverage arm anymore, till he proves he can be at least, which makes it difficult to retain him in the future. Finnegan is likely to return to Detroit in 2027, largely because of his price tag, but his leash will be short, and he’ll likely be a guy that works exclusively in low leverage where if he struggles he’s gone, and if he succeeds he may earn back high leverage opportunities.
Arbitration Eligible
Will Vest
People want to move on from Vest, and that’s not a horrible take to have when you look at his numbers which are headlined by a 6.08 ERA, 1.43 FIP, and 8.6% BB rate in 26.2 IP. However, Vest did have a 3.96 xERA, 3.4 FIP, 33.5% chase rate, 4% barrel rate, and 28% whiff rate. He allowed a .362 AVG on his Fastball (.243 xBAA) & .250 on the slider (.221 xBAA). Vest also allowed a 79.5% zone contact rate (88th percentile), 62.3% ground ball rate (100th percentile), and showed plus stuff. The 31 year old did undergo hip and elbow surgery, and his biggest issue in 2026 came with an inability to get strikes in the zone, but Vest is still a good pitcher and should be a player in the 2027 Tigers bullpen.
Tyler Holton
Holton has a 2.78 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 3.98 FIP, 3.71 xERA, and .248 xBAA this season. He’s been an effective pitcher overall, doing what the lefty does best. Holton limits walks, limits hard contact, and gets ground balls. His strikeout rate sits at just 18.5% and he’s seen that drop the last four seasons each year, though he’s consistently done well to increase the ground balls, decrease the hard contact, but I am a bit worried about his chase rate falling from 31% in 2025, 33% in 2024, to just 27% in 2026. AJ Hinch likes Holton, he isn’t a high leverage reliever (like he was in 2024), but Holton serves a role as a guy to get ground balls when necessary, and provides Detroit flexibility with high inning counts. Holton is a good reliever, throwing 6 strong pitches, but the Tigers need to shift his responsibilities.
Beau Brieske
I expect Brieske back in 2027, likely not in the Tigers pen, but I’d assume in the minors as depth though he’ll have a chance to break camp in the bullpen. Since September 1, Brieske has a a 20% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, and he’s done well throwing strikes in the zone. Overall, he’s allowed hard contact, seen his fastball velocity dip a bit, and he’s also not drawing as much swing and miss as his profile suggests. There’s a shot that Brieske is DFA’d this off-season to make room on the 40 man roster, but he can certainly stick around at just 28.
Jacob Waugespack
Waguespack has a 2.47 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 3.02 xERA but he’s also added a 4.77 FIP. Waguespack is striking out just 18% of batters with a 10% BB rate, which is a concern, however he’s limited his hard contact rates with a 4.2% barrel rate allowed, 28% hard hit rate, and 82.9 average exit velo all three in the 94th percentile or higher. Waguespack has limited contact rates, he’s pounded the zone well, but he’s also not generating chase which can increase his walk rates. Waguespack has a diverse arm angle, adequate stuff, and gets extension which also getting 50% groundballs. He’ll be a very cheap bullpen arm to return in 2027, and while he’s not a high leverage option (though he’s been forced into that role for 2026) he shows an ability to work effectively in low leverage.
Non-Arb 2026 Pen Arms
Drew Sommers
Sommers will be on the Tigers 2027 bullpen, he’s tossed a 3.332 ERA in 38 innings, 1.12 WHIP, and an elite 2.14 xERA. Sommers ranks 95th percentile or higher in xWOBA (.228), K rate (32.6%), chase rate (36.2%), strike rate (68.2%), zone contact allowed (77.3%), extension (7.4 feet), barrel rate (3.5%), hard hit rate (31%), average exit velo (82.5 mph), and ground ball rate (64%). Sommers stuff isn’t overpowering, but he throws from a weird arm angle, and at 7.3 feet of extension his 94-95 fastball plays up to 98-100 with a ton of rise and run, which allows him to generate a near 60% whiff rate on the pitch alone. Sommers has seen his struggles to locate this season, but he’s now at a 51% zone strike rate which is 86th percentile in the MLB, and has risen nearly 15% over the last 2 months. Sommers shows the ability to be a lockdown reliever, and his high leverage experience hasn’t been great, but there’s potential in his arm. The 26 year old will no doubt be someone Detroit looks upon for 2027, and has the makings of a future high leverage arm.
Brant Hurter
Hurter went down with a lumbar injury, and it’s effected him big time. He’s seen his pitches break less, spin less, and his velocity dip as well upon his return. On the season, Hurter is not generating much swing and miss, as usual, but he’s down nearly 20%. Hurter is still limiting his hard contact, and he’s generating a 60% ground ball rate as well. Hurter’s lack of swing and miss, now paired with lower velocity, does make him a tough evaluation for 2027, but there’s some hope he can get back to his 2024-2025 self and help the Tigers in a mid relief option. I’m hoping that Hurter can get his form, stuff, and 1-2 mph of velocity back this off-season with more rehab following the injury. The 6’6, 260 lefty has a role with the Tigers in 2026, but what exactly that role is depends on this off-season, and their additions.
