We are just two days away from the 2025 MLB Draft. How could things play out for the Detroit Tigers?
What would you do with $11,540,340?
If your answer isn’t “retire”, I can’t relate.
If you’re the Detroit Tigers, however, that’s the amount you have to spend on your 2025 MLB Draft class.
Technically, Detroit’s bonus pool is just shy of $11 million, but teams are able to spend up to 5% over that amount without being penalized, which leaves the Tigers with just over $11.5 million to spend.
After years of picking towards the top of the draft, the Tigers find themselves with the 24th pick in the first round of the 2025 draft, after a successful 2024 season. But luckily for Detroit, they also “earned” a Competitive Balance Round A selection in the ’25 draft, which boosts their bonus pool to 17th overall. (They also had Competitive Balance picks in 2023 and 2024.)
Under Scott Harris, Rob Metzler, Mark Conner and crew, the Tigers have shown that they’re not afraid to get creative with their bonus pool. Detroit has also earned high marks for their drafts the past two seasons, and while it’s not a large sample size to go off of, there are some trends that have emerged when it comes to how the Tigers operate in the draft. Here are a few:
- Detroit likes to use high round selections on high schoolers. In 2023, the Tigers used four of their first five picks on high schoolers, and in 2024, their top three picks were high schoolers. Detroit has gone over slot value (signed players for higher than the slot value of their pick) seven times in the first 10 rounds (plus Competitive Balance picks) covering the 2023-2024 drafts, and each time it was on a high school player.
- In the top 10 rounds (plus Competitive Balance picks) the past two years, the Tigers have drafted 13 college players; and signed them all for bonuses under their draft slot values.
- The past two years, the Tigers have spent on average 89% of their total bonus pool on their first six picks (rounds 1-5 plus Competitive Balance Round picks); which would give them around $10.2 million for their top six picks this year if the trend holds.
With those three trends in mind, let’s get out our pocket protectors, and see how the Tigers may move forward in the 2025 MLB Draft, focusing on the top six picks (rounds 1-5 plus the Competitive Balance selection).
Scenario #1: Go Big With Pick #1
Back in 2023, the Tigers were able to select Kevin McGonigle (ever heard of him?) with their Competitive Balance Round A selection, which was the 37th overall pick. McGonigle was generally ranked higher than 37th by public evaluators, so how were the Tigers able to do this?
We can’t know for sure, but one scenario was that the Tigers told him they’d give him almost $3,000,000 to sign, which set his price. So if and when other teams called him during the draft, that was McGonigle’s price tag, and he had a college commitment (and likely a promise from the Tigers) to fall back on if they didn’t match it.
The Tigers were able to draft and sign McGonigle to an over slot deal, and did the same with fellow high schoolers Paul Wilson, Carson Rucker and Jatnk Diaz in 2023, and with high schoolers Bryce Rainer, Ethan Schiefelbein and Zach Swanson in 2024.
That brings us to scenario #1 for the 2025 draft.
(In this look at how the Tigers may play the draft, we are going to assume that Detroit will again target high school players towards the top of the draft, while also targeting under slot college players, based on the past two years.)
While certainly unscientific, looking at aggregate rankings from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN’s big boards, in this draft, there are currently eight high schoolers with a composite ranking in the top 20. Five are consensus top 10 prospects, which likely prices them out of Detroit.
However, there’s a second group of three that fall between 13-18: Steele Hall (#13), Kayson Cunningham (#17) and Daniel Pierce (#18). If it was the NBA or NFL, most likely all of those players would be gone by the time the Tigers pick. But this isn’t the NBA or NFL, and there’s a way for the Tigers to get their paws on one of these three: by offering a huge signing bonus, like they did with Kevin McGonigle (and to a lesser extent, 2024 1st rounder Bryce Rainer).
To provide a baseline of what players in that range could command, in the 2025 draft, the 13th pick comes with a slot value of $5.5 million, and the 18th pick comes with a slot value of $4.6 million. (The Tigers 24th pick comes with a $3.7 million slot.)
Since both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline recently mocked Kayson Cunningham to Detroit, let’s use him as an example. He’s currently ranked right around #17 between MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN, and the slot value for pick #17 is $4.75 million. But what if Detroit is really high on him, and told him they’d offer $5.75 million? In that case, they may be able to “float” him down to pick #24, as Cunningham can always threaten other teams to not sign and go to college instead if his price tag isn’t met.
This scenario is perhaps the least likely, because other teams (with higher bonus pools) picking before Detroit are of course able to do the same thing. But the Tigers have a history of going significantly over slot for players they like, as McGonigle, Paul Wilson, Ethan Schiefelbein and Zach Swanson were all signed for over $500,000 more than their slot value. If Detroit is willing to go significantly over slot with their first pick (and save money elsewhere), there’s a world where they end up with a prospect ranked in the top 15-20, and still have close to $4-5 million to spend on their next five picks, based on past history.
