Five things

Welcome to “Five Things We Liked From Last Week”, a weekly list of… five things we liked from last week:

 

1. Trade Deadline

It’s an exciting time in the baseball calendar.

Not only did the draft occur recently, but the trade deadline is right around the corner, which means contending teams need to get busy improving their rosters as the season hits the stretch run.

The Detroit Tigers, who still have one of the best records in baseball despite their recent cold stretch, are no exception.

One could argue that Detroit could use a starting pitcher, an impact bat and at least two back end relievers. They won’t get all of those, but most fans (and likely the Tigers themselves) would agree that at minimum, the bullpen needs a boost.

Since June 1st, the Tigers bullpen ranks 27th in ERA and 29th in strikeout percentage in MLB.

In the postseason, it is imperative to have a trustworthy bullpen with some swing and miss, and right now, the Tigers ‘pen is a little leaky to say the least.

We are Scott Harris fans around here, but a recent quote from the Tigers President of Baseball Operations gave us a little pause:

“We’re going to do everything we can to try to win the World Series this year, but there’s a real feeling here that we’re hopefully going to keep doing our jobs, keep playing at a really high level and have multiple opportunities to try to win the World Series, because anyone who’s followed an organization for a long time knows that the best way to win the World Series is to position yourself to be in the mix in October every single year.”

On one hand, we couldn’t agree more that with the postseason being a bit of a crapshoot, the best strategy is to set yourself up to have a chance every year, instead of going all in for one year and mortgaging the future.

On the other hand is Tarik Skubal. The Tigers currently employ the best pitcher in baseball, and in case you haven’t heard, he’s only under team control for one year after this season. A healthy Skubal gives the Tigers such an advantage in a postseason series, knowing he will take the mound at least twice, that it feels borderline negligent not to ensure the team is set up for success in the postseason while he’s wearing the Olde English D. We are guessing that Harris feels the same.

The future is not guaranteed; just ask the 2025 Baltimore Orioles. In this opinion, the Tigers should be doing everything they can to maximize their window this year and next, potentially outside of trading their very top prospects. And by maximizing their window, we mean trying to deal for two high leverage relievers at minimum.

 

2. Troy Melton Debut

It felt like just last week that we were discussing Tigers top pitching prospect Troy Melton knocking on the door of Detroit, not only in this space but also in a clairvoyant piece by TMLR’s Rogelio Castillo.

Well, it turns out Melton wasn’t just knocking on the door, he was bursting through it.

After a dominant stretch of five starts with Toledo where Troy struck out 40 batters (to just five walks) in 25.2 innings, the Tigers decided to give those poor AAA batters a break, and promote Melton to the big league squad for a start on Wednesday.

It’s hard to overemphasize just how excellent Melton was in Toledo. In just over 36 innings, he posted a 2.72 ERA / 2.25 xFIP, with a whopping 37.8% strikeout rate, tiny 6.1% walk rate, and solid .237 batting average allowed. Per the excellent TMLR contributor Jerry Mackinem on X, Melton is the only AAA pitcher since 2006 to have 6+ starts, 36+ innings pitched, and a 31% K-BB% in a single season.

With the success that Troy was having down in AAA, hopes were tentatively high that the big righty could provide a boost to the Tigers rotation. And in his professional debut, despite a few hiccups, Melton showed the high upside potential that those who track the minor leagues have been seeing the past few years.

In the first three innings, perhaps due to some nerves, Troy was having the occasional issues with location, resulting in a few long balls and six runs from the Pittsburgh Pirates. But he settled in during innings four and five, providing the Tigers with some needed length as their bullpen has been taxed lately.

Overall, Melton allowed six runs in five innings with seven strikeouts and two walks. He also had a strong 29.8% whiff rate, showcasing a lively fastball that touched 99, a slider / cutter / curveball combo that all flash above average, and a splitter that does the same.

There could be a lot of moving parts over the next several days, not only with the trade deadline coming up, but also in regards to the fifth spot in the rotation. Wednesday afternoon, Melton proved that he should be in the discussion.

 

3. Other Prospect Promotions

Lost in the scuttlebutt of the draft, trade deadline and Troy Melton’s debut, the Tigers made a handful of prospect promotions this week that we consider to be muy interesante.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we found out (via the always impressive Emily Waldon on X) that Moises Rodriguez and Josh Randall were promoted to High A, Micah Ashman and Max Alba were promoted to AA, and RJ Petit was promoted to AAA.

All five pitchers have had solid seasons to date, and the promotions were not unexpected based on performance.

Rodriguez is a flame-throwing right handed reliever with a sinker (and less used four seam) that touches triple digits, that he pairs with a solid slider that gets whiffs. In just over 43 innings down in Lakeland, he put up a 3.53 ERA / 3.39 xFIP, with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and .205 BAA. He also allowed zero home runs in those 43 innings, and kept the ball on the ground with a massive 70.4% groundball rate.

Randall is a right handed starter who is into the mid 90s with his four seam / sinker, that he compliments with a strong slider / cutter combo and developing changeup. In just over 75 innings with Lakeland, he posted a 4.18 ERA / 3.52 xFIP, with a 19.6% strikeout rate, tiny 4.6% walk rate, .277 BAA, 0.96 HR/9 and solid 47.1% groundball rate.