Emmanuel De Jesus (Non 40 Man)
Yilber Diaz
Diaz has the stuff to be a reliever for the Tigers in 2027, he’s featuring a 97.7 fastball that features 17 inches of rise, 11 inches of run to pair with a slider that’s featuring barely any horizontal break but does feature 5.2 inches of rise. Diaz has the arm to be a high voltage reliever, but he struggles heavily with command, and the Tigers have been working on that since claiming him earlier this season off waivers from Arizona. I don’t know if Diaz survives the 40 man roster churn this off-season, but if he improves the command, the fastball and slider combo play, while Detroit has also started to develop a cutter & change to help in his potential pitch mixes.
Starters to Relievers?
Ty Madden
Madden tossed 47 innings for the Tigers last year across 20 games posting a 3.26 ERA, 1.0 WHIP, and 3.55 FIP. Madden also generated a .260 xWOBA, 24.3% K rate, and limited opponent hard contact with a 3.9% barrel rate and 29.9% hard hit rate. Madden has the profile of a pen arm that can develop his strikeouts but there’s other clear concerns. He posted just a 42.1% zone strike rate (2nd percentile), a 63% strike rate, and a 31.6% chase rate with a 25% whiff rate. Madden did limit walks, but he’s not generating enough command in the zone to indicate that he can be more than a mid relief option. Madden also has the ability to be a swing man, which will likely be his role working in mid leverage and a spot start at times. His arsenal is adequate featuring a 93.5 FB that gets good break and does see chase but no whiff. His best pitches are the cutter & slider which play off each other extremely well including a .199 wOBA & 41% whiff rate vs the cutter.
Reese Olson
Olson missed all of 2026 with a shoulder injury, and he’ll be healthy to start the 2027 season. Prior to his injury, Olson accumulated a 3.15 ERA in 68.2 IP, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.5 FIP in 2025. The 27 year old didn’t command the zone well before injury with a 43.7% zone strike rate, 61.2% strike rate, and he allowed a 46.6% hard hit rate. On the other hand, Olson had a 30% whiff rate and a 30.8% chase rate. Command has been an issue in Olson’s past, largely with his fastball, but he’s got the arsenal to be a quality 5th starter or a potential high leverage arm with time. Olson’s sinker has good velocity, plays well with break and it works off his changeup and slider extremely well with the last two pitches generating north of a 40% whiff rate over 2024 & 2025. Olson may continue in the rotation for Detroit in 2027, but he could also take a Drew Anderson route, the stuff & profile is good, how the Tigers use Olson going forward is the question.
Andrew Sears
I’d expect Sears to start back in AAA for the 2027 season, the 23 year old posted a -0.9 WAR across 19 innings with a 7.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 5.47 FIP, 16% K rate, and a 8.7% BB rate. Sears didn’t allow an overt amount of hard contact with a 34% hard hit rate and a 5.9% barrel rate, but he only saw a 60.7% strike rate (44% zone) and he didn’t generate a ton of swing and miss either with a 27% whiff and 29.4% chase. Sears saw his ups but also plenty of downs, the arsenal is able to play at the MLB level with his 94 mph fastball, and a strong changeup. If Sears can’t locate consistently then his stuff doesn’t matter, and that will be the biggest thing in 2027. Sears may continue as a starter for the Tigers, though his velocity was up when in relief appearances, with Sears having a possible future as a mid leverage arm.
Mixed Bag
Brenan Hanifee
I don’t expect Hanifee to be an internal bullpen option, he’s tossed 115 innings for the Tigers but 2026 was not favorable to him. Hanifee posted a 6.34 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 5.06 ERA in 21 1/3 innings generating just a 10.6% K rate but a 7.4% BB rate. Hanifee has a simple profile, induce ground balls & pound the zone. He’s seen a ground ball rate north of 55% each of the last three seasons, a walk rate under 10%, and a zone strike rate over 55%. Hanifee is the typical pitch to contact pitcher, but his arsenal is not there despite a 95 sinker and 90 changeup that both get decent movement. Hanifee likely sticks on the 40 man roster, but he’s likely insurance and a AAA depth arm.
