What Would a Kevin McGonigle Contract Extension Look Like?

Let’s play match-maker with Kevin McGonigle and the Detroit Tigers

Way back in June of 2014, the Houston Astros made history by signing first baseman Jon Singleton to a contract extension before he’d played a single MLB game.

It was shocking at the time, but in hindsight made some sense; if you really believe in a player, gaining additional years of team control through their prime, potentially at a discount, can be good business.

It’s certainly risky for teams, but that risk goes both ways, as the player also gives up a chance at what could be a lucrative trip through free agency when they’re in their prime.

Since Singleton’s deal, six other players have signed contract extensions prior to their MLB debut; most recently current Detroit Tiger Colt Keith.

The history of those extensions provides a good summary of how things can go when you sign a player without ever seeing them compete at the highest level.

Here is the list of players to sign an extension before appearing in an MLB game: Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery, Eloy Jiménez, Evan White, Luis Robert Jr., Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith.

The jury is still out on Chourio and Keith, but the early returns are promising; while Jiménez and especially Robert Jr. have been productive big leaguers at various times as well. We can debate on how promising the returns were for some of the others.

So we know it’s risky. But sometimes in life, you have to leave caution to the wind and take a calculated risk.

That leads us to one Kevin McGonigle.

McGonigle is the Detroit Tigers top prospect, and indeed one of the very top prospects in the game. His hit tool is regarded as potentially elite, his plate discipline is regarded as potentially elite, and this year, he showed power wasn’t an issue either by hitting 20 home runs; all while playing at least average defense on the infield.

That’s a valuable player, and one that most Tigers fans would love to see in the Old English D for years to come.

We know that Detroit Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris is willing to offer an extension to a player who hasn’t debuted yet, as he did so just last year with Colt Keith.

So what if he did the same with Kevin McGonigle? Let’s figure out what that could look like.

The extensions for Singleton, Kingery, Jiménez, White and Robert Jr. are all five years old or more at this point, and aren’t necessarily the best parallels for a potential McGonigle extension due to one factor or another.

Colt Keith was ranked #22 on MLB Pipeline’s top prospect list prior to his extension, and was coming off a monster year at Double A and Triple A as a 21 year old. Keith signed his contract for six years and just over $28 million, with three club options and escalators that could bring the total contract to nine years and $82 million.

The difference between Keith and McGonigle is the difference in their prospect ranking: while Keith was certainly highly rated as a prospect, he wasn’t a consensus top two or three prospect in the game like Kevin McGonigle is.

But Jackson Chourio was.

Chourio played the 2023 season as a 19 year old and spent most of the year at Double A, posting a 110 wRC+ with 22 home runs and 43 stolen bases. While the overall offensive numbers weren’t off the charts, Chourio was nearly five years younger than league average, and the power / speed / hit combo made him the number two prospect in the game according to MLB Pipeline.

The Milwaukee Brewers signed Chourio in December of 2023 for a guaranteed eight years and $82 million, with two club options valued at $25 million each. If the contract maxes out with escalators and incentives, the total contract could end up at 10 years and $142.5 million.

The Chourio extension provides a solid basis for what a potential Kevin McGonigle extension could look like, not only due to recency, but also due to how similarly they were regarded as prospects. So let’s get into specifics of what a McGonigle extension could entail.

Salaries inflate over time, and two years have passed since Chourio signed. Along with that, Kevin McGonigle’s camp could argue two things in McGonigle’s favor: he’s coming off a better platform year, and he also plays on the dirt.

So how about this: 10 years, $150 million.

Eight of those years would be guaranteed at $90 million, surpassing Chourio’s record for a guaranteed pre-debut contract. And at the end of those eight years, there would be two club options valued at $30 million a piece. That would bring the total potential value of the contract to $150 million, which also surpasses Chourio’s potential max contract.

If you’re the Tigers, the risk is this: you can already have McGonigle for six years, for a total that likely wouldn’t be much higher than around $30 million after three trips through arbitration. So you’re essentially buying his first four years of free agency out at $30 million per year, which is a hefty cost. But you’re also getting a player you really believe in for the entirety of his prime.

If you’re Kevin McGonigle, there’s a lot of risk also. If he plays all of 2026 in Detroit (and doesn’t get sent to the minors again), he’d become a free agent after the 2031 season at just 27 years old. If he performs at a high level, he could be in line for a 10 year deal at $250 million or more. But if he signs the extension, not only does he guarantee himself generational wealth, but he also gets one more bite of the free agency apple after the 2035 season at the latest, when he’d still be just 31 years old.

There’s risk on both sides, and it would take some pain for both sides to offer / accept the deal. But that’s how you know it’s a good deal.

We talked about the risk involved for clubs to offer extensions to players who haven’t debuted yet, and the track record is checkered. But let’s take a look at an interesting chart:

There are a few things that stand out in that chart, and the first is that in most cases, a player either had a solid minor league walk rate or a solid minor league strikeout rate prior to their MLB debut, but generally not both. For the players who didn’t take off in the big leagues, that could have been a warning sign.

The second is that of all those players, Kevin McGonigle not only has the lowest pre-debut minor league strikeout rate, but he also has the highest pre-debut minor league walk rate.

And that’s really crucial to whether or not the Detroit Tigers decide to offer Kevin McGonigle an extension. Every player that signed a pre-debut extension was thought to have a good hit tool or good power at minimum. Kevin McGonigle has both; and he also has elite plate discipline, and plays a solid infield. In theory, his profile has less risk than any of the other players signed to a pre-debut extension.

If I was a betting man, I’d wager that Scott Harris will offer an extension to Kevin McGonigle this offseason. Whether or not it comes to fruition depends on the size of the contract, and McGonigle’s willingness to give up some of his free agent years for more guaranteed money up front.

It takes two to tango, and the guess here is that Scott Harris will bring his dancing shoes.

We’ll see if Kevin McGonigle does.

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