Ashman is a 6’7” left handed reliever with a fastball that hovers in the low 90s, that he mixes with a sharp slider and changeup that flashes above average. In just over 39 innings at West Michigan, he put up a 1.60 ERA / 2.66 xFIP, with a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, similarly strong 5.4% walk rate and miniscule .157 BAA. He also kept the ball on the ground with a 47.3% groundball rate, and like Rodriguez, allowed zero home runs.

Alba is a right handed swingman with a low 90s fastball and slider, curve and changeup that all play off each other well. In 72 innings at West Michigan, he had a 4.00 ERA / 3.61 xFIP, with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, .226 BAA, 1.13 HR/9 and 46.5% groundball rate.

Petit is a 6’8” right handed reliever with a fastball that’s into the mid 90s (with natural sink), that he mixes with an above average slider and decent changeup. In just over 43 innings with Erie, he posted a 2.28 ERA / 3.44 xFIP, with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, .185 BAA, 0.42 HR/9 and 38% groundball rate.

Rodriguez, Ashman and Petit are intriguing bullpen arms in a Tigers system that seems to be full of them, while Randall and Alba are solid starting pitching prospects in a system that lacks some depth in the starting pitching department, due to some injuries up and down the minor league ladder. Like with all promotions, it will be worth tracking their progress at the next level.

 

4. Gabriel Reyes

During former Tigers GM Al Avila’s time with Detroit, the strength of the Tigers minor league system generally leaned toward pitching.

This could be due to many factors, including that under Avila, the Tigers not only used significant draft capital on pitching (every first round pick from 2015-2018 was a pitcher); but they also often targeted pitching in trades.

The pendulum has swung in the other direction since Scott Harris arrived in Detroit. Harris has selected hitters with his first round pick in the draft each of the last three years, and his most notable trades have generally been for hitters as well (Justyn-Henry Malloy, Matt Vierling, Hao-Yu Lee, Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney come to mind). The Tigers consensus top five prospects are now all hitters.

Some would argue that this change is a good thing, and there would be no argument to that argument in this corner. However, no matter the reason, the strength of the Tigers minor league system is now quite firmly on the side of hitters; so much so that as mentioned previously, pitching depth (specifically starting pitching depth) is a bit of an issue in the minor leagues, as so many promising pitchers are currently dealing with injuries.

The Tigers seemingly took aim at this deficit in the 2025 draft, as they selected pitchers with 13 of the 21 draft picks. And as we wait for those players to enter the Tigers organization, despite the current imbalance within Detroit’s system, there are still several starting pitchers already in the org that are showing a lot of potential on the mound: one of which is Gabriel Reyes.

Reyes arrived in the Tigers organization via international free agency in 2020, and impressed in his first taste of professional baseball in 2021 in the Dominican Summer League, with a 3.42 ERA / 1.97 xFIP in just shy of 24 innings.

In 2022, the Tigers brought Reyes stateside to the Florida Complex League, and despite an inflated ERA of 5.29 (in just over 32 innings), his peripherals painted a different picture (3.62 xFIP, 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 53% groundball rate).

Reyes missed the 2023 season due to injury, but in 2024, he continued to show a lot of promise, this time at the Low A level, where in just shy of 48 innings, he posted a 3.97 ERA / 2.70 xFIP, with a 33.9% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, 51.4% groundball rate and .198 batting average allowed.

Due to a strong finish to the 2024 campaign, Reyes had some helium in the Tigers organization entering the 2025 season, and so far this year back in Lakeland, he’s kept that momentum going. Including his start on Sunday (where he pitched three scoreless innings in an abbreviated start), Reyes has a 2.44 ERA / 3.40 xFIP in just over 51 innings, with a 24% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and .194 batting average allowed. He’s also given up just 0.35 home runs per nine, with an impressive 56.8% groundball rate.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Reyes promoted to High A shortly, but for now, he continues to impress down in Lakeland.

 

5. Jackson Strong

Speaking of impressing down in Lakeland, one of Gabriel Reyes’ teammates is having quite the year.

Outfielder Jackson Strong was the Tigers 7th round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, out of Canisius College in New York. Unlike some draftees in recent years, Strong made his professional debut in his draft year, accumulating 36 plate appearances in Low A and putting up a .313/.361/.406 slashline (120 wRC+) with a 5.6% walk rate and 22.2% strikeout rate.

Jackson is back in Lakeland for the 2025 season, but like Gabriel Reyes, he may not be there for much longer, as a promotion could be coming soon.

Strong has been on quite a heater lately, as during his current seven game hitting streak, he’s hitting .462/.516/.654. That recent hot streak has raised Jackson’s season numbers to .290/.395/.463, good for a 144 wRC+, which ranks 4th in the Florida State League among all qualified hitters. His walk rate is well above average at 12.3%, and Strong is also hitting a lot of line drives (28.3%) and keeping the ball off the ground (33.6%).

Jackson checked in at #21 on TMLR’s midseason prospect rankings update, and here’s what our own Jerry Mackinem had to say about Jackson in his prospect report:

Jackson Strong has tons of tools. He’s shown some pop, he’s currently hitting for average, he has tons of speed, and makes defense look easy. The thing that will hold him back is the strikeout numbers. Not many guys can survive a 30% K% in low-A ball. While he’s getting to be the average age for his league, he’s still young enough that he has time to work on it.

An elevated 29.2% strikeout rate is the main area of improvement for Strong currently, and coming from a small college, it’s not unexpected that some swing and miss would be present as he gets used to the increased competition level. But if Jackson can continue to settle in and improve the contact rate a little, he has all the tools to be a contributor at the big league level.

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