Jackson Wolf (Non 40 Man)
The Tigers acquired Wolf from the Padres, and many viewed the former 4th rounder as a throw in. The 27 year old is an interesting arm, after coming over to the Tigers he tossed 33 1/3 innings for a 1.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and saw drastic jumps in his K rate along with his ability to reduce hard contact. Wolf’s arsenal plays, he has no high velocity pitches, but he gets 7.3 feet of extension and features a ton of movement on his slider/sweeper that have developed north of 40% whiff rates with the MudHens. Wolf headlines with three fastballs (4FB, Cutter, Sinker) that each play well, are commanded consistently, and get ground balls. Wolf is a funky pitcher, he’s got a long windup, which will limit him in controling the ground game especially with lower velocity, but he can likely be a low to mid leverage arm for the Tigers during the 2027 season. He’ll need to be added to the 40 man roster, which I think the Tigers will do after his strong outings in Toledo where Detroit moved him on the mound & dropped his CB from the arsenal while increasing the changeup and cutter usage.
Sawyer Gipson-Long
Tommy John was not nice to Gipson-Long, the 28 year old has tossed 109.2 IP this season with a 1.51 WHIP, 5.50 ERA, and a .326 xWOBA. Gipson-Long has remained with an ability to get strikeouts, with a 29% whiff rate, 31% chase rate, and 22% K rate but he’s also throwing an 11% walk rate, and throwing just 44% of his pitches in the zone. Gipson-Long has allowed hard contact at AAA this season, and he’s been a starter the whole way, though a change to the bullpen could be valuable for his future. Gipson-Long still has a decent pitch mix, getting 7.4 feet of extension, and his fastball has been hit hard but the slider/change/sinker have been effective. Gipson-Long will likely be DFA’d this off-season to free a spot, but I can see Detroit keeping him in the organization as either AAA starter depth, or a move to the pen to try and maximize his profile as a mid level/low leverage reliever.
Bailey Horn
Horn missed all of 2026 with an injury, and while the power lefty features some high swing and miss potential, he’s likely a DFA candidate this off-season to free a spot and could return on an MiLB deal this off-season.
Jake Miller
Miller has tossed 23 innings this season across FCL to AA, with a 0.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 24.5% K rate with a 8.2% BB rate. Miller gets strikes, though he struggles to locate with a 44% zone strike rate this season at AA, though he’s seen a 39% chase rate. Additionally, Miller doesn’t feature the profile to get ground balls, and he’s allowing a lot of contact. Miller has a compact build, doesn’t get extension, and his stuff isn’t overly impressive. The arsenal is led by a 90-92 fastball that gets 16 inches of rise, a slider with 2 inches drop, and a changeup with 14 inches of armside movement. The profile limits hard contact, but it’s not build for sustained MLB success in terms of swing and miss. Miller was added to the 40 man roster this season amid some talks he was getting the chance to go overseas, and there’s a chance that Detroit decides to DFA him this off-season, as the 25 year old, likely doesn’t have the profile to help in 2027.
Tyler Mattison (Non 40 Man)
Mattison looked to be one of the Tigers best developmental bullpen arms up till he missed 2024 with injury. Mattison lost velocity due to Tommy John, and he’s not been the same since. Prior to 2024, Mattison posted a 2.41 ERA with 92 K and 28 BB in 59.2 IP. He followed that up in 2025 with 44 strikeouts, 31 walks, a 4.38 ERA, and 1.56 WHIP in just 39 innings. This season, Mattison has posted a 3.81 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and tossed 54.1 IP at AAA. His BB rate is 17.5%, he features a 26.4% K rate, and he’s limited contact but he’s also only drawing a 26% chase rate, and throwing just 43% of his pitches in the zone. Mattison’s stuff is not the same post TJ, and overall he hasn’t been able to command the ball as well, nor limit hard contact. 2 years ago, I’d say he’s a potential closer for Detroit, now he’s likely outside looking in.
Tanner Kohlhepp (Non 40 Man)
I have some confidence that Kohlhepp is either selected to the 40 man to avoid the rule 5 draft, or he’s taken from the organization. The 2021 5th rounder will turn 28 next May and he’s spent all of 2026 in AA with a 3.85 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 29% K rate, 5.5% walk rate, and basically good numbers across the board. He’s generating a 37% chase rate, 68% strike rate, 50% zone strike rate, 52% groundball rate, and 30% whiff rate. Kohlhepp has limited his hard contact allowed, though there’s been massive inconsistencies as well.
The arsenal is there, headlined by a 94-96 sinker that with 6.2 feet of extension can play to 95-97. Additionally, he’s got a slider that doesn’t break much but does enough to keep hitters off base, and a changeup that’s among the best of his pitches featuring nearly 20 inches of horizontal break. A year after losing RJ Petit, Dylan Smith, and Micah Ashman all in 5 months, I hope Detroit decides to keep it’s intriguing bullpen options in house.
Colin Arthur 
Rogelio Castillo