Scenario #2: Go (Slightly Less Big) With Pick #1 and the Competitive Balance Pick
The 2023 draft was unique for Detroit, as they had the second highest bonus pool of all 30 MLB teams. This allowed for a lot of flexibility, and also allowed the Tigers to come out of the draft with two of the top prospects in all of baseball, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. They did this by signing Clark for $600,000 less than slot, and in turn signing McGonigle for $500,000 over slot.
The cost to sign Clark and McGonigle was $10.5 million, or 64% of their total 2023 bonus pool. What would that look like in 2025?
In 2025, 64% of the Tigers bonus pool is $7.4 million. Going back to slot values again, the 20th overall pick comes with a $4.3 million value and the 30th pick comes with a $3.1 million value, again providing a baseline for what players drafted in that range may cost.
We know the Tigers like their high schoolers, and based on the aggregate rankings, there are five high school players with rankings between 20-30: Gavin Fien (#22), Kruz Schoolcraft and Xavier Neyens (tied for #23), Josh Hammond (#27), and Slater de Brun (#29).
We mentioned that the Tigers 24th pick comes with a $3.7 million slot value, while their 34th pick comes with a $2.8 million slot. But if Detroit is willing to spend an extra $1 million or so on those two picks, there’s a decent chance they could get two of the five high schoolers ranked in the 20-30 range.
In this scenario, the Tigers would leave the draft with two prospects ranked in the back of the top 30, while having something like $2.5-3 million left for rounds 2-5.
Scenario #3: Go (Even Less) Big With Pick #1, Competitive Balance Pick and Pick #2
In comparing the 2023, 2024 and potential 2025 drafts for Detroit, 2024 may be more informative for 2025, simply based on bonus pools. While the Tigers had the 2nd highest pool in ‘23, in ‘24, they had the 13th highest pool; much closer to where they are in ’25 (17th highest).
In 2024, the Tigers drafted high schoolers Bryce Rainer, Owen Hall and Ethan Schiefelbein with their first three picks, for a total of $9.4 million, or 75% of their total bonus pool. (Along with that, in 2023, their three highest signing bonuses totaled $12.3 million, or 74% of their total bonus pool). Like we did in scenario two, let’s see what that could look like for Detroit, assuming they spend 75% of their pool on three players, which comes to around $8.7 million.
We’ve mentioned the bucket of five high school players ranked in the 20-30 range already, and along with that, there’s a second group of five ranked between 31-50: Sean Gamble (#36), Tate Southisene (#40), Quentin Young (#43), Aaron Watson (#47) and Jack Bauer (#50).
Just for reference, the 30th pick in the draft comes with a slot value of just under $3 million, while the 50th pick comes with a slot value of just over $1.8 million.
Let’s say the Tigers like one of the first group of five ranked 20-30 with their first overall pick, and let’s assume the Tigers are able to get one of those five at slot value, or $3.7 million. That would leave $5 million for their next two selections.
Without knowing for sure of course, there’s a non-zero chance that the asking prices for the five high schoolers ranked in the 31-50 range is somewhere around $3 million at the high end (based on slot values) and $2 million on the low end. Could Detroit get two of that group for $5 million? That seems possible.
The Tigers 2nd round selection isn’t until pick #62, which could throw a wrench into the plan; but this is where Detroit could promise a player a certain amount of money, to potentially float them down to their pick.
This scenario feels the most likely based on the last two years, and would allow the Tigers to leave the draft with one back-end top 30 prospect, and two other back-end top 50 prospects; while leaving $1.5 million or so for rounds 3-5.
Scenario #4: Go (Even Lesser) Big With the First Four Picks
We’ve been focusing on high school players so far, but in 2023, Detroit did buck a trend by drafting a college player in the first two rounds, named Max Anderson (who’s having a huge year at AA).
With a signing bonus of $1.4 million, Anderson was (and is to date) the only college player the Scott Harris-led Tigers have given over $1 million to. (In fact, no other college player has received even $750,000.)
In that ’23 draft, the Tigers gave $13.7 million to their first four picks, or 83% of their total bonus pool. In 2025, that 83% would equal just over $9.5 million. Let’s take a guess at what that could get Detroit.
We’ve mentioned that the Tigers slot value for their first round pick is $3.7 million. But let’s say that they want to go slightly under slot for $3.3 million or so, similar to how they went under slot for Max Clark in 2023.
Between Josh Hammond (ranked #27) and Slater de Brun (#29), there are two high schoolers ranked slightly lower than where the Tigers 1st round pick landed. The slot values for picks 27 and 29 are $3.4 million and $3.2 million. For $3.3 million, let’s make one of them a Tiger (de Brun has been mocked to Detroit previously).
That leaves around $6.2 million for their next three picks.
We mentioned the group of five high schoolers ranked between 36-50 previously, and also mentioned that their average asking price may be somewhere in the $3 million range at the high end down to $2 million at the low end. Let’s have some fun and make two of them Tigers at picks #34 and #64, for a total of $4.7 million; leaving $1.5 million for pick #4 at 98th overall.
As a reference point, the slot value for pick #60 is $1.5 million, while the slot value for pick #75 is just over $1 million; and it just so happens that there’s a big clump of 14 high school players ranked between 51-75 based on aggregating the rankings of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN. Let’s make one of those 14 a Tiger as well, with a signing bonus of $1.5 million.
In this scenario, the Tigers would leave the draft with one back-end top 30 prospect, two back-end top 50 prospects, and one back-end top 75 prospect, while still having around $700,000 for rounds 4-5.
Scenario #5: Play It Straight
Before moving to scenario #5, let’s do a quick recap.
In scenario #1, the Tigers would get a top 15-20 prospect, and still have around $4-5 million left for their next five picks. In scenario #2, Detroit would get two back-end top 30 prospects, and still have around $2.5-3 million left for their next four picks. In scenario #3, they’d get one back-end top 30 prospect, two other back-end top 50 prospects and have around $1.5 million left for their next three picks. And in scenario #4, Detroit would get one back-end top 30 prospect, two back-end top 50 prospects, and one back-end top 75 prospect, while having around $700,000 left for their next two picks.
This all sounds well and good, and the math checks out, I think. However, in practice, things don’t always work out according to plan.
Looking solely at MLB Pipeline’s rankings, here are the top four prospects the Tigers landed in the 2023 and 2024 drafts:
2023: Max Clark (#5), Kevin McGonigle (#33), Paul Wilson (#51) and Max Anderson (#91)
2024: Bryce Rainer (#10), Owen Hall (#69), Ethan Schiefelbein (#94) and Michael Massey (#104)
You’ll see that in 2023, the Tigers did land three top 50ish prospects according to MLB Pipeline, but in 2024, when their pool was closer to 2025, they were only able to land one top 50 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline.
Pre-draft rankings aren’t everything of course, and chances are, the Tigers had Hall and Schiefelbein in their own top 50 for example. But I put this in to set proper expectations (for myself included) that on paper, the Tigers may not do quite as well (based on public rankings) as I’ve listed in the scenarios above.
But that’s ok. The Tigers as mentioned have earned high marks for their first two drafts under Scott Harris, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue in 2025.
Of the four scenarios listed, scenario #3 still feels the most likely, based on the last two years. But if the Tigers choose, they could also play things relatively straight, and just draft the best player available at each selection, with the caveat that they’ll sign for slot value. However, in their top 11 picks of the last two drafts, the Tigers have signed players within 10% of their slot values just 18% of the time.
In other words, the Tigers like to get weird, and chances are, that will continue in 2025.
Bonus Scenario: Let’s Get Crazy
We’ve tried to keep things as realistic as possible so far, but we did mention that Detroit likes to get weird in the draft; so let’s take that to the extreme.
The last two years, as mentioned the Tigers have spent about 89% of their total bonus pools on their first six picks in each draft, which would equal $10.2 million for 2025. But let’s say they absolutely love two players ranked in the top 20, and are willing to spend that full $10.2 million on their top two picks.
Up in scenario #1, we mentioned a group of three high schoolers ranked between 13-18. The slot value for pick #13 in 2025 is $5.5 million, while the slot value for pick #18 in 2025 is $4.6 million. Combining the two equals $10.1 million.
Chances are, all three will be long gone by the time the Tigers pick at #24, and especially when the Tigers pick at #34. But if they’re able to MacGuyver (or McGonigle) them down to picks #24 and #34, would Detroit be willing to cut massively in rounds 2-5 to secure two top 20 prospects?
I’d say the odds are pretty close to zero on not only two of those players being available, but also the Tigers being willing to essentially punt on rounds 2-5. But is it possible? In an alternate universe, maybe.
There is one precedent of the Tigers doing something somewhat similar to this, on a way smaller scale. In the 2024 draft, Detroit selected Ethan Sloan with their 8th round pick, and signed him for just $27,500, despite the slot value of his pick being over $220,000. This helped enable them to select Zach Swanson in round 9, and sign him for $722,500, despite a slot value of $195,000.
The closest that any other team has come to doing this that the TMLR crew (specifically the excellent Chris Brown) could think of was the 2019 New York Mets. That year, the Mets spent nearly their entire draft pool on their first three picks, and signed their picks in rounds 4-10 for a total of $62,000 (two players signed for $1,000 each).
This scenario won’t happen, but the Sloan / Swanson pair is a good example of how creative the Tigers are willing to get with their bonus pool.
No matter how the draft plays out for the 2025 Detroit Tigers, chances are they’ll be adding significant talent to one of the best farm systems in baseball.
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Chris Brown 
Rogelio Castillo 
Jerry McKennan